Index
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
A
Afghanistan
Africa / Congo
Arab World - Arab
Spring
Archeology
Armenia
Artificial Intelligence – Cybersecurity -
Cryptocurrency
Asia and Cold War
Asia’s WWII
Australia
B
Brazil
Buddhism
C
Celts
China
China
- Movie Industry
China
- Taiwan - Hong Kong
China
/ US - South-East Asia
China
- Oceanic Powers
China Xi
Jinping
Chinese
Hegemony
Climate
Change
Cold War
Colonianism
D
Dalai Lama
E
East Asia
Economy,
see World - World Economy
Egypt
Empires
Enlightenment
EU - Europe
Europe
Extremism
F
Fascism,
see Second World War
First World
War, see also WWI
G
Gaza
Globalization
Global Jihad
Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty
H
Haiti
Hamas
Hawaii
Hitler,
see Second World War
Human Origins - Humanity
Houthis
I
Illiberal Democracy
India
International
Relations
International Systems
Iran
Iranian-Palestinian
Iraq
Islam
Israel
And Hamas
Israel
In Gaza
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
J
Japan
K
Kurds
L
Latinoamerica, see also South
America
M
Middle East
Moscow To
China
Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis
N
Napoleon
NATO
North
Korea
Nuclear
Peril
O
Oman
P
Pacific War
Pakistan
Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem
Political Qigong
Psychology - Psychiatry
Putin
Q
Qatar
R
Russia - Central Asia
Russia - Putin
Russia - Tsar
S
Second World War, see also WWII
Slavery North America
South America
South Asia
Spy
Agencies - Secret Intelligence Services
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
T
Taiwan
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand
Turkey
Turkey In Context
U
UAE
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United Nations, UN
United States
V
Venezuela
Venice
W
Warsaw
Pact
World - World Economy - History - Politics
WWI,
see also First World War
WWII,
see also Second World War
Z
Zionism
A
Afghanistan
Africa / Congo
Arab World - Arab
Spring
Archeology
Armenia
Artificial Intelligence
Asia and Cold War
Asia’s WWII
Australia
Afghanistan Still Threatens The Region And Beyond.
Why Pressure Is The Best Way.
The Forces That Could Threaten The
Taliban’s Control.
What can be said about US involvement and the current situation in
Afghanistan
What next with Afghanistan
Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan
A Sort
Of 'Out Of Africa’.
The Youthful Continent.
Africa’s Ukraine
Dilemma.
From Past To Next Fifty Years.
Deep-Rooted Factors. (Part 3)
Trade,
Colonialism And Uneven Development. (Part 2)
The New
Out Of Africa Theory. (Part
1)
Belgium’s
Africa Museum Had a Racist Image. Can It Change That?
Head of UN,
Ban Ki-moon, seeks to appoint investigator for fatal crash of Dag
Hammarskjöld
Case Study:
The French Rwanda File:
South
Africa and AFRICOM
The Hamitic
theory of race and the role it played in the Rwandan Genocide:
Case Study P.1:
The Creation of Belgium
Case Study P.2:
The Start of Belgian Empirialism: When
Texas was to be a Belgian Colony
History of the former Belgian Congo
P.1:
Egypt in Central Africa
History of Central Africa
P.2:
King Leopold's Media
our earlier comment about Blood Diamonds
The
Coming Arab Backlash.
The UAE And
Its Talest Building In The World.
Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals Won’t End Conflict.
Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
How To
Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.
What
Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Enter: Arab
Spring 2011
Göbekli Tepe revisited part three
Göbekli Tepe revisited part two
The world’s earliest cities and what it means for today
Ancient Globalization
In the
Beginning
Genes or Behavior?
The Archeology of Worldwide War and Peace
They Built
the First Temples?
The
Earliest States
Truth In History: Inventing Archeology
Case Study:
Archeology of the Middle East Today
Nationalism: Ancient Egypt, Judea, Armenia, Japan?
‘King
Arthur’
Click to enter:
Fringe Archeology Update
'Archeological
Fantasies' continue:
The Mother of all Theocratic States: Lemuria
September 2004, Cult Archeology: Civilization One Book (excerpt)
Neo Paganism
From Mircea Eliade to Carlos Castaneda
The Truth About Carlos Castaneda
The Myth of the Noble Savage
Reader Comment: The Myth of the Noble Savage
Celts and Druids Speaking
From N. Pennick to Celtic/Northern Literature
The Temple of a Nation, Stonehenge
And Who Owns Ancient Remains?
Neo-Shamanists and Pagans Today
Why We Never Found Atlantis
The Atlantis Syndrome P.1
The Atlantis Syndrome P.2
The Atlantis Syndrome P.3
Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.1
Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.2: Cocaine
Gateway to Atlantis P.3: Seven Cities, El Dorado
Gateway to Atlantis P.4: Urheimat der Arier
Cuba's Atlantis
Why, and what happened
Major Case Study:
So what really happened in Armenia
(Updated version)
Case Study:
Armenian Genocide
The New Empires Of The Internet.
Cryptocurrency And The Bankman-Fried
Case.
Bydance And TikTok.
The Test.
The New Threat.
Generative Artificial Intelligence.
How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform
The Military.
The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence
(AI) Part Two.
The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part One.
There Is No Time To Waste.
Get Ready For Artificial Intelligence.
An Extensive Overview Of How Crypto-Currency Fraud Functions.
The Illusion Of China’s AI Prowess.
The Battle For Brains.
But There Is A Solution.
Blockchain
Analysis.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Four.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Three.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Two.
Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes.
Tackling
The 2023 Problem Of Cybersecurity.
Weaponized Artificial Intelligence.
The logic of human nature and
causal networks
Dismantling the myths
of AI Part Two
Dismantling the myths of AI Part One
The question about current medical
efficiency and that of digital authoritarianism versus liberal democracies
Introduction
P.2 The Malay Theatre
P.3 The Vietnam Theatre
P.4 The Korean Theatre
P.5 Indonesia and China Burning
P.6 1945-1950
P.7 Vietnam War and World Decolonization.
Was the Cold War inevitable?
…investigae in the following part
Introduction: Gorbachev's Last Days
Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating
the Beginning of the Cold War P.1.
Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating the Beginning of the Cold War
P.2
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.1
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.2
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.3
Major Case Study:
From hot to Cold War: Asia's WWII
Genocide
In Australia.
B
Brazil
Buddhism
Bolsonaro Redux.
Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
The
Current Situation.
Far-Right
Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.
Why the political climate in Brazil matters to the rest of the world
Discussion, Buddhism
A new understanding of
Buddhist's past and at least one possible future
C
Celts
China
China
- Movie Industry
China
- Taiwan - Hong Kong
China
/ US - South-East Asia
China -
Oceanic Powers
China Xi
Jinping
Chinese
Hegemony
Climate
Change
Cold War
Colonianism
Major Case Study:
The less-known aspects of early Irish
and Scottish Nationalism
Recherche sur ce qui ne va pas avec les
Celtes
Competition With China To Be Won.
Misconceptions About China.
China’s Economic Collision Course.
Cold War China Xi Jinping And The United
States.
President Xi's Thought.
From Moscow To China.
But It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
Chinese Spy Operations.
But Where Is This Going?
Will Xi’s Military Modernization Pay Off?
Beijing Seeks To Extend The Hegemony Of
Mandarin.
More Likely To React To External Threats.
The Real Toll Of Beijing’s Belt And Road.
Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
The End Of China’s Economic
Miracle.
A Form Of Preparation For War.
The Global South.
Living On The Edge.
Blinded By The Fight.
How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.
U.S.-Chinese Rivalry.
China’s Affinity With Russia Is
Over.
The Virtue Of Low Expectations.
China Is Ready For A World Of
Disorder.
What Does The West Know About Xi’s China?
Why China Is Rewriting The Law Of The Sea.
The Technology Trap.
The U.S.-Chinese Economic
Relationship.
Lifelines And Chokepoints.
The Consequences Of China’s
Peace Deal.
The Consequences Of China's
Demographic Decline.
How To Spy On China.
The Bad Advice Plaguing President Xi.
The Question Of Chinese Military
Support For Russia.
Russia And China Behind The Scenes.
The New Age Of Great-Power
Competition.
Spy Ballons TikTok And Chinse Intelligence.
Xi Jinping Preparing China For
War.
China Will Lead The Next
Technological Revolution.
Sweeping
Belt And Road Initiative.
Solidify
Global Divisions For The Coming Decades.
China Is Practicing How to Sever
Taiwan’s Internet.
Possibility That Chinese Spy
Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.
Why Are Meteorologists Tracking
The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?
China’s Indo-Pacific Folly.
On The Leaks Of A War With China
Plus A Recension In Europe.
What The Cities Of The Future
Will Look Like.
The Looming Taiwan Crisis.
Detention
Camps.
The
Story of Why The Chinese Can Travel Again.
What
Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.
Can
China Take Taiwan?
Why It
Is Of Importance.
The
Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New
Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.
The
Meaning Of China’s Dangerous Decline.
Why
Saudis Don’t Want To Pivot To China.
The Nowhere Road With An Answer
To It.
It Took
Just Seven Words That NBA-China’s Viewership Approaching Pre-Banned Levels.
How China Manipulates The Media.
We
Address Why There Is No Inevitability In China's Decline To India's Rise.
China's
Economy.
Will Xi
Learn From History?
What Is Achievable In East Asia?
China
The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.
Why XI
Might Prefer Détente.
What To
Expect From Xi's Third Term.
What To
Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.
China’s
Past And Xi’s Future.
Reactions To China's Spy
Operations. Part 5
The Circumstances That Allow
Chinese Spy Operations To Thrive. Part 4
The Way To The White House. Part 3
The Chinese Police Service
Stations. Part 2
Chinese Spies Part One. Part 1
How To Build A Better Order.
We
Analyze The Reasons Why.
Can A
War Over Taiwan Still Be Avoided?
The Revelations Of
Document Number Nine.
Large
And In Charge
The
World According To Xi.
China's
COVID-19 Politics To The Test.
China's
Growth In Peril.
China's
Global Security Initiative.
The
Forbidden History
The
Future War Between China And The US.
Xi
Jinping And Present-Day China.
Point Of
No Return.
The
United States Does Not Need To Beat China.
Whereby
The Truth About Taiwan Is.
China
Needs To Reach An Understanding And Russia Does Not.
Nancy
Pelosi’s Visit To Taiwan.
What Is Happening Here?
Xi Unleased.
Whose
China Sea Is It?
Facing A Window Of
Vulnerability Over Taiwan.
China Could Invade Taiwan.
China’s Motivations.
Geopolitical
Consequences Of Taiwan War.
Why
Should Taiwan Be Seen As A Part Of China?
What the situation looks like going forward
China's pursuit of greatness
part two and conclusion
China's pursuit of greatness
China the Pandemic and Sovereignty
The Actual History Behind The Seven Years In Tibet With Brad Pitt.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Four.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Three.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Two.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy.
The Taiwan Conundrum.
Taiwan Today.
Once More The
Question Of Taiwan.
The Trouble With The South China Sea.
Taiwan Is An Important Partner.
Xi Jinping's Hawkish Forces He Can’t Control.
How To Avoid Catastrophe.
Don’t Panic About Taiwan.
The Looming Taiwan Crisis.
What
Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.
Can China Take Taiwan?
Major Case Study:
The lead up to present-day China and the
making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis
After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?
Taiwan going forward
What the real future of Hong Kong might look like
Mapping the new reality of Hong Kong
How China will handle
its future development
Understanding modern
China
From Vancouver to
Auckland and Hong Kong understanding the new Chinese nationalism
Will China now crush
the protests in Hong Kong?
What does it all mean
Increased friction in
the South China Sea and why
Outlook for the world
China, US, Europe, N.Korea,Venezuela, and the way forward with Iran
Today’s legacy of the
Tiananmen crisis
Unveiling China’s big
science
Is China planning to
take Taiwan by force?
Thus has China’s new
Silk Belt and Road failed? Updated
15 Feb. 2019
China’s ticking
time-bomb. Updated 4 Jan. 2019
China’s New Nationalism
China has “no historic rights” in
South China Sea: Continue…
From Chinese Yuan
adjustment to the fall of world markets; the lesson to learn
.. the Huns to their Mongol related
origin in what is now China Continue ...
The
Philippines In The South China Sea.
How concerned should we be when Chinese growth runs out?
The importance of South and East Asia
Which way will the West turn?
Left or right?
Understanding the 100 years of the current
regime in China Part Two
Understanding the 100 years
of the current regime in China
China’s multifaceted great power projection
The rivalry between America and
China in South-East Asia
Where will the China/US
competition lead the world?
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China
standoff Part Three
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China
standoff Part Two
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China standoff Part
One
South-East Asia between China and the US
Major Case Study:
Developmental forces in East and West as
drivers of psychological change
Major Case Study:
The re-invention of Chinese History,
Nation, Language, and Territory Part Three
Major Case Study:
The re-invention of Chinese
History, Nation, Language, and Territory
Major Case Study:
The secrets of China’s new maps unveiled
Will a coming conflict make the military
disasters of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq pale in comparison?
China’s new claim about the border with
Bhutan
China’s larger geostrategic game
The fall out from the current
crises
Are the U.S. and China headed for a Cold
War?
The 21st Century Arms Race
From bloody nose attack to nonmilitary
options? Plus
update 18 January.
Will the Standoff Lead to a Second
India-China War? With
Update 29 Aug. 2017
South
China Sea: Risks of a clash caused by China’s
paramilitary ships that could bring U.S. forces to bear in defense of U.S.
allies
Uighur terrorist attack in China, a
shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to
top it off, a coup in Thailand
..China considers its territorial
waters
..We must go to war with Japan…History
as a political weapon:
China Today
The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror
The
East Asian World Order
The concept of Han Chinese
China's
New Nationalism
The Early
Chinese Empires
The true
voyages of Zheng He
There now
might be increased diplomatic pressure on Beijing to reduce its presence in
the South China Sea
Globalization and Empire:
Introduction
P.1 Indian Ocean's Business as Usual
P.2 Indian Ocean From Business to Power
Broker
Oceanic Powers, US/China: Conclusion
Case Study
Chinese Religion: Daoism:
Historical Overview of Daoism
Origin of
Daoism
Daoist
secrets of ritualized alchemy to internal Neidan meditative alchemy
Tantric ‘internal’ alchemy P.1
Tantric practice in China P.2
The Politics of Qigong:
The Taiping
Rebellion, Boxer Uprising, and Falung Gong
From Red Turban to Ming Tax Collecting
The Island of Seven Cities:
Research Report:
China Beyond Zheng Hi
From Persia to China
Research Report P.4:
China's Reinvented Historic Legacy
Case Study:
When China Woke Up to the World
Chinese and other Empires of the World
What Next
with China? P.1.
What Next with China P.2.
China Xi Jinping And The
United States.
But
It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
…Their Failure To Act Fast Enough
On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.
Preparing For A Future Of
Extreme Weather.
Measure The Harm Of Climate
Change.
The search for Nextpolis
Apocalypse Never:
Why Planet earth is shutting down
A history of the end of the world
From
climate change denialism to the Brazilian rainforest fires and solutions
going forward
Here
is a blueprint as to how to approach the problems:
The
Weather as influenced by El Nino going forward
The
world going forward:
Putin and the Cold War Part Two
Putin and the Cold War Part One
The economy of Colonialism:
Major Case Study:
Part one, Part two,
Part three
The economics of colonialism part three
The economics of colonialism part two
The counterfactual view that explains
colonialism
D
Dalai Lama
The Next
Dalai Lama.
The future Dalai Lama
E
East Asia
Economy,
see World - World Economy
Egypt
Empires
Enlightenment
EU - Europe
Europe
Extremism
The Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere, Part One Of Two.
What Is Achievable In East Asia?
Countdown
Egypt: Why Egypt's Mursi will either resign or be sacked on 3 July
What next with Egypt and Syria to Jordan
Consequences for the balance of power
between the Brotherhood and the military
Protesters Storm Muslim Brotherhood Offices
Ghosts Of Empires Past.
This Is
Particularly True For Empires.
The transformation of the Russian Empire
part two
The transformation of the Russian Empire part one
The Holy Roman Empire, the Reformation, and the birth of the
Netherlands
Beginnings and endings of Empires
The concept of
Han Chinese
The East
Asian World Order
Whose Enlightenment?
When Europe Fell Apart.
The Promise And Peril Of EU
Expansion.
The Truth About European
Colonialism In The New World.
How The EU Will Learn To Wield Its Power.
Europe’s Geoeconomic Revolution.
Coudenhove-Kalergi And The Pan-Europa Movement.
Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
Time To Expand The UN Security Council.
Europe’s Real Test Is Yet To Come.
Poland 1941.
Europe And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.
On The
Leaks Of A War With China Plus A Recension In Europe.
The
German Connection.
How The
War In Ukraine Will Remake The Continent.
The
Gripping Story Of How A Plot Would Take Over Germany.
Germany’s
Unlearned Lessons.
Germany
Just Averted Its Own Jan. 6, And Maybe The Fourth Reich.
Inflation
And Economic Uncertainty.
Why This
Could Last For Years.
Greece expected to strike a deal with the EU
The
fate of Europe in 2013
Will
the European Crises soon be over?
The
Start of Europe’s fragmentation
Why the European crisis has been solved
(for
a while).
Europe’s Crises Worsening
The financial crisis Europe faces it has
not wanted to admit even exists (with graphs)
Eurozone’s Debt crisis no
longer just about Greece. Continue…
Introduction
Critical
Investigation:
Research Report: Conflict and Ethnicity
Research Report: Ethnoclass in Eastern Europe
Religion and Modern Politics P.1: Bakunin's
Christianity
Religion and Modern Politics P.2: From 'New
Right' to Habermas Today
P.1: The New World of 'Sociology'
P.2: Signor Mazzini I Presume?
P.3: Social Democrats, A Political Religion
Updated:
P.4: The 1914 Clash of Civilisations
True History of the European Community,
P.1: Its WWI Origin
True History of the European Community, P.2: Which Europe?
P.1
Globalization and Economics: A Search for the Holy Grail?
Cold War and Modern Historiography
Including
major case study "From Belgium to Kososovo and back"
Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.1
Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.2, Part 3-a, Part 3-b:
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Religion
P.1
The Future of Democracies Around the World
How To Understand Extreme
Right-Wing Parties.
F
Fascism,
see Second World War
First World
War, see also WWI
Revisiting the First World
War Part Three
Revisiting the First World
War Part Two
Revisiting the First World War
Major Case Study:
A
new investigation about the First World War
Major Case Study:
Revisiting the Origins of the
First World War
Major Case Study:
Beyond the Treaty of Versailles
Treaty of Sèvres on 10 August 2020
new complex patterns and alliances were formed (many of them in the Middle East)
…an
interesting section about “The Flemish Lion”
The tribulations and consequences of the
Treaty of Versailles
Why World War I was pivotal to the creation
of the modern Middle East
World War I became known as the war to end
all wars
A complete timeline of what happened
Shantung the Versailles Treaty and the
Manchurian episode
A Somewhat Hidden History of the Balfour
Declaration
How the First World War started P.9
How the First World War started P.8
How the First World War started
P.7
How the First World War started P.6
Leading up to the First World
War P.5
Leading up the First World War P.4
The almost First World War P.3
The almost First World War P.2
The almost First World War P.1
The conspiracy theory that gave rise to
Hitler:
P.1 Reparations and the famous Article 231
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.8:
British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the
Syria crisis today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon
today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.6:
The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.4
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.3
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.2
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.1
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.6:
The Paris Peace Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.2:
The Arab question and the ‘shocking
document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the
Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
The second First World War
The Real Russian Origins of the First World
War
A new investigation why the First World War
broke out
G
Gaza
Globalization
Global Jihad
Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty
Witness To Palestine.
The Way Going Forward In Gaza.
The Food Weapon.
Palestinian Option.
How Israel Fights.
Israel And Hamas.
America’s
Hypocrisy On Gaza.
The
Path To A Regional Order.
Is this the end of Globalization?
The
'out of Eden' peopling of the earth
… For example:
Historical Overview
Historical Truth in the Age of
Globalization, P.1
The Myth of 1492 - Historical Truth in the
Age of Globalization, P.2
The Myth of The Industrial Revolution -
Historical Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.3
What the East Thought the West - Historical
Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.4
P.1, Mutual Contact
P.2, Violent Occupations
P.3, Broken Treaties and the Sex Trade
P.4, Disease and Changing Worlds
P.5, Controlling Landscapes
P.6, Administering People
P.7, WWII of Indigenous Populations
P.8, Enter the 21st Century
History of Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First
Trade-Wars
History of Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First
Multinational Companies.
"Globalization Flat or Round?"
What do Naomi Klein's "No War" have in common with with
two other recent books: "The Fire This Time: U.S. War Crimes in the
Gulf" or "The Iraq War : A Military History"?
…others are in complete denial of what is happening to them or soon
will happen
Postscript: Where did all the Money Go?
Why this complicates the reaction to the
Paris attacks:
Paris and the end times of ISIS:
…why Islamic history
The Future of the Islamic State:
The Salafist Resurgence
Jemaah Islamiah and Global Jihad
Case Study:
Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of
the Middle East
Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, and Salafi Jihadism:
Interview with Eric Vandenbroeck
Radical Islam and Global Jihad Today
Report:
Beyond
Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle East
The Islam Code P.1.
The Islam Code P.2.
Conclusion:
The Islam Code P.3.
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.1
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.2
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.3
Pictural Overview of the Middle East Today
Global Jihad P.1
Global Jihad P.2
Global Jihad P.3
Global Jihad P.4
Global Jihad P.5
Global Jihad P.6
Global Jihad P.7
Conclusion and Implications:
Global Jihad P.7
The apocalypse within:
Updated
Case Analysis:
SA in Indonesia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Chechnya
Future World Jihad P.1
Future World Jihad P.2
Future World Jihad P.3: The Nazi Connection
Future World Jihad P.4: Jerusalem’s Armageddon
Future World Jihad P.5: What Now?
…Evidence
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, plus more
Global Jihad
Case Study:
Central Asia P.1
Central Asia P.2
Central Asia P.3
Major Researchproject: Future World Jihad P.5
The Quest for World Jihad: Introduction
The Quest for World Jihad P.1.
The Quest for World Jihad P.2.
…we described the significance of the Ottoman Empire in the context
of today's world jihad
…let alone an inevitable, consequence of World War 1. The Quest for World Jihad P.3
…six part investigation of British encounters with Islamic warfare
The Quest for World Jihad P.4
Bin-Laden’s Bookshelf p.1 and 2
…2006 30 Jan. al-Qaeda nr.2 on bin-Laden's Truce''
Updated
The
Background Story of 7/7/2005 in the UK:
Today's War on Terrorism
A New 'Jihad' Wave?
Pakistan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.1: Egypt and the Sudan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.2: Somalia and Lebanon
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.3: Wahhabi's and Shi'ites
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.4: Iraq
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.5: Afghanistan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.6: Strategic Lessons
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich"P.1
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.2
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.3
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.4
A Convergence of Militant Islam and the New Right?
fringe groups not yet mentioned
The concept of Han Chinese
The East Asian World Order
H
Haiti
Hamas
Hawaii
Hitler,
see Second World War
Human Origins - Humanity
Houthis
Who Will Lead Haiti?
Israel And Hamas
From Pearl Harbour On.
The True Story Of Hawaii.
2020 9
July:
Rediscovering Hawaii's place in the pacific
Rediscovering Hawaii's place in
the pacific
And Then
It Got Cold.
The Mystery Of Inequality.
The Myth of Human Origins
When humanity almost got wiped out
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
I
Illiberal Democracy
India
International Relations
International Systems
Iran
Iranian-Palestinian
Iraq
Islam
Israel
And Hamas
Israel
In Gaza
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
The Rising Threat Of Illiberal
Democracy.
The British ‘Company’
And The Conquest Of India.
The Fate Of Over 1.4 Billion
People Hangs In The Balance.
Modi's New Messenger.
The Teacher To The World.
The Story How Hardeep Singh
Nijjar Was Killed In Canada, September 2023.
India’s Massive Military Restructuring.
Will India Surpass China To Become The Next Superpower?
India As It Is.
India Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing.
India’s Great-Power Opportunity.
Kashmir Today.
The Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.
Why It
Is Of Importance.
The
Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New
Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.
A Critical Look At Narendra Modi's
India Today.
India’s
Ruling Party Is Losing Control.
Why I Killed Gandhi.
A New Look At The History Of Partition.
Major Case
Study:
A movie, a new book, and what India stands for
today
Ladakh fighting
Major Case Study:
The Hindu right in context
Could India and China Go to War?
Kashmiri militants
What is really happening in India?
The empire within an empire that changed
the future fate of India
The impeachment of the first
governor-general of Bengal
Jammu and Kashmir
What happened with Kashmir and
why it matters
“I think it is probably a god-gifted
ability”
A concern is that it might leed to more
violence in Sri Lanka
The 10th anniversary of an assault that
raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was about Kashmir
Revisiting India’s Harappan
civilization .. where the Indo-European languages came from, enter:
..."Indian
Mujahadeen" like recent
attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur
Why Orissa
Introduction
What is happening in India today?
What happened with Kashmir and why it matters.
Update
… India's tech sector following explosions
…began on Wednesday, 26 November
…repercussions in reference to Kashmir
…including that the Indian air and missile forces were
placed on war footing
Kashmir is a victim of the disputed division of British
India during the transfer of colonial power in 1947.
Partition of British India's Geostrategic
Cause.
…Through
Burma and Back
India: The Clash Within: The World's
Largest Democracy?
Deciding to go for facts rather than
fiction today:
The Eurasian Industrial
Revolution.
Bose
movie, published in: Return of the Swastika, 2007 P.1
From Japan to Burma, P.2
From Nagaland to Burma, P.1
From Nagaland to Burma, P.2
sometimes also encountered in our research
report about Europe
Politics in S.Asia P.1
Politics in S.Asia P.2 post-1966 Indira
Gandhi
Politics in S.Asia P.3 Competitive Populism
…in
Madras Henry Olcott stated…
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.1
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.2
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.3
…Fascism and Communism
Matthew Specter And Jonathan Kirshner’s New
Books.
…the rise and fall of a principle of
hierarchical sovereignty. See:
…vassalage system employed in Europe
some fifteen hundred years later. See:
S.America that led up to the League
of Nations Conference at Montevideo. See:
…most likely resulting in failure. See:
…boundaries between political units
will increase. See:
The state is not the only form of
political unit to have existed…See:
… former Yugoslavia … See:
… crisis in Yugoslavia -- the
question we next answered is why. See:
… a nascent American imperial that
represents the status quo. See:
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.1: Introduction
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.2: China and Tibet
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.3: Islamic Empires
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.4: Christians and Pagans in Europe
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.5: Protestant Reformation
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.6: From God To Proto-Nationalism
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.7: Demand for increased boundaries
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.8: Federalism and its Consequences
…disintegration of Yugoslavia…
State Behaviour in the International System P.1
…legal tradition…
State Behaviour in the International System P.2
…during 2003 Iraq Standoff.
State Behaviour in the International System P.3
The Kyoto Protocol and Africa.
State Behaviour in the International System P.4
United States, the United Kingdom,
Australia, India, and Sierra Leone.
State Behaviour in the International System P.5
Conclusion and Outlook:
State Behaviour in the International System P.6
From Belgium to Kosovo P.1
From Belgium to Kosovo P.2
From Belgium to Kosovo P.3
From Belgium to Kosovo P.4
From Belgium to Kosovo P.5
From Belgium to Kosovo P.6
From Belgium to Kosovo P.7
Introduction
Conclusion
Escalation Could Set Israel And
Iran On A Collision Course.
What
Narges Mohammadi’s Nobel Means For Iran.
Iran’s New Patrons.
The Iran Gamble.
We Investigate A Sorbid History
Under Pressure.
Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.
An Even More Intransigent Regime.
Iran’s
Question Of Legitimacy.
Iran’s Anti-Veil
Protests Have Already Succeeded.
The enduring relationship between China and Iran
What next?
What to make of the Iran protests?
Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control
of the Middle East
Iran - Gaza Offensive: Why the Iranian connection will complicate
the situation
Iran threatens to block Strait of
Hormuz oil route, yet
why they will not
Military steps up plans for Iran attack?
Introduction
Modern
Iran P.1
Modern Iran P.2
The Iran Papers P.1
The Iran Papers P.2
The Iran Papers P.3
The Iran Papers P.4
The Iran Papers P.5
Conclusion: The Iran Papers
…Iran…
Iran-Chinese relationship
Iran
and its conspiracytheories
Why Tehran’s Hard-Liners
Choose To Escalate.
Why Iran And Israel May Not
Be Finished.
The Cascading World.
Iran's Strategy.
A Detente Option For
Iran.
The
Iranian-Palestinian Marriage Of Convenience.
What is to follow after Iraqi Prime
Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi's resignation
The End
of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part Two.
The End
of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part One.
Early Islam and the decay of Rome part two
Major Case Study:
Early Islam and the decay of Rome part one
These Are The
Three Options.
Only Way Is To Defeat
Hamas.
Israel And Hamas.
Stuck
In Gaza.
Why Israel Will Remain In Gaza.
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
|
The Coming Arab Backlash.
Jordanian Fighter Pilots.
Dilemmas Of The Gulf
States.
So What Is It All
About?
Relations With Israel And
American Leadership.
Israel's Cyberabilities.
The New Capacity.
Witness To Palestine.
Where This War Will
Go Next?
The Food Weapon.
Palestinian Option.
How Israel Fights.
Israel And Hamas.
America’s
Hypocrisy On Gaza.
The Path To A
Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
Gaza Makes A Nuclear
Iran More Likely.
Regional
Conflicts Resemble World War II.
Why Peace Remains
Possible.
The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
The Choice Cannot Be
Clearer.
Gaza Historical Role.
But Far Greater Risks May
Emerge If He Doesn’t.
Why Israel Will Remain
In Gaza.
Researching Israel’s Goals And
Strategy.
How Hamas Has United Israelis
Behind The War.
The Iranian-Palestinian Marriage
Of Convenience.
The Way Going
Forward In Gaza.
The
Future Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
Why Israel Won’t
Change.
Protest The Netanyahu
Government.
What Does It Mean To
Defeat A Terrorist Group?
The Gaza Case.
It Is A Pattern That Is
Already Playing Out Again.
Why Did Antony Blinken Attend A
Meeting In Doha?
The No Blueprint
Assault.
The Protests In Israel.
Duelling Speeches.
The End Of Israel’s Gaza
Illusions.
What To Do About Gaza, And
What Gazans Think.
Israel Enter Gaza Imminent.
Misinformation About
The Israel-Hamas War Is Flooding Social Media.
Erdogan And The
Hamas-Israel War.
Escalation Could Set Israel And
Iran On A Collision Course.
The
Israeli/Hamas Conundrum.
Return The Gaza Strip
To Palestinians.
A Strategy Beyond Revenge.
Why Washington
Should Restrain Israeli Military Action In Gaza.
Time To Step Back From The
Brink.
Hamas Rise To Power.
How The Conflict
In The Middle East Came About P.1.
Crises In The Middle
East.
Gaza Redux Part One.
Hezbollah, Israel,
And Tehran.
The Why And How Of The
Surprise Attack On Israel.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
What A Saudi-Israeli Deal Could Mean For The Palestinians.
Debating Israel’s One-State Reality.
Confronting A One-State Reality.
The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.
Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.
How To Prevent A Third Intifada.
The Holy Land and its contestants
Major Case Study:
A critical history of Palestine P.2
Major Case Study:
A critical history of Palestine
P.1
The story of British
Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.2
The story of British
Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.1
Jerusalem Unveiled
Paris Peace Conference redux 15
Jan.2017
The Hajj, Muslim worshipers at the
Grand Mosque in Mecca: What
two million people are about to do here
The Palestinians' Real Enemies
The Gaza offensive: Egyptian-Israeli relations, other groups
than Hamas, wider relevance or importance
A Brief History of the Jerusalem Problem
The Problems with Israel and
Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel
The Problems with Israel and
Palestine P2: Geostrategy of the Palestinians
…Israeli military incursion…
P1: Geostrategy of Israel
J
Japan
Tokyo
Aims To Counter Growing Chinese And North Korean Aggression.
The Consensus From Canberra To Tokyo.
The Japanese Attempt to Solve the Mongol Question
Major Case Study:
Asia after China
Japans dealing
with China
Identity in Japan
Anglo-American ascendance
The U.S. financial siege of Japan:
The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was
…Turkish and Japanese foreign
policies, and why: Continue...
Cold War Japan
…demanded that Japan open its doors to
foreign trade
The U.S. financial siege of Japan:
The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was
Making the New Japan:
The New Japan P.1:
The New Japan P.2:
Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony:
An Assessment P.1.
Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony: From Japanese
to Chinese Containment?
An Assessment P.2.
K
Kurds
What next with the Kurdish conundrum?
L
Latinoamerica,
see also South America
Who Will Lead Haiti?
Bolsonaro
Redux.
When The
Past Does Not Go Away.
The Haitian Government Is Dependent On International Power.
Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
The
Current Situation.
Far-Right
Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.
A
History Of Making Bad Situatiuations Worse.
Latin America 2022.
Democracy Or Authoritarian Populism?
M
Middle East
Moscow To
China
Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Seven.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Six.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Five.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Four.
The Middle East Gamble.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Two.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part One.
The Path To A
Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
The Problems With
The Middle East.
Part One:
How The Conflict In The Middle East Came About P.1.
Crises In The Middle East.
Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals
Won’t End Conflict.
Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
How To
Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.
What
Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Making of the Middle East's hidden history Part Two
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part One
Why World War I was pivotal to the creation
of the modern Middle East
Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control
of the Middle East
The Syrian civil war and the Middle East
going forward
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.8:
British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the
Syria crisis today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon
today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.6:
The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.6:
The Paris Peace Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.2:
The Arab question and the ‘shocking
document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the
Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
Does the Middle East Need New Borders?
The contradictory web that fuels conflicts
in the Middle East
Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin
America
Case Study:
Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of
the Middle East
Pictural Overview of the Middle East
…conflict in Yemen seems anything but over:
Jerusalem Unveiled
Paris Peace Conference redux 15 Jan. 2017
The
Syrian civil war and the Middle East going forward
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1
The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3
The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4
Geopolitical
Implications
The
Shi’ite-Suni Devide
Case Study:
Shi'ite Lebanon and Hezbollah
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.1
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.2
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.3
Unknown to most we checkep up who and what Hezbollah really is
Who/What Hezbollah really is: The Larger Picture
…the new conflict between the post-Christian
West and Islam…Case Study
Research Report:
The Iran US Conflict
also in the case of China…
Research Report:
The Iran US Conflict Today
Israel is the 'Zion' of prophecy, part of God's plan
We frequently pointed out…
Case Study:
Pan-Arabist Media
The New Pan-Arabism P.2:
Research Report:
Saudi-Arabia
and Terrorism:
World Jihad
From
Moscow To China
Myanmar
- Rohingya Crisis
|
The
Future Of Myanmar.
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Five
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Four
Major Case Study:
Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Three
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Two
Major Case Study:
Myanmar and
the looming war for its borderlands Part one
What Myanmar as a failed state may look like:
What next with Myanmar
The ongoing tragedy that faces the Muslim
Rohingya communities of western Myanmar
Major
Case Study:
The
consequences of the Arakan Campaign
…in reference to faulting Myanmar
...where she is planning to deny any wrongdoing by the
armed forces and defend Myanmar against charges of ethnic cleansing or
genocide
The politics of statelessness investigation
The Rakhine/Rohingya Conundrum
What next with Myanmar and its Chinese
influence Plus update 2 February
Myanmar update
Myanmar P.6:
Mawlamyine and beyond
Myanmar P.5:
Past the Golden Rock to Karen (Kayin) State
Myanmar P.4:
The Challenge of Unity in a Divided Country
Myanmar P.3:
Two kinds of Monks
Myanmar P.2:
To Myitkyina and Kachin State
Myanmar P.1:
Discovering the background from where
today’s Myanmar evolved
China/US, 2013 projection for
Myanmar/Burma
Myanmar's Shame:
…the Panglong agreement
Aung San was assassinated just over five
months later.
…crisis or political uncertainty, was the military. Continue…
….most Burmese watched and waited, untroubled by the small flurries
of activity among Europeans. Continue...
…inter-communal hatred versus the Karen and others. Continue…
…and thus contributing to the confusion. Continue…
…Asia weighed heavily on the minds of the British. Continue...
…as they had been doing for years. Continue…
…or minority tribal leaders to hold out for too much. Continue...
…of a favorable conjunction of the stars. Continue...
…Burma soon had all but become one of the first 'failed states’. Continue...
The return of Japan post WWII. Continue...
N
Napoleon
NATO
North Korea
Nuclear Peril
Enter Napoleon:
The West Needs A Strategy For
After The Counteroffensive.
How To Keep The Country Safe Without NATO Membership.
Today's NATO Meeting In Vilnius.
The Next Few Years Will Be Crucial.
NATO’s East Deterring Russia.
Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.
Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
The Leaked Documents.
How To Protect Ukraine Without
NATO Membership.
Explaining The NEW NATO Strategic Concept.
What the situation looks like going forward
What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
A Form Of Preparation For War.
The Korea Model.
Today's Situation In Korea.
Major
Case Study:
The
Korean War in context
The news from N.Korea
The USA “ready to fight tonight” claim
Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or
intervene P.1
....N. Korea … Continue…
What Proliferation
Means For Global Security.
The Return Of Nuclear
Escalation.
Confronting The New Nuclear Peril.
O
Oman
Major
Case Study:
Charting
the future of Oman
P
Pacific War
Pakistan
Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem
Political Qigong
Psychology - Psychiatry
Putin
The Pacific Space.
The five days that made Pearl Harbours as
a key for the worldwide war.
Part Eight Can a potential future Pacific War be
avoided?
Part Seven Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Six Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Part Five Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Four Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Part Three Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Two Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Part One Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Imran Khan’s Long March.
The 10th anniversary of
an assault that raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was
about Kashmir
Predicaments of
Pakistan in Afghanistan
For an
overview of Pakistan enter here:
Introduction:
…to support an Islamic State in Pakistan
…controlled by British political
officers with the help of tribal chieftains...
Continue P.1
…Blood and chaos were
everywhere."
Continue P.2
…some ways to think about territory,
history, and ethnic belonging. Continue P.3
…key theories of nationalism.
Continue P.4
Who Made Pakistan? P.5: The Militarization of Pakistan
P.6 India's Backlash
…under
civil/military rulers before turning Islamic during the last decade and a
half. Continue P.7
With the case of Indonesia, India, and Pakistan…
Case Study:
The
Politics of Qigong
Rationality
and progress
The logic of human nature and
causal networks
So what to do about bias?
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Three
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Two
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part One
So what is with Psychological Science?
Here are eight ways how we can form more
accurate views of the world
The Secret of Positive Thinking, Self Help
books and Happiness
The Politically Incorrect Guide to
Psychology and Psychiatry
From New Thought to Self
Improvement Books
Putin And The Right
Q
Qatar
Two
longtime rivals battle by proxy and why this crisis will get worse
Case Study:
Qatar's
master strategy or opportunism?
R
Russia – Central Asia
Russia - Putin
Russia - Tsar
The Five Futures Of Russia.
Too Many European Politicians Are
Failing To Confront Russia.
Like In The First World War?
What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
What The West Still Gets Wrong
About Russia’s Military.
What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.
The Wagner Paramilitary Group.
Russian Ethnonationalism Chauvinism.
The Dangers Of Russian Disorder.
Think Twice Before You Launch A
Conflict.
The War Of Endurance.
Blinded By The Fight.
Crimes Without Punishment?
China’s Affinity With Russia Is
Over.
The Treacherous Path To A Better Russia.
How Wars Don’t End Ukraine,
Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.
Prepare For A Brutal War.
1984 In Russia Today.
Stalin’s Secret Force.
The Latest News.
The Question Of Chinese Military
Support For Russia.
A Partial Victory Will Solve
Little.
The
Coming Russia Disintegration.
The
Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.
Russia
And China Behind The Scenes.
The
Limits Of Economic Warfare.
How To
Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.
The
Russia That Might Have Been.
Looting
As A Potential War Crime.
How Long
Can This Not-Quite-Total War Be Sustained?
Russia’s
Anti-Jewish Dimension.
Europe
And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.
The War
Will Go On Into Next Year.
Russian
Patriotic Death Cult.
Russia
Is Losing The War.
Can
Moscow Learn From Its Failures In Ukraine?
Export
Control Cooperation From Allies.
They Can
Do Business With.
2023 Is
The Decisive Year.
Why The
Sanctions In Russia Are Already Biting Hard.
How
Putin Is About To Lose His War.
The War
Will Likely Continue Until The End Of 2023.
To
Prepare For Russia’s Collapse.
Russia's
Target Of 300,000 Additional Troops.
The
Russian Crisis.
To Know
Stalin And What Followed.
To Recognize The Stakes.
We Have To Prepare For Russia’s Defeat But Also Its Return.
A Decentralized Entity Can Reform Itself From The Inside Out.
In 1954, Crimea Was Transferred From Russia To Ukraine.
A Re-Assessment.
Why Policymakers Around The World Should Take Note.
Revisiting the Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Four.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Three.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Two.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part One.
What should not be taken off the table when
talking with Putin
We show in seven maps how Ukraine came about
Major Case
Study:
Putin Has Long Tried to Balance Europe. Now He’s Working to Reset It
What the situation looks like going forward
Ukraine today
Why Putin believes Ukraine was given to Russia
Putin and the Cold War Part Two
Putin and the Cold War Part One
The transformation of the Russian Empire
part two
The transformation of the Russian Empire part one
Why Putin claims that most of Ukraine “was given”
to Russia
Gorbachev’s reforms
Imperial Russia and Qing China
Revealing Harbin’s
interesting Russian history
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.7
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.6
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.5
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.4
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.3
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.2
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.1
The Svalbard/Spitsbergen Saga
Major
Case Study:
Was the Cold War inevitable?
A German and British plot to take the last Tsar
Ukraine as a test case
Major
Case Study:
When
Spies invaded Russia P.6.
British spycraft in Bolshevist Russia
Major
Case Study:
When Spies
invaded Russia P.5.
What must develop into a civil war
Major Case Study:
When Spies invaded
Russia P.4.
How North
Russia evolved into its military phase
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded Russia P.3.
The alleged
protecting of supplies propaganda
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded
Russia P.2.
To mold
irregular warfare into a method which honored the Imperial myth
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded Russia P.1
Major
Case Study:
Why is Ukraine so important to
Russia
From Rasputin to little known aspects of Nicholas’s
II abdication and the situation in Russia
British Imperial Agents invade
Russia P.2: The
British Banking scheme to control Russia’s economy and the Allied
intervention
British Imperial Agents invade
Russia P.1: here
the lesser known aspects surrounding the events of 1918
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.4: From White
resurgence to the Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.3: The rise and
fall of Komuch’s People’s Army
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.2: The
Counterrevolution and the Anatomy of Allied Intervention
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.1: Why and how the Czech Legion conquered the Siberian
railway
Concerns Russia could use the alleged plot in
Crimea to justify more military incursions into the Ukraine
…Russia vis a vis a US plane: We
tell you why it happened
Russian Aristocrats, Putin, and European
extreme right wing parties
The main question now is whether Russia
will push back with what power it has left or find a way to compromise with
this shifting worldview
Case Study:
The ‘decline of the West’ and a
look behind Putin’s new Eurasianism
Intelligence scoop of what is happening
with the Ukraine and the standoff between Russia the US and Europe:
Resurgence or is Russia Doomed? Continue:
Enter the Unfolding Crises in Europe and
the Ukraine/Crimea:
The Qaddafi libel against Gorbachev and the
last days of the Soviet Union
…Russia wants to increase its
influence. …China might be concerned, plus… Continue:
Russian Eurasianism: A New Ideology of
Empire?
Introduction
The Next European Battleground?
Russia’s Geostrategic
Predicament and Power Today P1
Finding the West
…following part
Introduction: Gorbachev’s Last Days
Case Study:
Russia’s Move Towards the Right
Global Jihad Case
Study:
Central Asia P.1
Central Asia P.2
Central Asia P.3
Research Report:
Russia’s
Geostrategic Roots Today
European policy that is about to change now …Comment
…more questions than answers.
Comment P.1
Comment P.2:
…transforming the face of Eurasia
Predicting the next half Year:
Russia’s New Map: The Third Rome
A History
of Eurasianism
The New Map of Russia
Russia’s
New Map P.2: A History of Panslavism
Russia’s
New Map P.3
World
Revolution: The Roots of Modern Russia
How the
End of the Cold War Occurred
After the
Cold War: America over the Brink
What Led To The Dissolution of
The Soviet Union 1991
Central Asia: Why The Great Game
Heats Up
Why The Great Game Heats Up P.2: Azerbaijan
Putin And The Right.
Bolshevik Rule.
Too
Many European Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.
What Does Putin Want?
What Putin And Kim Want From
Each Other.
What It Will Take To Break
Putinism’s Grip.
Why There Can Be No Negotiations
With Putin.
The Beginning Of The End For
Putin?
Crisis Abates, But Questions Remain.
Is Worse To Come From Putin?
How Putin Revived Stalinism.
Dictator Without Borders.
Putin’s Forever War.
Putin, The Suspect.
Putin Remains In Day-To-Day
Government.
Sanctions Can Help End Putin’s Imperial Pretensions If The West
Keeps Its Nerve.
The War
Started Due To Putin's Policy Failure.
War in
Ukraine Has Revealed About Putin’s Regime.
Indications
Putin Decided To Give The Missile That Downed MH17.
They Can
Do Business With.
2023 Is
The Decisive Year.
How
Putin Is About To Lose His War.
Calling
Out Putin's Excuse.
Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And
More.
Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.
The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy
Lines.
Divide And Conquer.
The
Polish Incident That Is Changing It.
We Investigate The
Nonproliferation Conundrum.
Why
Putin Gladly Tells You Is No Khrushchev.
What Is
Needed For The Russian Economy To Grow.
China
The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.
Putin And Stalin.
Turkey
And Russia: Friends For Now.
What To
Do About Putin.
We
Assess The Possibility Of Regime Collapse.
The
Outcome Of Significant Wars Ultimately Comes Down To Attrition.
The Way
Forward For Russia.
Putin
Puts Faith In The Poor Man's Weapon.
The War
Might Last Another Year And What That Means.
Our
Source In The Kremlin Speaks Up.
What
Happens To Russia’s Periphery.
Why
Today It Becomes More Likely Putin Will Lose This War.
A Fear
Greater Than Putin.
The End Of Putin’s Bargain With The People.
Climbing The Escalation
Ladder.
How To
Build A Better Order.
Policy For A World In
Crisis.
Putin's Private Army.
Why Is There Little Hope For A Quick
Rebound.
Wait For The Tide To Turn.
They Will Be Front And Center In Domestic And
Global Politics.
Naturally, There Can Be No Excuse, Only Ruthless
Punishment.
Assessment Of How The Russia-Ukraine
War Is Progressing.
Peter Took Russia Into The Future. Putin Pushing It
Back To The Past.
Russians Are In For A Rude Awakening This Fall.
There Is A Risk Of Serious Harm.
China Needs To Reach An
Understanding And Russia Does Not.
Bad Timing Of Global
Agriculture And Food Supply Chains.
Russia’s Security Concerns
And Allay Its Anxieties.
China’s Motivations.
Fantasy Is Not History.
When The Economic Recovery Comes.
Putin’s Entire Ukraine Invasion Hinges On The Coming
Battle Of Kherson.
Convicted For The Usurpation Of Power.
This Will Put One Side At A Disadvantage.
Russias Fifth Service.
The Ukraine/Russia War.
Fighting Climate Change Through Trade.
Time For New Trade Agreements.
What Next With The World Energy Situation.
Whose Middle East?
What If The War In Ukraine Spins Out Of Control?
Can Austria Stay Neutral?
Explaining How Far NATO Can Go.
Western Fears Of Putin.
Why Libya Could Be Putin’s, Trump Card.
The Case For Diplomacy.
He Has None.
This Is Not A Victory.
The Key To Victory In Ukraine.
A
Need To Build A Better World Order.
A Global Cold War.
Part Eight
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Seven
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Six From
1917 To 2022.
Part Five
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Four
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Three
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Two
From 1917 To 2022.
From 1917 To
2022.
The Hidden History Of The Glastonbury Festival.
Can Putin
Survive?
Why The
Russian Army Is Facing A Long, Grim Fight In Ukraine.
Why Do Russian Sanctions Persist As A Tool Of Diplomacy?
Why Ukraine Reached A Pivotal Moment.
Why Kyiv Needs An Immediate Solution.
The Why Of The Road To War.
The Putin Challenge.
Putin’s Challenge To The West.
Why Putin’s Ukraine War Is An Inflection Point For The West.
Why It Is Too Soon For A Lasting Diplomatic Settlement.
What Candidate Status Would Mean.
Russia’s Early Failures Doesn’t Make It Less Dangerous.
Russian Army Would Have To Collapse.
The End Of Climate Policy.
Why Does China Neither Endorse Nor Condemn Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s War?
What
The G7 Foreign Ministers Will Do.
Belgian Lessons.
What Will The Consequences Of Mobilization Be?
The Kremlin’s Questionable Worldview.
Understanding The Kremlin’s Worldview.
Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part One.
The Re-Invention Of History And National Identity.
Why The War In Ukraine Is Shifting.
Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Three.
Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Two.
Understanding Putin’s Worldview Part One.
The Wargame.
How Serious A Treat Is Putin.
The War About Food Supplies.
Infiltrating The Highest Level Of Government.
Meanwhile, Russians Are Fleeing Their Country In Doves.
Revealing Putin’s Inconsistencies While Striving For A New
Empire.
Geostrategy Of Russia.
Putin’s Victory Speech.
The Murder Of General Wrangel An Equally Famous
Ballerina.
The Atomic Option.
A “New” War, Twenty Years In The Making.
Exposure To Russian Intelligence Services.
Major Case Study:
The Mongolia Factor.
Moscow’s Suez Moment.
What
Putin Has In Mind Next.
Who Is The Tsar Of Russia.
Life For The Tsar.
S
Second World War, see also WWII
Slavery North America
South America
South Asia
Spy Agencies - Secret Intelligence
Services
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
The Special Operations Executive In France
And Elsewhere.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Six.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Five.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Four.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Three.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Two.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part One.
Major Case Study:
The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences
Part Two
Major Case Study:
The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences Part One
The post-WWII new order part two
The post-WWII new order part one
The old order is crumbling, and a new order
is rising
Axis states understood they
settled the moral low ground.
The Second World War created the
conditions for transforming Europe and the entire global geopolitical order.
Creating a new
world order part one.
How the various countries
justified WWII Part One.
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Four
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Three
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Two
Major Case Study: From the Manchurian Incident to
Word War II Part One
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Sixteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Fifteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Fourteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Thirteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Twelve
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Eleven
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Ten
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Nine
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Eight
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Seven
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Six
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Five
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Four
… Trianon (1919 and 1920)
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Three
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Two
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part One
How Britain hoped to avoid war
with Germany in the 1930s
Major Case Study:
The Vatican archives and World War II
When Britain gave Hitler the
go-ahead
Hitler’s Bolshevism and the myth of the
Jewish Conspiracy
Major
Case Study:
London, Madrid, and the creation of
Washington, D.C.
Case Study:
S.America P.1: Overview
Case Study:
S.AmericaP.2: Economic Musings
Case Study:
S.America P.3:
The Road to Independence
Case Study:
S.America P.4:
Che and Castro
Case Study:
S.America P.5:
From Chile to Brazil
…and distribution networks: Research Report
Hugo Chaves
Anonymous activists threaten to
expose Mexican drug cartel secrets, here the
context:
A Nuclear Collision Course In South Asia.
Introduction
... traders that "turned
sovereign". And Burke sought the impeachement of the companies
Governor, Warren-Hastings...
History of
Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First Trade-Wars
History of
Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First Multinational Companies
So let us
start with the most important one, language
… a gendered/racial categorization of the
Indian populace by the British gave rise to several stereotypes like the
manly Sikh, the devious Maratha, and the loyal Gurkha
…a reaction to the warfare 'with France in
Europe', that 'The British Company' proceeded to involve itself more
actively with 'local politics.' This becomes particularly apparent when one
doesn't only consult British, but also French sources
Hindutva
The Secret
Backround of the Kashmir Problem
…overview of Atlantis and
Lemuria:
'World
Hindu Council'
Bengal: Making a New Hinduism:
Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.1:
Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.2
Politics or Culture?: Hindu and Muslim
Fundamentalism Today
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: The Anti Aryan Myth
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Seek Mason, Will Travel
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Are you a Sikh?
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Polynesian Aryans
Reformed Aryans, in East
and West: The Orion Myth
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Aryan Christianity
our overview about India
Spy Agencies – Secret Intelligence
Services
|
The Noor Inayat Khan
Story.
The Spying Program.
How To Spy On China.
The Harrowing Story Of A Double Agent.
Possibility That Chinese Spy
Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.
Why Are Meteorologists Tracking
The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?
Codename
Madeleine.
The
Secretive PWE Political Warfare Executive.
The
Inside World About Spy Agencies Revealed.
Meet the new world today’s spy agencies
part three
Meet the new world today’s spy agencies part two
Important
Case Study:
Meet the new world today's spy agencies
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
|
The
Path To A Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
Regional Conflicts Resemble World War II.
The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
U.S. Strikes Targets
In Syria.
Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis.
Time To Move On.
What Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part Two
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part One
..conflict in Yemen seems anything but over
The Syrian civil war and the Middle East
going forward
Did Aleppo's Grozny moment arrive? If
there was ever any hope of salvaging the latest cease-fire in Syria, there
isn't anymore
Investigating the never-ending Great War
As suggested
by me earlier … International
rivalry and the battle for Syria
...Aleppo, question is for how long
…entered the Ramouseh Artillery
Base… Who
are the rebels and how will Assad and Russia respond
.. Syrian Civil War…The
make or break battle currently underway, rebels appear to be losing
FM denounces "cynical game" of Syrian
regime and rebuked Moscow
How close is ISIS to defeat, and will
Turkey invade Syria?
Does the Middle East Need New Borders?
Fighting in Syria seen problematic for
Damascus while exit strategy for Assad under discussion
Obama’s Syria and What the Confrontation
Will Look Like:
The Sunni-Shia struggle
The Arab World in Transition 2013
Why the War in Syria will not end with the
removal of the al Assad regime
Why Assad Won’t Use Chemical Weapons, yet
why we should still be worried
The contradictory web that fuels conflicts
in the Middle East
Upcoming turmoil in Asia?
Lebanon and what next with Syria: Charting
the course of future events
Background forms the rebel Free Syrian Army
supply lines in Lebanon
T
Taiwan
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand
Turkey
Turkey In Context
Major
Case Study:
The lead up to present-day China and the
making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis
After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?
Taiwan going forward
Is China planning to take Taiwan by force?
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand, China, And The US.
Uighur terrorist attack in China, a
shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to
top it off, a coup in Thailand
Thailand and the Political and Economic Volatility
in Important Markets
The insurgency in
Thailand: Multiple Dilemmas
Turkey In Context.
Will Erdogan Stay in Power?
Erdogan’s
Foot-Dragging On Sweden And Finland Is Causing Headaches For Western
Leaders.
Turkey
And Russia: Friends For Now.
Turkey in context today
Conclusion
about what is really happening in Turkey
Turkey's
government fears second coup
Turkey’s
new Sultanate
Why
Turkey shot down the Russian Jet
… more
than a year ago
…Turkey
and Armenia…
Turkish bid for EU membership …. today:
Introduction
Evolving Turkey P.1
Evolving Turkey P.2
Evolving Turkey P.3
Evolving Turkey P.4
Evolving Turkey P.5
…aligned itself
…former Islamist
Conclusion and Bibliography
Case Study:
…Turkish and Japanese
foreign policies, and why. Continue...
Erdogan
And Hamas.
Turkey In Context
U
UAE
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United Nations, UN
United States
The UAE And Its Talest Building In The World
The Way Forward In
Ukraine.
Obstacles To Diplomacy In
Ukraine.
What NATO Membership Will
Require.
Winning The
Battle But Losing The War.
Why The War Might Defy
Expectations.
Preparing For American
Abandonment.
The Quiet Transformation.
The Ukraine-Taiwan
Tradeoff.
All This Could
Encourage Further Adventurism.
Negotiations Over
Territory.
The Missing Escalation In
Ukraine.
Will The West Abandon Ukraine?
What Ukraine Needs Right Now Is Time.
Ukraine And Next.
Back In The Ukraine Trenches.
The War Of Endurance.
Postwar Ukraine.
End In Sight For The Ukraine War.
Ukraine And The American War Machine.
How Wars Don’t End Ukraine,
Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.
How The West Can Secure
Ukraine’s Future.
What Really Happened To The Kakhovka Dam?
Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.
Vexing The Ukraine War On The Ground.
How Ukraine Learned To Fight.
Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive.
A Loophole In The Law.
Ukrainian War Going Forward.
Ukraine Today.
Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
A Partial Victory Will Solve
Little.
Waiting On Weapons.
Ukraine And U.S. National Security.
The Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.
A Plan For Getting To The
Negotiating Table.
The Promise Of Military
Adaptation.
How To Protect Ukraine Without
NATO Membership.
Ukraine’s
Determination.
How To
Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.
The
Conversations When Ukraine Wins.
Fortifying
Ukraine.
Make The
Position Of The Russian Military Untenable.
Key To
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
The
Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.
The War
Will Go On Into Next Year.
An Even
More Intransigent Regime.
Ukraine’s
Coming Electricity Crisis.
What
Ukraine Needs To Liberate Crimea.
Breakthrough
In Ukraine.
Kennan
On Ukraine.
Reading
Like A Spynovel This is What Happened.
Why Some
Wars Don’t End.
Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And
More.
Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.
The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy
Lines.
Divide And Conquer.
How The US Can Help.
The Situation Ukraine Is Facing This
Winter.
We Analyse What The Result Of The
Airstrikes Will Be.
Putin's Atomic Gamble.
Game-Changer For Current And Future
Conflicts.
How Ukraine Can Take Back All Its
Territory.
Ukraine As A Poison Pill For Putin.
Putin’s Eventual Replacement.
Putin Threated Nuclear Response.
The UNGA Meeting.
The Nuclear Strike Aimed At Shock?
Mobilize, Retreat, Or Something In Between?
Why Support For Ukraine Will Withstand
Russian Pressure.
Is Ukraine Going To Win This War?
Africa’s Ukraine Dilemma.
Xi Jinping's
Strategic Predicament And The View From Washington.
From Ukraine
to Taiwan.
Putin's Victory
Speech.
How
The World Lost Faith In The UN.
The Secret History Of The
Glastonbury Festival.
Sunak Hopes To Mend Fences With Europe.
The UK Today.
Why The House Of Windsor Will
Ultimately Fall.
Can Sunak Save Britain?
The
Limits Of Monarchy.
The UK
Can Be Leading By Supporting.
The rise and fall of the Thomas Cook Group
Boris Johnson’s Majority Falls to One Seat,
Heightening Chances of an Election
Boris is back…Today’s
cabinet appointments sends a clear signal however
The next steps of Theresa May
"We're out", well sort of. The
Implications and Germany's nightmare:
What will happen after Brexit:
The Patron’s Dilemma.
The Politicization Of
The U.S. Military.
Japan Defense And China
Springboard.
US New World War.
Explaining America’s Global Role.
The
New American Way Of Trade How The USMCA Does What NAFTA Couldn’t.
Bracing For Trump 2.0.
The West Needs A Strategy For
After The Counteroffensive.
Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Can America Protect The Peaceful Transfer Of Power?
How To Boost Cooperation.
The Formula For Managing Migration.
The Overlooked Influences On Donald Trump.
Think Twice Before You Launch A
Conflict.
The Global South.
Living On The Edge.
How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.
Ukraine And The American War Machine.
The Virtue Of Low Expectations.
The U.S.-Chinese Economic
Relationship.
Spread Too Thin?
Ukraine And U.S. National Security.
A Plan For Getting To The
Negotiating Table.
The New Age Of Great-Power
Competition.
The Leaked Documents.
America Fill The Missile Gap.
The Promise Of Military
Adaptation.
How Elites Misread Public Perceptions Of The War.
We Investigate A Sorbid History
Under Pressure.
The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.
China Is A Paper Tiger.
Technology Defines The Future Of
Geopolitics.
Does Technology Win Wars?
Rattled By China, The U.S., And Its Allies Are Beefing Up Defenses
In The Pacific.
How
Biden White House Operated Under Cloak-And-Dagger Secrecy.
Far-Right
Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
America
Is Back.
U.S. To
Boost Military Role In Philippines As Fear Of Taiwan Conflict Grows.
Export
Control Cooperation From Allies.
What To
Expect From Xi's Third Term.
What To
Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.
Have Americans, As Is Claimed,
Been Conned?
Is A Major War To Come?
The United States Does Not
Need To Beat China.
A candid look at the why two atomic bombs
What the situation looks like going forward
Revisiting the Paranoid Style in American
Politics
The election could be a highly fluid situation
The Cost of Chaos review
Major Case Study:
The secret background of the
attack on Pearl Harbor part two
Major Case Study:
The secret background of the
attack on Pearl Harbor part one
Major Case Study:
The origins of Trumpology
Why Washington should push for a resolution
to a disastrous war
The racist lie that is fueling the US
terrorist attacks
Includes update 20 April 2019: Why Robert Mueller is ending his report
How Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati officials
influenced Trump to strike a bargain with Putin
What Robert Mueller Knows
The Trump/Russia investigation
what can be said today
Woodrow Wilson, Versailles, and the making
of Eastern Europe
American Ascendance P.1: Asia in the New
Spatial Order
American Ascendance P.2: The China Blockade
American Ascendance P.3: The Japan Blockade
American Ascendance P.4: Opium War
The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise
Overview P.1
The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise
Overview P.2
…over the course of the Mexican
Revolution
...glaring
misadventures in Iraq
America at a Crossroads P.1:
The Truth about the Cold War
America at a Crossroads P.2:
Superpower Politics
America at a Crossroads P.3:
Anti-Americanism
America at a Crossroads P.3:
The Last
'WWIII'
Possible Future Conflicts from a US Point of View
V
Venezuela
Venice
The worsening situation will make 2015 a
crucial year for Venezuela:
The history of Venice beyond 2021
W
Warsaw
Pact
World - World Economy - History - Politics
WWI,
see also First World War
WWII,
see also Second World War
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part three
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part two
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact
The Rest Of The World.
Why It Will Not
Surprise.
The Rising
Threat Of Illiberal Democracy.
…Their Failure To Act Fast Enough
On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.
Why Academic Links Are Essential In A Fragmenting World.
The World Outside The Great Powers.
Why It’s So Hard To Forecast
Authoritarian Aggression.
How To Reduce The
Vulnerabilities That Free Markets Create.
There’s No Such Thing As A Great Power.
The State Of The World.
The World To Come.
Why The World Still Needs Trade.
Political Violence In Authoritarian Societies.
The Defence Of Global Order And Address Global Crises.
Make The Center Vital Again.
How To Survive A Great-Power Competition.
Managing A Multipolar World.
How The Fight For Resources Is Upending Geopolitics.
Tackling The Opportunity For Change.
Counter
Autocracy.
2023
Anual Forecast.
The
World Has Changed.
Those
Who Cannot Remember The Past Are Condemned To Repeat It.
Understanding The World By Means
Of A Geopolitical Approach.
This
Highlights A Socio-Economic Challenge That The World Needs To Tackle Before
It Gets Worse.
The
Long-Term Trend Is Concerning.
What To
Expect In 2023.
Remaining Robust Enough When
Malign Actors Are Denied Access.
The
World Faces A Zeitenwende.
Let Us
Be The Last Generation To Do So.
The Profound Economic And Financial
Shift.
The Direction Of The World Economy.
The
Global Effects Going Forward.
What the situation looks like going forward
China's pursuit of greatness
Economics and real-time revolution
From East to West and back to
East?
A few countries to look out for the next
six months
How the end of an age is not the same as
the end of history
Major Case Study:
The outlook of the world in 2020
What 2020 will bring P.2
What 2020 will bring P.1
From new economics to new
politics
Major Case Study:
North and South Korea, China, Russia, the
US, Iran, Mexico, India, Central and South America, Turkey, and so on
A look at other developments going forward
in 2017
Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin
America
Apocaliptic Politics During the 20st
Century and Beyond
World Finance
Introduction
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of Stock Markets and Economics
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of Inshurance Risks
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of the Housing Bubble
Following an assessment of current finance crash;
the international situation,
Europe, China/Japan and S.America, plus Korea…Continue...
The
Genetics of Finance: Putting the Credit Crisis in Perspective
WWI, see also First World War
|
The tribulations and
consequences of the Treaty of Versailles
Why World War I was pivotal
to the creation of the modern Middle East
Shantung the Versailles
Treaty and the Manchurian episode
A new investigation why
the First World War broke out
The Real Russian Origins of the
First World War
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.1
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.2
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.3
What led to the First
World War P.4
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’,
Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.2:
The Arab question and the
‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad
and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the
‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.6:
The Paris Peace
Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.6:
The importance of oil, the
‘Arab question’, and the British
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian
issue in Lebanon today
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.8:
British rule, Arab
Spring-revolt, and the Syria crisis today
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4
WWI's Religious Ideology
From Colonization to de-Colonization
…newly researched documents...took this a step further
From Shandong to Versailles:
China's participation in the First World War
Why We
were Entering a Century of Genocide
The
second First World War
The conspiracy theory
that gave rise to Hitler:
P.1 Reparations and the
famous Article 231
Investigating the
never-ending Great War
WWII, see also Second World War
|
From Hitler to Stalin P.1
From Hitler to Stalin P.2
From Hitler to Stalin P.3
From Hitler to Stalin P.4
From Hitler to Stalin P.5
The Nazi Documents P.1: The Russian Connection
The
Secret War Between the Allies:
The Final Secret of WWII: The Murder of
Hitler
The Secret Archive
Hess/Hitler overture to England
The Mistake of Peter Longerich
Alternative Histories of the 20 to 21
Century we start with the making of WWII today
…the Cold War: Continue:
…Comment
Asia and Cold War
The
Vatican’s War P.1
The
Vatican’s War P.2
The
Vatican’s War P.3
From Belgium
to Kosovo Research
The
Vatican’s War P.4
The
Vatican’s War P.5
The
Nazi/Vatican Connection P.6
The
Valkyrie Debate P.1
The
Valkyrie Debate P.2
The
Valkyrie Debate P.3
Protestant
Nazi Hopes P.1
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.2
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.3
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.4
Protestant
Nazi Hopes P.5:
Conclusion
Z
Zionism
The way to Zionism Part Three
The way to Zionism Part Two
The way to Zionism
Esoterica
going Mainstream
|
Esotericism,
Freemasonry, and Conspiracy
…main aspects of Western esoteric traditions
have their foundations in antiquity…
Case Study:
From Numerology to Magic and Esoteric Christianity
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.1
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.2
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.3
New History of the Hermetica P.1: Hermes
Times Three
New History of the Hermetica P.2: The
Sabian Myth
New History of the Hermetica P.3: Middle
East Disporea
The Rosicrucians
Freemasonry
The Occult Revival in America P.1
The Occult Revival in America P.2
Alleged New Age Religions
the
Goetheanum
Harry Potter 6 and Gnosis: The Search for
the Higher Self
…founder of Scientology L.R. Hubbard to
create a 'moonchild' by means of 'Magic'…
first ever history of this idea rooted as it is, in Paracelsian
Magic
Reincarnation: The Invention of a Modern
Myth
New Age or Emerging Religions?
The 1920's Vinland
Map - A Legend is Born
Alternative
History books:
The Nazi Occult Myth
ABC News UFO's: The Day After
UFO's as Conspiracy Theory
From Esotericism to Pop Culture
From Esotericism to Pop Culture P.2
Update
From
Aleister Crowley to Scientology
Case Study:
New Religious Movements –
Rudolf Steiner/Waldorf Schools P.1 of 2
We successfully questioned the term "Gnostic" and
"Gnosticism"
Dan Brown's two recent books
Case Study:
New Religious Movements -
Spiritualism
P.1
Case Study:
New Religious Movements:
Spiritualism
P.2
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.3
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.4
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.5
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.6
P.1: The Making of Spiritism
P.2: Christian Spiritist Conversion
P.3: To England Now
P.4:
Occult Orders
P.5: Taming the Wild Spirits
P.6: Revelation of the Revelation
P.7: Text Related Occult Conversions
P.8: An Occult Sociological Profile
P.9: Phenomena on Trial
P.10: Theosophical Fights
P.11: Nazis and The Occult
P.12: Cults of the Self
P.13: The Esoteric
P.14: The Never Ending Mystery?
P.15: Psychic Androginity
P.16: Cosmological Searches
Comment: The Forgotten Monarchy Discovered
From Robert Anton Wilson to the Da Vinci Code Prank: The Californian
Illuminati
Introducing
H.P. Blavatsky
H.P.Blavatsky
and her 'Masters' of the Theosophical Society
Search
For Astral Projection: The Investigation
The
Hodgson Report
The
Hodgson Report P.2
The
Hodgson Report P.3
Finding
the Theosophical Masters and Mahatmas
Blavatsky's
Final Work
After
Blavatsky P.1: Krishnamurti, the Fashioning of a Mahatma
After
Blavatsky P.2: Fashioning the Future Race
Race and Literary
Nationalism
Enter
Scientology:
Investigating,
UFOs Seeing is Believing?
The
Secret of the Cabalah/ Qabbalah
New History
of Jewish Kabbalism
Establishing the Christian Kabbalah, P.1: Rewriting Frances A. Yates
Establishing
the Christian Kabbalah, P.3: F.M. van Helmont
Zosimos
of Panopolis and the Book of Enoch
While somnambulist ventures like the
Course in Miracles have been well researched…
The Key of Solomon P.1: The Making of Witchcraft
The Key of Solomon P.2: Occult Science
The Key of Solomon
P.3: Magical
Revival
Conspiracy
Theories P.1
Conspiracy
Theories P.2
Conspiracy
Questions or Answers?
The
Rise and Fall of the Silver Shirts
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.1
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.2
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.3
Neoplatonism, Philology and Nationalism
Geschichtliche Entwicklung des Ariermythos
The True Story Behind "The Aquarian Gospel" Movie:
Conspiracy
Theories
DaVinci
Code Matrix
From
Invented Witchcraft To The Carlos Castaneda's legacy
The
'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman:
The
'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman P.2:
Inventing
The Mormon Tradition
Major Case Study:
Paganism and Early Christianity in N. Europe P.2
The
Positive Thinking Movement P.2
Case Study:
Ungern P.1: The Revolution
Self Help Books as Popular Culture: Introduction
Self
Help Books as Popular Culture P.1
Self
Help Books as Popular Culture P.2
|
|
For your own
comments about related subjects, you can contact us via:
ericvandenbroeck1969@gmail.com
23
April 2024: The global innovation and creativity
necessary to solve the world’s challenges thrive best in open societies.
Transparency, the rule of law, and official accountability are the foundation
of healthy, sustained global economic growth. The current system of
alliances, although insufficient to ensure global peace and security, has
helped prevent war from breaking out among the world’s great powers for more
than 70 years. China has not yet managed to convince a majority of the
planet’s people that its intentions and capabilities are the ones needed to
shape the twenty-first century. China Today And
Tomorrow.
23
April 2024: Top Israeli officials were caught off
guard by reports that Washington is considering cutting off U.S. aid to a
Jewish Orthodox battalion accused of committing human rights abuses in the
West Bank. Judicial Reforms As War Of Words
Escalates.
22
April 2024: The nature and degree of popular
anger, the decline of U.S. primacy and the collapse of its legitimacy, and Arab
regimes’ prioritization of their domestic survival, as well as regional
competition, suggest that the new regional order will be much more attentive
to public opinion than the old. The Coming
Arab Backlash.
21
April 2024: It appears that the war in Gaza is
winding down. It is by no means certain that it won’t re-ignite with an
assault on Rafah, as Israel has threatened, or that the low-intensity
conflict between Israel and Hezbollah won’t spiral into a full-fledged war. But
for now, as a testament to the prioritizing of realpolitik and economic
interest by Arab leaders, these ties have stood the test. Jordanian Fighter Pilots.
21
April 2024: What Underground
Empire and Digital Empires suggest is that technology can help
international relations theorists better understand the power debates that
have haunted them since the days of Sparta and Athens. The New Empires Of The Internet.
20
April 2024: Muslim rule was first introduced
to South Asia when Arab forces seized control of the Sind region of
the southern Indus Plain (now in Pakistan) in 711. Around the same time, the
greatest empires of ancient India were based in the Gangetic Plain which,
along with the Indus Plain, boasted the earliest urban centers of the
subcontinent. The British ‘Company’ And
The Conquest Of India.
20
April 2024: A massive explosion leaves a huge crater
in an Iraqi military base after a suspected Israeli strike.
20
April 2024: Security sources in Iraq say a huge
blast has hit a military base that houses pro-Iranian militias. Indeed, the
fastest route to attack targets in the north of Iran would be through Syria
and Iraq. The Israeli air force would have to suppress Syria’s air defenses
either by jamming or by a cyberattack, as in 2007 when Israel destroyed what
it said was a nuclear reactor being built in Syria. Israel “switched off” a
large section of Syria’s air defense radar network beforehand. Dilemmas Of The Gulf States.
19 April
2024: As long as Iran continues to press in its strategy
of encircling Israel, and funneling advanced weapons to militant proxies that
threaten Israeli population centers, Israel will be compelled to pursue its
countervailing campaign against Iran. Why
Tehran’s Hard-Liners Choose To Escalate.
19
April 2024: Biden also announced an investigation
into China’s shipbuilding and logistics sectors, which the U.S. United
Steelworkers Union and others have been accused of unfair trade
practices. The Chinese Embassy in the United States condemned Biden’s decision.
The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that such actions
could increase inflation and worsen already fraught bilateral relations. So What Is It All About?
18 April
2024: Last weekend, there was a lot of
commentary on social media and elsewhere expressing amazement at a new Middle
East in which countries of the region coordinated an effort to thwart Iran’s
attack on Israel. There is something to be said for that. But what’s more
amazing when one takes a step back is that war has not changed the region
that much. Relations With Israel And American
Leadership.
18
April 2024: Vladimir Putin happened to turn 71
last October 7, the day Hamas assaulted Israel. The Russian president took
the rampage as a birthday present; it shifted the context around his
aggression in Ukraine. Perhaps to show his appreciation, he had his Foreign
Ministry invite high-ranking Hamas representatives to Moscow in late October,
highlighting an alignment of interests. The
Five Futures Of Russia.
18
April 2024: The Biden administration has repeatedly
said that its support for Israel remains “ironclad” but noted that the United
States does not support an Israeli counterattack against Iran and will not
participate in such an attack. It did not specify whether that extended to
all forms of attack, including cyber operations, or just to kinetic military
operations. Israel's Cyberabilities.
17
April 2024: Even though Israel and its partners
say they downed more than 99 percent of the hundreds of drones and
missiles that Iran fired at it over the weekend in a major moment of
escalation in the Middle East, Israeli leaders say they have no choice but to
respond. These Are The Three
Options.
17
April 2024: After the past two years of carnage in
Ukraine, all of this may be so much water under the bridge. But it is a
reminder that Putin and Zelensky were willing to consider extraordinary
compromises to end the war. So if and when Kyiv and Moscow return to the
negotiating table, they’ll find it littered with ideas that could yet prove
useful in building a durable peace. The Way
Forward In Ukraine.
17
April 2024: The Middle East Could Still Explode.
Despite the abject failure of the Iranian attack, Israel might still feel the
need to hit Iran somewhere to demonstrate that it will never be deterred from
responding to restore its deterrent. Why Iran And
Israel May Not Be Finished.
Iran attack shows
Israeli deterrence policy ‘shattered’, Netanyahu critics say.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel’s
War Leaders Don’t Trust One Another.
16
April 2024: While the US House of Representatives
plans a raft of Iran sanctions votes after the attack on Israel, UN
Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned “the serious escalation
represented by the large-scale attack launched against Israel by the Islamic
Republic of Iran. How might a war between Israel and Iran be fought? The Cascading World.
US president issues
statement after Israeli military says Iran launched more than 200 drones and
missiles.
16
April 2024: The only solution for the Palestinians
to this conundrum is the destruction of Israel. But they cannot destroy
Israel. The destruction of Israel represents a far-fetched scenario but were
it to happen, it would necessitate that other nations hostile to Israel, both
bordering the Jewish state and elsewhere in the region, play a major role.
And if they did play this role, there is nothing in their history, ideology,
or position that indicates they would find the creation of a Palestinian
state in their interests. Each would have very different ideas of what to do
in the event of Israel’s destruction. The
Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Seven.
16
April 2024: The BJP marches on. It seems certain
to win in the coming election, so the next five years are all but guaranteed
to feature further authoritarianism and increasing marginalization of
Muslims. But if the party scores big, it may be able to irrevocably restructure
the Indian polity. The margins, therefore, matter. The
Fate Of Over 1.4 Billion People Hangs In The Balance.
15 April
2024: As we have seen, in the strange new
diplomatic game of appeasing American sensitivities on the Ottoman
settlement, Lloyd George and the British believed that, in Faisal and his
Arab irregulars, they had an ace in the hole, a façade to rule behind. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Six.
15
April 2024: Many describe NATO as the United
States’ indispensable alliance - and it remains a top priority. However given
the geopolitical shift to the Indo-Pacific, the U.S.-Japanese alliance is far
more important. The Pacific Space.
14
April 2024: Since October 7, the motto “Together We
Will Win” has rallied the Israeli public in the fight against the
perpetrators of that day’s attacks. But Israelis must remember that any
military victory will turn into defeat if it undermines the core values of a
Jewish and democratic Israel. The Only
Way Is To Defeat Hamas.
14
April 2024: Mark Sykes suggested that: It
would be worth considering whether a new department under a secretary or
under-secretary of state should not be started, this would be the Department
of the Near East and would be responsible for policy and administration of
Egypt, Arabia, and Mesopotamia. The Making
Of The Modern Middle East Part Five.
14
April 2024: The current mass exodus of Chinese people
from their homeland is evidence they want to live in nations that respect
human rights, honor the rule of law, and offer a wide choice of
opportunities. As Taiwan’s example makes plain, China could be such a place,
too. Competition With China To Be
Won.
13
April 2024: Several U.S. presidents hoped to
downsize America’s role in the Middle East on the cheap - in Biden’s case, to
focus on China’s challenge and Russia’s growing threat. But Hamas and Iran
have drawn the United States back in. Iran's
Strategy.
12
April 2024: Amidst Israel’s ongoing conflict in the
Gaza Strip and concerns over an increased Iranian role in the war, reports
are emerging that Israel may acquire the new F-15EX soon. The New Capacity.
11
April 2024: The most celebrated and reliable
chronicler of pre-Zionist Palestine. was Mark Twain, who wrote about his
travels in the undivided Palestine that time called the Holy Land. Witness To Palestine.
10
April 2024: It all began in Beijing. Narendra Modi
was the chief minister of Gujarat when he visited in 2011 to pitch his state
as a destination for Chinese investment. As India’s ambassador to China at
the time, S. Jaishankar was tasked with helping to facilitate meetings with
Chinese Communist Party leaders and officials, companies, and even Indian
students there. Modi's New Messenger.
9
April 2024: After half a year of nearly steadfast support,
it’s time for the Biden administration to firmly push Israel in the direction
it should go anyway. Honesty is what friends owe friends. Stuck In Gaza.
8
April 2024: The Gaza war seems to be reinforcing
already strong Israeli incentives for more, not less, military escalation
with Iran. The Gaza war seems to be reinforcing already strong Israeli
incentives for more, not less, military escalation with Iran. Where This War Will Go Next?
7
April 2024: Iran’s actions and introducing more predictability
in the Middle East would be a great improvement. Iran has learned to play the
current game well, and it understands its advantages. A Detente Option For Iran.
7
April 2024: China will likely continue to contribute
about a third of the world’s economic growth while increasing its economic
footprint, particularly in Asia. If U.S. policymakers underappreciate this,
they are likely to overestimate their ability to sustain the deepening of
economic and security ties with Asian partners. Misconceptions
About China.
7
April 2024: Putin's Russia will continue to be a revisionist
state bent on expanding its territory - by force if necessary. Any durable
peace must thus be based on deterrence, not satisfaction with the status
quo. Obstacles To Diplomacy In Ukraine.
6
April 2024: Although many Western policymakers
think they know better than to treat the non-Western world as an unvariegated
whole, they should use the phrase “global South” with particular care. The Rest Of The World.
5
April 2024: Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks provided Ankara
a unique opportunity for Erdogan to stand with Israel and one which he is
likely to squander. Rather than condemn Hamas and distance himself from a
militant group, Erdogan is poised to sacrifice Turkey’s strategic interests
again in favor of his Islamist beliefs. Erdogan
And Hamas.
4
April 2024: The breakdown of the Ottoman Empire in
the Middle East would reach a fever pitch during the Versailles
deliberations. The Making Of The Modern
Middle East Part Four.
3
April 2024: Although the Chinese-Russian strategic
relationship has arisen over decades, that relationship - to say nothing of
Moscow’s ties to Pyongyang and Tehran - has ripened considerably during the
war in Ukraine. In the years ahead, the challenge of adversary alignment
may well be inevitable. Why It Will
Not Surprise.
2
April 2024: Although global missile proliferation
today relies primarily on Iran and North Korea, it is likely to expand as
commercial space activities democratize access to fundamental missile
technology. Both state and nonstate groups are increasingly recognizing the
coercive power of these missile arsenals. What Proliferation Means For Global Security.
1
April 2024: One of the larger ironies in the current
war may be that, as patrons of wayward clients, both the United States and
Iran have more in common than they may recognize. Both would benefit from a
cease-fire that ends the risk of a regional war. The Patron’s Dilemma.
31
March 2024: Chinese officials often say that
Beijing does not deliberately seek a trade surplus. Deliberate or not,
China’s trade imbalances are not sustainable for the rest of the world, and
China should not be surprised if foreign governments start to respond more
aggressively. China’s Economic
Collision Course.
30
March 2024: The French government was finally
prepared explicitly to recognize Britain’s special interests in the Arabian
Peninsula, and confirmed its intention ‘not to seek any political influence
in these regions’. The British noted with satisfaction that the French were
‘ready to accept our political supremacy in the Arabian Peninsula, except the
Hedjaz’, which was ‘a point gained’. Especially when one took into account
that regarding the Hijaz, ‘owing to the close connection of the holy places
with Egypt, Aden, and Mesopotamia [there should] be no difficulty for us in
acquiring and eventually asserting a position of predominance there also'. The Middle East Gamble.
29
March 2024: NATO’s eastern enlargement, which was
one of the reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine, has only continued. His
actions have made the country’s membership in NATO more
likely, not less. And when Finland joined NATO last April, as a direct result
of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO’s land border with Russia more than
doubled. What NATO Membership Will Require.
28
March 2024: Today Bankman-Fried’s 25-year sentence
is about half of the 40 to 50 years prosecutors had sought. Judge Kaplan said
he weighed several factors, including the brazenness of the crimes and
Bankman-Fried’s potential to commit crimes in the future. There was a
risk “that this man will be in a position to do something very bad in the
future,” Kaplan said. “And it’s not a trivial risk,” Kaplan recommended
that the Bureau of Prisons place Bankman-Fried in a medium-security or lower
facility, ideally in the San Francisco area so that his family may visit. Cryptocurrency And The Bankman-Fried Case.
27
March 2024: Top Ukrainian officials openly
suggested that a cascade of Russian defeats might force Russian President
Vladimir Putin from power. These expectations, however, were completely
unrealistic. Russia incurred tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of casualties,
but the country was still much stronger than Ukraine. Its GDP was nine times
the size of its neighbor’s, and its population was over three times as
large. For Israel, it is probably too late to reset expectations,
especially given that it was never the underdog (unlike Ukraine). Israelis
are likely to look back on the war as a costly campaign and a missed
opportunity - and perhaps as a major defeat. Winning The Battle But Losing The War.
26
March 2024: If we were to ask the question, ‘On whose
side did the Arabs fight in the First World War?’ Most people who know
something about the war’s history would probably say ‘Britain’s.' Such a
reply would reflect the orthodox account, emanating from the glorification of
‘Lawrence of Arabia and the alleged ‘Arab Revolt’ of Sharif Hussein and his
sons. However, in the past decade this orthodox narrative has been
questioned by several historians. The
Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Two.
25
March 2024: Very much a topic in the context of
the current Israel-Hamas War, the doctrine of Palestine in history would
never have amounted to anything more than an intellectual musing had it not
been for the huge ambitions of Hussein Ibn Ali 1853-1931 appointed emir or
grand sharif of Mecca by Sultan Abdul Hamid II in 1908 we proceed. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part One.
24
March 2024: Food can bring about mass civilian deaths
and unthinkable horrors, provoking rightful moral outrage at the prospect of
its use. But unlike nuclear weapons, food weaponization is routinely used in
warfare. And in our globalized world, these tools have become more dangerous
than ever. The Food Weapon.
23 March 2024: Certainly the
European Union deserves credit as a first mover for a comprehensive approach
to Internet harms. But for others who are far behind, a genuine package of
reforms must be introduced. At a minimum, it should include comprehensive
privacy regulation that addresses the industry’s business model by banning
its behavioral tracking of users, marketing of their preferences, and sales
to data brokers. ByDance and TikTok.
22 March 2024: Certainly, the
European Union deserves credit as a first-mover for a comprehensive approach to
Internet harms. But for others who are far behind, a genuine package of
reforms must be introduced. At a minimum, it should include comprehensive
privacy regulation that addresses the industry’s business model by banning
its behavioral tracking of users, marketing of their preferences, and sales
to data brokers. The Test.
21 March 2024: Military leaders must
take seriously the challenges posed by civilian efforts to politicize the US
armed forces. Paradoxically, because of their commitment to the nonpartisan
ethic, not to mention the responsibilities of their jobs, many are
unaccustomed to thinking about their role in protecting the institution from
being pulled into partisan politics. The
Politization Of The U.S. Military.
20
March 2024: The only legitimate Palestinian
political entity that is untainted by failure is the state of Palestine. It
is waiting in the wings to assume its place among the nations of the world.
The moment is opportune for Palestinian political leaders, including from
Fatah and The Palestinian Option.
|
Modi and the
BJP seem poised to win their third general election in a row. This
victory would further magnify the prime minister’s aura, enhancing his
image as India’s redeemer. His supporters will boast that their man is
assuredly taking his country toward becoming the Vishwa Guru. The Teacher To The World.
In the 1970s détente was unlike 1930s
appeasement, both in the way it functioned and in the results it
produced. Unlike the British and French attempt to buy off Adolf Hitler
with territorial concessions, Kissinger and his presidents strove to
contain their adversary’s expansion. Cold
War China Xi Jinping And The United States.
People have
important choices to make about how they should live their lives and what
kind of society they wish to live in. The Rising Threat Of Illiberal Democracy.
|
|
Rare earth elements lithium, graphite, and cobalt
- support a wide variety of modern technologies.
Putting Xi's
Visit to Vietnam in Context.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Vietnam
will likely see the two countries agree to integrate their supply chains
further and symbolically upgrade their relationship, which will benefit
Vietnam amid the growing U.S.-China competition over rare earth minerals.
During his trip, the Chinese president is meeting with Nguyen Phu Trong,
the General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, to discuss
bringing China-Vietnam relations to a higher position.' Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi visited Hanoi earlier this month, which likely involved
finalizing a joint statement that will be unveiled during Xi's visit. China
and Vietnam agreed to upgrade rail infrastructure and more thoroughly
integrate supply chains, focusing on rare earth.
Rare but true in
some Czech villages, St Nicholas leads a parade with the devil and Grim
Reaper in tow:
Nomads of
Mongolia have adapted, once again, adding new technologies to their arsenal
of traditional knowledge to negotiate an increasingly unreliable climate.
Motorbikes mean they can zip through dust storms to look for lost sheep.
Solar energy means they can keep their phones charged and access the
internet to exchange information with neighbors about newer pastures and
keep their freezers going to preserve meat for lean days.
UN General
Assembly adopts a resolution on “Protection of civilians and upholding
legal and humanitarian obligations” during the 45th plenary meeting of the
resumed 10th Emergency Special Session.
Normalizing Hamas within the context of revivified
Palestinian politics will be a bitter pill to swallow, but the alternatives
- such as continuing to insist on Hamas’s destruction, attempting to drag
an illegitimate and ineffective PA to Gaza, or forcing elections in a
volatile and crisis-ridden environment - will likely backfire as they have
in the past.
Hamas leader
Sinwar fled northern Gaza in a humanitarian convoy, report says. Rally held
for hostages, as those freed speak of hell, reminiscent of the Holocaust.
The UN Security Council in New York was set to vote later in the day on
another call for a ceasefire in the besieged territory after previous bids
were vetoed by the United States. Israel has approved aid deliveries into
Gaza via its Kerem Shalom crossing, aside from the Rafah crossing with
Egypt, and a first truck convoy passed through Kerem on Sunday according to
the Egyptian Red Crescent. The Way Going Forward In Gaza.
Could Hamas
Become a Global Threat? The Iranian-Palestinian
Marriage Of Convenience.
In ushering in a
new constitutional order, Israel has the rare opportunity to complete one
of the great unrealized goals of its founders. If Israelis can achieve this
lofty goal in the wake of the worst national catastrophe since then,
they will have successfully turned the terrible tragedy of October 7
into a historic opportunity to not only defend the Jewish state but also to
secure its democratic future for generations to come. How Hamas Has United Israelis Behind The
War.
Israel seeks to
destroy Hamas, capturing or killing its leaders, shattering its military
capacity, and ending its power in Gaza. It seeks the release of the
hostages who were kidnapped on October 7 and remain alive. Its leaders
must make hard choices about which goals to prioritize and which to set
aside. Researching Israel’s Goals And
Strategy.
Biden must not threaten to withhold necessary
military assistance from Israel. But he can make it clearer to the Israelis
that the continued strength of their relationship with Washington rests on
Israel's understanding that it cannot reoccupy Gaza and that their ultimate
security guarantee will be a peace agreement with a similarly peace-minded
Palestinian state. Why Israel Will
Remain In Gaza.
The inter-office rivalry and jumble of complex
issues competing for attention that British officials juggled while
inadvertently shaping the future of the world. It is unique in how and why
the British generals and diplomats acted as they did. By took as his
starting point the voluminous, contradictory, and revealing records of the
policy-makers in the British government and that many concerned with
foreign policy-making were quite oblivious to the history and complexities
of the Islamic World and how the British Empire tried to change the world
with how shallow and confused the understanding of those that shaped the
future of the Middle East was. Part One:
Until after the U.S. election season passes, great
political and practical pressures weigh on Biden, should he should choose
to be bold. But Far Greater Risks May Emerge If
He Doesn’t.
The Sea of Marmara (/ˈmɑːrmərə/; Turkish:
Marmara Denizi; Greek: Θάλασσα του Μαρμαρά, Ancient
Greek: Προποντίς, Προποντίδα), also known as the Sea of Marmora
or the Marmara Sea, and in the context of classical antiquity as
the Propontis. Turkey In Context.
Vladimir Putin,
who compared himself to Peter
the Great, is determined to shape the future to
look like his past version. This treatise, and similar public
statements, make clear that Putin wants a world where Russia presides over a new
Slavic union composed of Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, and perhaps the northern
part of Kazakhstan (which is heavily Slavic) – and where all the other
post-Soviet states recognize Russia’s suzerainty. Bolshevik Rule.
Although the UAE
might seem ahead of its neighbors now, many states are hot on its tail and
undermining its security. As a result, rather than trying to
hinge itself beyond the region, the country’s long-term security and
economic interests will be better served by a stronger regional security
framework - a process that requires deeper regional integration and more
effective conflict resolution mechanisms. The UAE
And Its Talest Building In The World.
“My gut tells me
we will fight in 2025,” U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan wrote in a
January memo to officers in the Air Mobility Command. The memo, which
promptly leaked to reporters, warned that the United States and China
were barreling toward a conflict over Taiwan. US New World War.
Gaza must once again return to its roots as the
prosperous crossroads it was for centuries. To start with, the policy of
siege and blockade must end, allowing the territory to finally reconnect
with the rest of the region. Gaza
Historical Role.
Chinese Spy Operations.
Today is the
final day of the Feidong, China traditional firework display that
forms part of the county’s three-day New Year celebrations:
A "far-right
international” would help Putin strengthen his hand. He hopes that it might
prompt Western states to weaken sanctions, for example, or to cut back on
support for Kyiv. The result might be a more durable Kremlin regime. And
for Putin, that in itself would be a win. Putin
And The Right.
Election security
should not be a matter of politics or partisanship but rather preserving
the integrity of the country’s most sacred democratic process. Americans
must work together so that the malicious use of generative AI is just
another line in a long list of challenges that the American electoral
process can and has overcome. Generative
Artificial Intelligence.
The story of why
the former head of a former English Order of the Russian Tradition
currently runs a bed-and-breakfast in Italy. Alexandre Tissot And The British Association.
Prematurely
abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other
adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea that the
United States does not have the appetite to support the victims of
aggression once a conflict becomes protracted, or at the very least that it
cannot defend more than one country in one region at a time. All this could
encourage further adventurism. By continuing to help Ukraine resist Russian
aggression, the United States can send a powerful signal to a broader range
of rivals: unprovoked aggression will not go unpunished. All This Could Encourage Further Adventurism.
Prematurely
abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other
adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea that the
United States does not have the appetite to support the victims of
aggression once a conflict becomes protracted, or at the very least that it
cannot defend more than one country in one region at a time. All this could
encourage further adventurism. The
Ukraine-Taiwan Tradeoff.
Within a few
hours of the Pearl Harbor attack, a Zero pilot whose engine had been damaged
by antiaircraft fire ditched his plane on Niihau, a sleepy island located
150 miles northwest of Honolulu and inhabited by 250 Hawaiians and part
Hawaiians, one issei, and a nisei couple with a two-year-old daughter. From
7 December until 13 December the pilot, helped by the nisei husband,
imposed his will on the island, whose inhabitants had no
communications with the outside world except for a weekly boat from
neighboring Kauai. From Pearl
Harbour On.
|
During Taiwan’s
election, there are worrying signals that his thinking is moving in the
latter direction. Xi has stated that the Taiwan issue cannot be passed on
to future generations and that achieving unification is the essence of the
country’s rejuvenation. Taiwan Today.
An armed gang stormed the studio of a major
television station in Ecuador on Tuesday, waving pistols, machine guns, and
sticks of dynamite. The gunmen burst into the headquarters of the TC
Televisión network in Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil. Ecuador's police
were deployed to the station, eventually recapturing the building.
The storming of the station comes amid a spate of
organized nationwide attacks by criminal groups across Ecuador. On Monday,
the country’s new president, Daniel Noboa, declared a state of emergency
after the escape of the country’s most dangerous gang leader.
The president of
Ecuador declares a state of 'internal armed conflict' as gang leader
escapes from Jail and gunman invades TV studio:
The current problems with Hamas go straight back
to the fall of the Ottoman Empire, which ended at a stroke thirteen hundred
years of imperialism in the Middle East, and was not a necessary, let alone
an inevitable, consequence of World War I. It was a self-inflicted disaster
by a shortsighted leadership blinded by imperialist ambitions. Had the
Ottomans heeded the Entente's repeated pleas for neutrality, their empire
would most likely have weathered the storm. However, they did not, and this
blunder led to the destruction of the Ottoman Empire by the British army
and the creation of the new Middle Eastern state system on its ruins. Even
this momentous development was not inevitable, and its main impetus came
not from the great powers but from a local imperial aspirant: Hussein ibn
Ali of the Hashemite family. The
Problems With The Middle East.
The US and UK militaries launched strikes
against Houthi
targets in
Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on Thursday, marking a significant
response after the Biden administration and its allies warned that the
Iran-backed militant group would bear
the consequences of
its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. US President Joe
Biden said he ordered
the strikes “in
direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international
maritime vessels in the Red Sea.”
Taiwan expects
China to pressure the incoming govt after the election. Unless Cina
gives Taiwan up on trying to take control of the island, the CCP will
always work to distort Taiwanese politics. But the island has devoted
considerable time and resources to bolstering its resilience, developing a
response as adaptive as Beijing’s efforts. The Taiwan Conundrum.
Satellite images
show a damaged radar site at Sana'a Airport in Yemen following Friday's
strikes. So a second round of strikes at Houthi targets would seem to
reflect the determination of the Americans to match their declared intent -
to degrade the Houthis military and, in so doing, remove a complication
that carries the threat of expanding aggression in the region. The Measure Of Their Effectiveness Will Be In How
The Houthis Respond.
China urges the
US, UK, and Japan not to interfere in ‘China’s internal affairs’ after they
congratulate Lai Ching-te on his election win. This is where China has no
right to call Taiwan part of China, historical records prove otherwise. Yet
Following the result of the free elections China again sent navy vessels to
intimidate Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait is increasingly a critical military
flashpoint within this broad expanse. Tensions are mounting as the People’s
Republic of China (PRC) ramps up its political, economic, and military
pressure on Taiwan and its other neighbors. There
are warning signs that Beijing may accelerate its plan to seize Taiwan by
force if necessary. President Biden’s strong start regarding the
Taiwan issue comes against the backdrop of China dramatically increasing
military activity in the waters and air space near the island.
Either the United
States and its international partners must make a historic decision to end
the conflict now and move both sides swiftly toward a viable two-state
solution, or the world will have to contend with an even darker future.
Soon, it will no longer be a question of occupation but the more difficult
issue of outright apartheid. The Choice
Cannot Be Clearer.
Haiti's capital Port-au-Prince was on lockdown on Thursday,
as flaming barricades across several neighborhoods forced residents to
shelter in place or return home in the latest flare-ups in chronic gang
violence plaguing the Caribbean country. Who
Will Lead Haiti?
The idea that
military dominance must be pursued in Asia is deeply ingrained in U.S.
foreign and defense policy. This presumption risks becoming even more
entrenched as leaders in both political parties fear slipping behind
Beijing. But a balancing approach constitutes neither appeasement nor
defeatism. It is perhaps the only fiscally sustainable way to protect U.S.
interests in the region for decades to come. America Can’t Surpass
China’s Power in Asia. But It Can Still
Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
The Israel-Hamas
war has changed the Middle East: immense public anger has been stirred up,
and animus toward the West could spark fresh extremism and political
instability. For the region’s rulers, even those whom Washington counts as
allies, the war has changed fundamental assumptions about their security
and their relations with the West. The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
With the
frontline at a territorial stalemate, Ukraine’s chances of regaining full
control of the occupied territories by force of arms in 2024 appear slim.
Any armistice or freezing of the conflict would draw a line through
southern and eastern Ukraine, leaving millions of Ukrainians under Russian
rule. As the war grinds on, Russia has time to further consolidate its
political, economic, and administrative occupation, making the eventual
reintegration of these territories back into Ukraine increasingly difficult. The Quiet Transformation.
If 2023 is any
indication, it would be far better for pragmatic U.S. policymakers to use
American power to shift the course of events in the Holy Land than to hand
the situation over to extremists and to the bloody dynamics they encourage.
Why Peace Remains Possible.
Containment
offers a policy blend capable of working from the fine-grained details of
an AI model out to huge public programs that could mitigate vast job
destruction. The New Threat.
The current
moment is, arguably, the most sensitive in Myanmar’s modern history. The
junta is the weakest it has ever been and the resistance has made
unprecedented territorial, political, and military gains. Whereby the
various resistance groups will need to negotiate settlements among
themselves. The Future Of Myanmar.
Great
catastrophes often seem unthinkable until they happen. As the strategic
environment deteriorates, it’s time to recognize how eminently thinkable
global conflict has become. Regional
Conflicts Resemble World War II.
Russians believe that
the timeless essence of the United States is the will to power: this
clarifies the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine, and it also explains
Russia’s refusal to wind down its devastating war in Ukraine. Captivating
as they are, myths mislead by obscuring the awesome complexity and
open-endedness of reality. Gaza Makes
A Nuclear Iran More Likely.
A business-as-usual election campaign would not do
justice to the challenges that may lie ahead. Instead, political parties
need to debate fundamental strategic choices and make the defense of
democracy and EU institutional reform a key part of their appeals. Preparing For American Abandonment.
The Middle East
is facing a moment of reckoning. If it becomes paralyzed by the horrific
bloodshed in Gaza, it could further descend into crisis and conflict. Or it
can start building a different future. The Path To A Regional Order.
The military campaign that Israel launched in
response to Hamas’s brutal October 7 attacks has killed more than 27,000
people in the Gaza Strip and injured more than 60,000 others, according to
the Gaza Health Ministry. About 75 percent of Gaza’s population of 2.3
million has been displaced. Some 400,000 people are enduring famine due to
the blockade Israel has imposed on Gaza and severe restrictions on
humanitarian aid that have deprived civilians of what they need to survive.
This number could grow if international funding for aid falters. America’s Hypocrisy on Gaza.
Washington and its allies face many potential geopolitical
catastrophes over the next decade, but nearly all pale in comparison to
what would ensue if China annexed or invaded Taiwan. Japan Defense And China Springboard.
The most contested ground of the Russian Civil War,
was a line of supply for the White shadow government that was fought over
by partisans and controlled by the Czechoslovak Legion of ex-prisoners of
war. From Moscow To China.
Handel Celebration
Concert | The English Concert, Händelfestspielorchester Halle, Howard Arman
Adagios from
Romantic Piano Concertos
Klassik
am Odeonsplatz mit Valery Gergiev, Daniil Trifonov und den Münchner
Philharmonikern; Daniil Trifonov played Beethoven's piano concerto no. 5.
As many as 8.000 people joined.
Advocates of a
renewed push for a two-state solution will claim that it is the most
realistic option. No matter how the war in Gaza ends, it is improbable that
a two-state solution - or an equitable one-state solution, for that matter
- will be on offer. Israel And Hamas.
Given the
precedents over centuries of Chinese philosophy for the kind of synthesis
Xi is attempting, it is curious that he relies so heavily on very ancient
sources. President Xi's Thought.
The
Russian-Ukraine war will end when one side believes it is no longer worth
the effort and looks to cut its losses. That decision will be the
consequence not only of military factors but also of economic, social, and
political ones. Why The War Might Defy
Expectations.
It is awkward
timing for a book extolling Israeli military prowess. On October
7. Israel’s armed forces were caught by surprise, suffering a
terrorist attack that resulted in the bloodiest day for Israel since its
independence in 1948 and the bloodiest for Jews anywhere since the
Holocaust. How Israel Fights.
|
The Israel Defense
Forces (IDF) have announced they are “expanding ground operations” in the
Gaza Strip, IDF spokesperson Rear Adm Daniel Hagari. In a televised news
briefing on Friday, he warned residents of Gaza City to move south, where
there will be “better conditions.” Meaning an invasion seems now imminent.
U.S.
Strikes Targets In Syria.
As a result, arguably, it was not just the
economically deprived who voted for Brexit. Garton Ash reports that an old
friend of his voted Leave; his father, he’s sure, would have done the same.
Today, the British are paying the price for a failure of politicians – and
intellectuals – to transform people’s mental map of where Britain truly
belongs. When Europe Fell Apart.
Understanding the problem is just the first step.
To solve it – to balance the need for speed with the need for safety –
policymakers will have to implement better approaches to accelerating
adoption and ensuring safety. Otherwise, Americans risk being caught in
spiraling AI dangers and declining U.S.
power and influence. AI is already at war; How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform
The Military.
Israel will require a long and painful
healing to regain its balance, its defense posture, and its composure. But
first and foremost, it will need to come to terms with the fact that this
war is different from any it has fought in many years and that it must
transform its approach to security. The End Of
Israel’s Gaza Illusions.
Since war broke out last month, Hezbollah – an
Iranian-backed Islamist group – has launched rockets, anti-tank missiles,
and drones into Israeli territory, killing and injuring IDF soldiers;
Israel has responded in kind, killing dozens of Hezbollah militants in
Lebanon. On Friday, Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s support for Hamas but
stopped short of committing his group to becoming more deeply involved in
the war. Yet he indicated that could change if the conflict continues. Duelling Speeches.
According to the Israeli military, various
Palestinian groups, including Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip and
staged the surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, are believed to be
holding more than 240 hostages. The Protests
In Israel.
The Dalai Lama is an honorary citizen of Canada,
and thus the government has the responsibility to protect his religious
freedom. It is also important for Buddhist countries such as South Korea
and several members of ASEAN to protect the traditions and customs of
Buddhism. The Next Dalai Lama.
Hard power is a critical element of the United
States’ efforts to uphold peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. It is a
variable in the equation, however, and not the solution. Once More The Question Of Taiwan.
There seems to be an appetite for the United
Nations to maintain its role of promoting global security, even if it takes
on a more limited operational involvement in conflict than it has in the
past. Rather than deploying its own forces, the UN could support other
crisis managers, namely regional organizations and even individual
countries. How The World Lost Faith In The UN.
Israel’s actions
will unavoidably pose a great risk to its forces, to innocent Palestinians
in Gaza, and to the hostages. Destroying Hamas’s tunnel network is the
most difficult aspect of the Israeli military’s mission today, but it is
also among its most important. It is at least as important as the
elimination of Hamas’s chain of command. The
No Blueprint Assault.
The region is suffering from a precipitously
brutal coarsening of its politics. When it comes to the Palestinians,
the Qataris are true to their principles in support of Palestinian justice
and rights, yet, can be constructive, but the effort to win the release of
Israeli hostages in Gaza seems to be the exception that proves the rule. Why Did Antony Blinken Attend A Meeting In Doha?
Despite its military superiority, Israel never
succeeded in eradicating the PLO. Instead, the IDF’s primary
accomplishments were killing tens of thousands of civilians; fragmenting
Palestinian groups into smaller cells that spent years conducting
hit-and-run operations; inspiring the rise of a new Lebanese militant
party, Hezbollah; and losing over 1,000 of its own citizens in an
occupation that stretched until 2000. It Is A
Pattern That Is Already Playing Out Again.
Experience suggests that there is no perfect
formulaic response to terrorism, only less painful and more productive
responses. Many Israelis and Palestinians are equally convinced that their
victimhood justifies extreme and inhumane measures, and the rest of the
world feels compelled to choose sides. The voices of those seeking peaceful
outcomes by political means seem to be drowned out by those calling for
revenge, punishment, and the use of indiscriminate force. But if there is a
lesson to be drawn, it is that governments need to understand the
limitations of repression and force. Choosing it alone can only lead to
further tragedy. The Gaza Case.
|
The United States and select NATO members (friends
of Ukraine coalition of the willing) better commit not just to long-term
economic and military help but also to guaranteeing Ukraine’s independence.
This undertaking would be modeled on Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which
provides for immediate consultations whenever “the territorial integrity,
political independence, or security” of a member is threatened. Negotiations Over Territory.
Israel has a few ways to eliminate Hamas’s
asymmetric advantages. The country cannot reverse technological change or
completely shut down pro-Hamas messaging on social media. But Israel does
have the power to react to Hamas’s terror attack strategically, and with
restraint. Doing so can sap Hamas of much of its power. What Does It Mean To Defeat A Terrorist Group?
As the sun went down on Friday, October 6, Israelis
began preparing for Shabbat. For some, their weekend plans were not
particularly restful; this would be the fortieth consecutive Saturday on
which thousands would take to the streets of Tel Aviv to Protest The Netanyahu Government.
Containing Russia should be conceptualized - and celebrated
- as a steady continuum of action that started before February 2022 and
came into its own with the Ukrainian defense of Kyiv and battlefield
advances in the fall of 2022. Containment, by definition, can deliver only
a partial victory, and for this reason, ups and downs in public sentiment
in countries allied with Ukraine are to be expected. Like In The First
World War?
One of Netanyahu’s worst mistakes was to view the
Palestinian problem purely in security terms as if the politics behind the
conflict could be ignored. That, of course, led to the blind spot that
helped make the Hamas attacks so deadly. But as an IDF man, Gantz seems
likely to view the Palestinian problem in much the same way - as a security
threat to be contained rather than an acknowledgment of the Palestinian
right to self-determination. Why
Israel Won’t Change.
Fighting resumed
in Gaza early Friday local time after Hamas and Israel failed to announce an
agreement on extending the ceasefire before it expired.The big picture: The
renewed fighting comes after a seven-day
pause during which Hamas more than 100
hostages, including two Americans, and Israel released 240 Palestinians
from Israeli jails. Israel also allowed more aid trucks and fuel into Gaza
to help address the dire humanitarian crisis.
Russians are not ready to die for Putin. In 2018
and 2020, Putin’s ratings fell due to an unpopular decision to increase the
retirement age, and then because of the effects of the pandemic; it is
possible that other new hits to his popularity will occur in the coming
months. Indeed, in the mood of both the public and the elites, there is an
invisible yet discernible expectation of such events. For most, however,
the yearning is more basic. They desire to end “all this” - meaning getting
rid of war - as quickly as possible and begin to live better, more safely,
and more peacefully. But it is unlikely that this will happen without
regime change. Too Many European
Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.
Enter Napoleon:
The New Cold War? Like Soviet intelligence during
the last century, Chinese agencies are waging a persistent, integrated, and
asymmetric onslaught on Western countries. But
Where Is This Going?
U.N. Chief
Demands Immediate Cease-Fire in Gaza.
The Story How Hardeep Singh Nijjar Was Killed In Canada,
September 2023.
Amazing, in the open right in the Center of
Munich:
The State of The World in Focus - The Israel-Palestine
conflict is one of the most enduring and complex geopolitical issues of
modern times (for a more detailed description see 11 December
above. Its ramifications go beyond the borders of Israel and the
Palestinian territories, influencing international policy, shaping global
alliances, and igniting passionate debates on human rights, sovereignty,
and justice. (See more on that above).
The United
Nations World Food Programme (WFP) says 36 percent of Gaza households are
now experiencing “severe hunger.” The
Future Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
|
In the following in-depth research, we show how
the National Socialist leadership's preoccupation with the “Jewish
Bolshevik” peril stressing that this and worse would in Germany “occur
with the same methodicalness as in Russia” unless the Germans realized
that “one has to fight now if one wants to live.” Resistance to “Jewish
Bolshevism,” cast in terms of a life and death struggle, formed a central
tenet of the National Socialist ideology. As is evidenced, Hitler compared
German conditions with those in the Soviet Union, claiming that the Jews
were inciting the masses to the "final blow against the state" in
Germany, "like in Soviet Russia." A Life For The Tsar.
Even India's imperative to move from regional to
global power necessitates force projection capabilities on the maritime
front. For India, maritime security has become a more significant focus
since Beijing launched its so-called String of Pearls strategy – a push to
build military and commercial assets along the Indian Ocean. However, this
strategy has been largely unsuccessful, one reason Beijing has been trying
to keep India focused on its shared border in the Himalayas instead of its
southern flank. India’s Massive Military
Restructuring.
The incisive UN Arab Human Development reports
from the early years of this century warned that an Arab state system
lagging in human development and with all its other socioeconomic ills, was
unsustainable - foreshadowing the uprisings a few years later. Today,
however, the challenges have only grown worse. The Middle East now faces
the scars of war, the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid population growth,
widespread youth unemployment, and uncontrolled urbanization, not to
mention climate change and the nascent transition to clean energy. No
government in the region is currently capable of seriously confronting
these issues. Why a Spate Of Diplomatic
Deals Won’t End Conflict.
The Chinese economy’s affliction with economic
long COVID presents an opportunity for U.S. policymakers to
change strategy. Instead of trying to contain China’s growth at great cost
to their economy, American leaders can let Xi do their work for them and
position their country as a better alternative and a welcoming destination
for Chinese economic assets. The
End Of China’s Economic Miracle.
Germany’s new China strategy is an essential step
toward a more realistic assessment of Germany’s economic vulnerabilities as
it becomes dangerously exposed to disruptions caused by or emanating from
China. With its focus on financial risks and only secondary consideration
of hard security issues, it is in danger of being quickly overtaken in a
rapidly evolving geopolitical environment. Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
Further, focused planning for how free markets
might be used against free countries will allow the United States and its allies
to prevent economic disruption better. As in traditional national security,
having a strategy is a far better deterrent than not being prepared. How To Reduce The Vulnerabilities That
Free Markets Create.
Western policymakers need to bake potential
miscalculations into their analysis and commit to being open-minded, even
if doing so challenges their worldview. Leaders will frequently ignore
the advice given to them or overestimate their abilities and miscalculate
risks. In other words, leaders will only sometimes be guided by
level-headed rationalism, regardless of what outside observers think. It is
a mistake for intelligence analysts and policymakers to assume
otherwise. Why It’s So Hard To
Forecast Authoritarian Aggression.
Given the war’s current trajectory and that
Ukraine cannot be particular about NATO membership, its leaders may have to
accept what they deem unacceptable. How
To Keep The Country Safe Without NATO Membership.
As commented on four days ago, the perplexing
aftermath of the Wagner mutiny shows Putin is more vulnerable than ever.
And where Putin saw the invasion of Ukraine as an act of destiny,
fulfilling a historical script. Instead, the war has left Russia grasping
for certainties in an exceedingly uncertain world. The Dangers Of Russian Disorder.
The world has seen the devastation and tragedy of
dysfunctional migration systems. A safe, fair, and orderly migration policy
in the United States is starting to emerge; if it succeeds, it could serve
as an example of what might be possible elsewhere. The Formula For Managing Migration.
Calls for revolution and transformation have been
commonplace in the generations after World War II defense debate. They have
mostly not fared well in light of observed experience in that time. After a
year and a half of war in Ukraine, there is no reason to think they will be
proven right this time. Back In The
Ukraine Trenches.
The situation on
the island of Maui is catastrophic, with hundreds of deaths for sure. It
also deserves a mention of what formerly was a country, particularly the
Island of Hawaii and its capital Honolulu on Oahu. The True Story Of Hawaii.
Two years after
the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan Still
Threatens The Region And Beyond.
A little over two years ago, a by us personal
known reader (having done his due diligence) sent us an alarming detailed
expose about the misuse of Cryptocurrency as funding terrorism, the war In
Ukraine, laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug gangs, including
an article about how someone by the name of Sam Bankman-Fried was
allegedly trying to run a crypto fueled Ponzi scheme. Setting our team to
work on it, we devised a five-part in-depth investigation. Whereby during
2023, Crypto ransom attacks continued to rise. Part One,
Part Two, Part Three, Part Four, Part Five.
One of the items mentioned about the widespread
crypto crime scene is the Sam Bankman-Fried was now sent to jail after his
bail was revoked. In court, Judge Kaplan said: "There is probable
cause to believe that the defendant has attempted to tamper with witnesses
at least twice."
Less than a week after several liquidity pools on
Curve Finance were exploited in a multi-million dollar scheme, the hacker
returned 4,820 alETH and 2,258 ETH to Alchemix, worth around $12.7 million.
An
Extensive Overview Of How Crypto-Currency Fraud Functions.
The development of robust AI systems is
inevitable, and people everywhere need to be prepared for what such
technologies will do to their communities and the broader world. Get Ready For Artificial Intelligence.
It is essential for countries to elucidate the
goals of collaboration and to articulate what the partnership needs to be
clarified. Security cooperation and contingency planning are not geared to
produce collective defense commitments, as with NATO. This message will
matter to the reception closer to the trilateral alignment received in
certain regions. How To Boost Cooperation.
The twenty-first century will throw up few
challenges as daunting or opportunities as promising as AI presents. In the
last century, policymakers began to build a global governance architecture
that, they hoped, would equal the tasks of the age. They must build a new
governance architecture to contain and harness this era's most formidable
and potentially defining force. There Is
No Time To Waste.
Russia is now home to a dizzying array of
nationalist movements, and it is hard to say what form Russian nationalism
will take after Putin. But if it takes a welcome form that focuses on
building solidarity and sharing power with Russia’s other nationalities, it
would offer a fleeting opportunity to address the core driver of Russia’s
recent aggression: the conflation of greatness with imperial ambitions. Russian Ethnonationalism Chauvinism.
Ötzi the Iceman, named after the valley in which
he was found, became world-famous because his body had been remarkably well
preserved by the intense cold, making him the oldest European mummified
human. Scientists began examining Ötzi, and soon a startling series of
discoveries emerged. A Sort Of 'Out Of
Africa.'
The two indictments this month, one federal and
one state, shore up the surprisingly fragile pillars of American
democracy. Americans and the world will be watching what comes next - the
pleas, the evidence, the defense, and the verdicts. Can America Protect The Peaceful Transfer Of Power?
To be clear, the Hawaii of today maintains a very
close relationship with Japan, including its yearly (briefly halted during
Covid) Festival of Pacific Arts & Culture, initially organized by
Japan. What we do here, however, is take a historical look at what was
envisioned as a self-sufficient bloc governed by the WWII Japanese
leadership. The Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere, Part One Of Two.
Initially, Tomáš Masaryk introduced
Coudenhove-Kalergi(RCK) to Edvard Beneš, the Czechoslovak foreign minister,
who also supported the thrust of RCK’s argument. More importantly, Beneš
gave him a Czechoslovak diplomatic passport to facilitate his future travel
around the continent to propagate his political program of closer
integration. Like many Wilsonians, RCK had initially been enthusiastic
about the proposal to create the League of Nations. But, in the way it was
set up, he could see the problems that prevented it from working as
intended. He claimed it was ‘neither truly global nor European’. Bolshevik
Russia defeated Germany, for instance, and states from afar, such as
Argentina and Mexico, were not members. Even the United States had failed
to join because its Senate blocked ratification of its accession, a
dramatic first step along the road of American isolationism. Coudenhove-Kalergi And The Pan-Europa Movement.
Vladimir Putin Christmas Downer.
Russia Redux.
Taiwan Attack.
More Vital Than Ever.
Russia Expert Olde Samorodni
Predicts.
USA China.
Himalaya.
The Question Of Taiwan.
India's concern about the ruling party’s continued
ability to balance its need to leverage religion to maintain its unique
position in the Indian political landscape and govern what will soon be the
world’s largest nation. India’s Ruling
Party Is Losing Control.
Competition could see the United States and China
engage in a technology race that pushes the frontiers of human knowledge to
new heights and creates innovative solutions to transnational problems. It
could also mean the two rivals cultivate internally peaceful blocs of
like-minded states, using nonviolent means, including aid provision, to try
to win hearts and minds and expand their influence at the margins. This
rivalry is alright for the world and better than the great-power wars that
have characterized most modern history. Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Yevgeny Prigozhin,
the head of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group who launched a mutiny
against the Kremlin two months ago, is believed to have died along with
nine other people in a plane
crash in Russia on Wednesday.
In the end, the Wagner mutiny lasted less than 24
hours. But the toxic cocktail of jealousy, rivalry, and ambition that gave
rise to it has been months, if not years, in the making. Putin’s enemies
don’t die of natural causes. The Wagner
Paramilitary Group.
The Special Operations Executive In France And
Elsewhere.
All political transformation in Russia has come
from the top. It is possible that a new group of reformers could emerge
from among the moderate members of the existing elite - liberals who are
still serving in government or the civil service. This new group would have
to decide how radically they want to change the country. What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.
Reducing harmful pollution is the only way to
avoid the worst climate impacts. However, negotiators must expand the stage
to include adaptation and ensure these two approaches go together. The
effects of a changing climate are already here, devastating communities
worldwide. Preparing For A Future
Of Extreme Weather.
BRI debt will continue to impede debt-relief
efforts, undermining the economic health of indebted developing countries
and the effectiveness of the IMF. Only a reformed IMF can
reverse the damage - to developing countries and themselves. The Real Toll Of Beijing’s Belt And Road.
In Recently, a quiet revolution with significant
consequences for transatlantic relations and international economic affairs
has occurred. Its success still hangs in the balance. The EU has already
proved capable of innovating and reinventing itself – Europe’s Geoeconomic Revolution.
Over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have
demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the
ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The
following way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality
and endurance is to ensure they know the West is prepared to support
them. The West Needs A Strategy
For After The Counteroffensive.
A quiet revolution with significant consequences
for transatlantic relations and international economic affairs has recently
occurred. Its success still hangs in the balance. How The EU Will Learn To Wield Its Power.
Today, we will dive into a subject when people
hoped to commute with death. Today, this claim is made by Theresa Caputo (a
known fraud) performing. There had, of course, been other mediums more
sophisticated than Caputo. A good case is the acclaimed H.P. Blavatsky,
who, given her time, used a degree system. The Secret
Doctrine And The Inner Group.
Tokyo Aims To
Counter Growing Chinese And North Korean Aggression.
Maintaining the status quo of the current global
order and resisting the democratization of its governance, as the systemic
leader the United States and its closest allies seem to be trying to do
(with China and Russia also resisting substantive changes to the UN
Security Council), will only heighten the impatience for serious reform. The World Outside The Great Powers.
Washington should now understand that Moscow is
geared up for a long war over the future of Ukraine and the international
order and will use global levers of power and influence to hurt Ukraine and
the West. The effects of Russia’s actions will not be trivial. Nor will the
Kremlin’s ruthlessness necessarily turn non-Western countries against
Russia. The sooner U.S. policymakers appreciate the global dimensions of
the war in Ukraine, the sooner they can engineer the failure of Russia’s
designs for Ukraine. Ukraine And Next.
Visiting the Sixtine Chapel in Rome:
In the 1950s, a psychologist named Bertram Forer facilitated
this experiment with students from his introductory to psychology course.
The text you rated earlier is very similar to the one Forer used back then,
inspired by newspaper astrology sections. He gave the exact text to each of
his students, telling them they were the results of a personality test they
had previously filled out and, therefore, very personalized. When all the
students received the text with their scores, Forer asked them to raise
their hands if they thought it had done an excellent job of describing
their personality. The students were baffled when they saw that almost all
hands were up. Forer then started to read one of the texts out loud. The
students laugh, realizing that all the texts are the same. Forer now had
proof of our faulty judgment and how easily we can be fooled into approving
pseudo-scientific descriptions or predictions about ourselves. But Astrology’s Politics Are More
Complicated Than Any Simple Link To Left Or Right.
Adversaries would recognize
that they cannot simply hold out and hope U.S. policymakers change their
minds. Echoing William Jennings Bryan’s three presidential defeats a
century ago, Trump’s third popular vote loss in 2024 would signal that
isolationist and populist sentiments in the United States are trending
toward remission and Bracing For Trump 2.0.
Today, the mood in the Islamic Republic, compared
with just a year ago, is triumphant. Khamenei’s republic has survived sanctions
and internal protests. With the help of its great-power allies, it has
steadied its economy and started to replenish its defenses. A nuclear bomb
is within reach. When the supreme leader decides to cross that threshold, there
is little reason to believe that Israel or the United States intends to
stop him with force. Iran’s New Patrons.
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Ukraine will need patience from its partners as it
tries to wear down its enemy. The West will need to recalibrate its
expectations to match reality, which is that this is a war of attrition. In
the near term, NATO states must continue transferring weapons and other
capabilities to Ukraine. They will also need to give Kyiv political and
military support for the long term. What
Ukraine Needs Right Now Is Time.
The South China Sea is undoubtedly one of the
world's most strategically and economically essential waterways with
militarized implications. The biggest concern about China’s
military expansion is how it ties into plans to annex Taiwan. The Trouble With The South China Sea.
This creative model emanates from an African-led
institution and could set a compelling precedent for other development
banks and policymakers worldwide. By emphasizing collaborations like these,
the next time a pandemic threatens the world, more countries will be ready
to respond and rebuild. That would benefit not just the global North or
South - it would be a win for everyone. New
Resentment How Rich Countries’ Selfish Pandemic Responses Stoked Distrust.
China spent $2.2
trillion on fossil fuel subsidies last year, several times more than the
following country, the United States ($760 billion). Notably, despite the
costs of its war in Ukraine, Russia spent $420 billion. China, the U.S.,
Russia, India, and the European Union accounted for 57 percent of all
fossil fuel subsidies.
By recognizing and ignoring Russian
propaganda and instead studying and identifying the actual vulnerabilities
of Russia’s military, the United States and its allies may be able to
develop new and better approaches that could allow them to help Ukraine
prevail and hasten the end of the war, just as the United States did with
the Soviets’ war in Afghanistan. What
The West Still Gets Wrong About Russia’s Military.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his
entire delegation have been forced to extend their stay in New Delhi for
the G20 summit by an extra day after his aircraft broke down, Canadian
officials confirmed. This happened after Prime Minister Narendra Modi
conveyed to Trudeau strong concerns about anti-India elements promoting
secessionism from Canadian soil and inciting violence against diplomats.
Technology is
political. At times, this subtle but omnipresent politicization is nearly
invisible. It shouldn’t be. Social media is the most recent reminder that
technology and political organization cannot be divorced. States and
technologies are intimately tied together. The
Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part One.
The containment of Russia and the preservation of
Ukrainian sovereignty are first-order Western interests. They should not
depend on images of horrific violence, constant media attention, or the
charisma of any Ukrainian politician. Western indifference and impatience
are Putin’s ultimate weapons in this war. Without them, he faces a
strategic dead end. Will The West
Abandon Ukraine?
Universities can build bridges through education,
research, and joint problem-solving. Because they employ the shared common
language of science and scholarship, they are sometimes the only
institutions still able to build those bridges when dialogue seems
impossible. Why Academic Links Are
Essential In A Fragmenting World.
The lack of escalation in Ukraine serves as a
reminder that in limited wars, patience is a virtue. A go-slow approach has
allowed NATO countries to provide a level of military support that was
unthinkable at the war’s start. The risks of escalation have not been
overblown. Instead, gradualism has allowed the West to learn - and, in some
ways, stretch - the limits of the war. The Missing Escalation In Ukraine.
If China’s economic woes worsen, its leaders will
probably become more sensitive to perceived external challenges, especially
on issues like Taiwan. Increased pressure on China could easily backfire
and motivate Beijing to become more aggressive to demonstrate its resolve
to other states despite its internal difficulties. More Likely To React To External Threats.
While Putin and Kim Jong Un's meeting will prompt
talk of a new authoritarian axis in northeast Asia, there’s little to
suggest that this relationship's recent surge has deeper foundations than
each country’s immediate strategic interests. Moscow may seek to revise the
global order in its favor, but enlisting North Korea as a partner in that
endeavor will be of limited use. What
Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
Brought about by the inexorable rise
of Artificial intelligence and the end of nations, a crisis will
take the form of a vast, existential-level bind, a set of brutal choices
and trade-offs representing the most crucial dilemma of the twenty-first
century. The Ramifications Of Artificial
Intelligence (AI) Part Two.
The arrival of the Spanish caused a massive
demographic collapse in the population centers of the New World,
particularly in greater Mexico and more so in Peru. A century later, the
arrival of the French and the English caused similar population collapses
on the East Coast of North America, which gradually spread west across the
continent. The Spanish administration of Hispaniola and other Caribbean
islands proved an unmitigated disaster for the Indians of the region, as
these were subjected to forced labor, forced relocation, wanton cruelty,
and even enslavement at the hands of ill-governed adventurers. The Spanish
conquest of the Aztecs and the Incas was a civilizational disaster that
permanently derailed the autonomous development of New World culture. In
the Spanish conquest of Mexico, one hundred thousand died from the direct
consequences of war, and the actual number might have been double or triple
this amount. The Truth About European
Colonialism In The New World.
Claims by the former Brazilian president’s
ex-secretary prompt calls for alleged right-wing conspirators to be brought
to justice. A former Bolsonaro aide said in plea bargain testimony that the
then-president talked with the commanders of Brazil's army, navy, and air
force about overthrowing the results of last year's election won by Lula. Bolsonaro Redux.
In 1870, President Ulysses S. Grant created the
Department of Justice to counter the terrorism carried out by the Ku Klux
Klan and other violent groups active in Southern states. But a new domestic
terrorism law seems a small step by comparison, and it would send a
resounding message: there is no place for political violence in a
democracy. White Supremacist
Terrorism.
Cantonese and non-Mandarin languages in China,
writ large, have lost a strong advocate, and others who seek to promote
language rights will become wary of doing so. And the effects of this
chilling of speech are wide-reaching. Beijing
Seeks To Extend The Hegemony Of Mandarin.
Both political parties deserve credit for this
paradigm shift in trade policy and for the USMCA, which is already doing so
much for the United States. The key now is to hold steady, mindful that
powerful interests at home and overseas will diligently seek to undermine
the agreement. Washington must be equally diligent in sticking to its new
course on trade. The
New American Way Of Trade How The USMCA Does What NAFTA Couldn’t.
The EU’s most challenging is also consequential.
Russia is threatening the peace and stability of Europe, and bringing
Moldova and Ukraine into the EU is critical to strengthening the
continent’s east. That, in turn, will protect Europe as a whole. The Promise And Peril Of EU Expansion.
Xi and Putin, cocooned by yes men, have already
made serious errors that have cost their countries dearly. In the long run,
they have damaged their countries. However, they remain a danger that the
United States must face for the foreseeable future. Even in the best of
worlds - one in which the U.S. government had a supportive public,
energized leaders, and a coherent strategy - these adversaries would pose a
formidable challenge. But the domestic scene today is far
fromorderly. Explaining
America’s Global Role.
Six young people from areas in Portugal ravaged by
wildfires and heatwaves took
32 European governments to court on Wednesday, arguing Their Failure To Act Fast Enough On Climate Change
Violates Their Human Rights.
What A Saudi-Israeli Deal Could Mean For The
Palestinians.
Enemy of the Reich: The Noor Inayat Khan Story.
Amid a growing outcry over women’s rights abuses
in Iran, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded jailed Iranian activist
Narges Mohammadi the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. What Narges Mohammadi’s Nobel Means For Iran.
While Washington has been reaching out, the
ball is now in Beijing’s court. Rejecting such dialogues and merely
continuing to beef up the PLA risks undermining the security that Beijing
seeks. Will Xi’s Military
Modernization Pay Off?
On Saturday, barrages of rockets were fired from
the blockaded Gaza Strip. The armed wing of Palestinian group Hamas said it
was behind the fire, claiming its militants had launched more than 5,000
rockets. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
Regardless, a
proper understanding of Russia's threat must begin with an accurate
appraisal of Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest.
But at the moment, his military cannot fully conquer any of the four
Ukrainian provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those
are the constraints that should bind the debate about the extent of the
threat. What Does Putin Want?
Media in Israel, citing rescue service officials,
said at least 300 Israelis were killed, including 26 soldiers, and more
than 1,800 wounded. An update on Israeli figures was expected on Sunday.
The Israeli military said a “substantial” number of civilians and soldiers
were being held hostage in Gaza. Footage circulating on social media
showed terrified captives, including mothers huddling with their children,
in the custody of Palestinian militant groups:
Below is a
destroyed police station that was overrun by Hamas militants in Sderot,
Israel:
The Palestinian group Hamas carried out a surprise
attack on Israel on an unprecedented scale.
At least four
civilians were killed while in the custody of Hamas, just feet from where
armed militants had been escorting them near the Gaza border, videos
obtained and geolocated show. The Why And How Of The Surprise Attack On Israel.
Iran played a role in helping plot the latest round
of Hamas attacks. Like its Hezbollah proxy, Iran sees Israel as
fundamentally illegitimate. It may seek to disrupt regional trends, such as
potential Saudi-Israel normalization (which Tehran sees, with considerable
justification, as designed to counter Iran), by promoting anti-Israel
violence. Hezbollah, Israel, And
Tehran.
A Palestinian man
taking a selfie next to a burning Israeli tank:
Today, we are tracing the origins of the current
situation in Gaza and Israel. Gaza Redux
Part One.
As tensions in the Middle East boil over, great-power
competition - classically understood - cannot be the world’s sole focal
point and means of analysis. This is not an era of strengthening
international order. It is not merely another era of great-power
competition. It is a moment of anarchically fragmenting power, an age of
great-power distraction. Crises In The
Middle East.
How The Conflict In The Middle East
Came About P.1.
The scenes unfolding in Israel and Gaza mark a new
chapter in the Middle East conflict. Today’s great powers, China,
Europe, Russia, and the United States, will undoubtedly have a role to play
in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Whether any of these powers will
be able to resolve or contain that conflict is far less specific. Hamas Rise To Power.
The main reason
this is happening now is the prospect of the U.S.-Saudi-Israeli deal. Hamas
understands this is a huge transformative event, and they are trying to
create a circumstance where it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to do it
right. Nevertheless, it is time to stop Israel from creating a
disaster. Time To Step Back From The
Brink.
The next stage is coming’: Israel issues warning
as residents flee Gaza assault US urges restraint amid bombing of civilian
evacuation convoy that left a reported 70 people dead, including women and
children.
Further to our
article from yesterday, the U.S. needs to have conversations with Israel
that only the United States, Israel’s closest partner, can have. As
significant a threat as the proposed judicial reform was (and is) to
Israel’s democracy, events of the past week have revealed that an
unresolved Palestinian issue poses a far greater one. Why Washington Should Restrain
Israeli Military Action In Gaza.
We take a more comprehensive approach to follow up
on our previous article. Only a genuinely unified political leadership
will fortify Israel’s democracy for the complex military operations ahead,
giving it the domestic mandate necessary to build a winning strategy and
end Hamas for good. A Strategy Beyond
Revenge.
Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu welcomes U.S. President Joe Biden as he visits Israel amid the
ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Tel Aviv, Israel.
Saudi Arabia becomes critical to the success of
the transfer of Gaza from Israeli control to the UN and the subsequent
consolidation of the Palestinian Authority’s hold over both the West Bank
and Gaza. Many hurdles stand in the way of such an arrangement coming to
pass. But one purpose of diplomacy is to probe intentions and spur the
consideration of a wider range of options in a contingency. This is what
the moment requires. The alternative is Gaza as an eternal dystopia, with
violence metastasizing around the broader region and states less able to
deal with social and environmental disarray. Return The Gaza Strip To Palestinians.
While President El-Sisi and U.S. President Biden
agreed on the Delivery of Humanitarian Aid to Gaza, today, British Prime
Minster Sunak arrives in Tel Aviv. The Israeli military says it ‘destroyed
hundreds of Hamas terrorist’ sites; British PM expected to ask that Britons
in Gaza be allowed to leave. Following Biden's recent speech, the U.S. also
must reinvent itself to get economic security right in a highly
interdependent world marked by great-power severe competition. The Israeli/Hamas Conundrum.
As we show in this article, the situation on the
ground of the Israel-Hamas war is fluid, and changes to the strategic
calculus in Israel, Iran, or both countries may lead their leaders to
believe that avoiding wider conflict poses a greater danger to their
survival than confronting one another in war. Escalation Could Set Israel And Iran On A Collision
Course.
In the center of Munich, Daniil Trifonov playing
Beethoven's Piano Concerto No 5.:
It seems Erdogan is once again ready to burn
bridges with Israel, even though in early 2022, he had begun an attempt to
normalize Turkey’s relationship with the country, hosting Israeli President
Isaac Herzog and once again exchanging ambassadors. In doing so, Erdogan
hoped to break Ankara from its relative state of isolation in the region
and win over pro-Israel figures in Washington so that the U.S. Congress
would look more favorably upon Ankara and remove its strong objections to
selling Turkey weapons: Erdogan And The Hamas-Israel War.
Yom Kippur War. Misinformation About The Israel-Hamas War Is
Flooding Social Media.
A ground assault
into Gaza is likely, with dire consequences. But as every soldier knows, it
may still be necessary and start very soon. Israel
Enter Gaza Imminent.
It is impossible to know for sure how an enemy
will react in war, primarily because leaders are incentivized to
misrepresent their actual redlines. Fighting nuclear-armed adversaries is a
dangerous game of brinkmanship. The
Return Of Nuclear Escalation.
In the immediate term, Israeli and especially U.S.
leaders need to secure the safety of Gazan civilians, 1.4
million of whom have already been displaced.
The United States should partner with the United Nations to create clear
humanitarian corridors and protected zones. What
To Do About Gaza, And What Gazans Think.
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When India overtook China in April to become the world’s
most populous nation, observers wondered: Will New Delhi surpass Beijing to
become the next global superpower? India’s birth rate is almost twice that
of China. And India has outpaced China in economic growth for the past two
years - its GDP grew 6.1 percent last quarter, compared with China’s 4.5
percent. At first glance, the statistics seem promising. Will India Surpass China To Become The Next
Superpower?
Revolutionary autocrats and their successors
present one of today’s most intractable challenges to international order.
Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine despite Russia’s close ties to Europe
demonstrates that economic linkage and common material interests are
insufficient to preserve the liberal world order. Don’t Count The Dictators Out.
Prigozhin’s mutiny has already inspired a spate of
historical analogies. Perhaps this is Russia in 1905, the small revolution
before the big one. Or maybe it is the Soviet Union in 1991, making Putin
into a version of Gorbachev, someone destined to lose an empire. The Beginning Of The End For Putin?
Any American pursuit of Chinese assurances that
U.S. military forces can safely operate near China’s shores could willfully
disregard the incentives that Chinese officials face to limit that access.
If American officials want to lower risk, they should instead offer
concrete proposals around issues requiring reciprocal restraint, such as
proposing that neither country should ever allow a system guided by
artificial intelligence to launch a nuclear warhead. It would serve both
sides’ interests to build toward an international norm in which decisions
on a nuclear launch reside only in the hands of humans. The Virtue Of Low Expectations.
Far better to try to solidify the status quo with a
non-confrontational approach. For that reason, the concept of full-spectrum
power is not just helpful for understanding how states behave in the
international realm; it can guard against the kind of analytical mistakes
that led to the current catastrophe in Ukraine. There’s No Such Thing As A Great Power.
Undoubtedly, China once strongly modeled itself
after the Soviet Union. Even Mao’s personalized rule and many attempts by
Russia to define and police political orthodoxy have not changed that. But
for Beijing, last weekend’s mutiny against Vladimir Putin was a cautionary
tale. China’s Affinity With
Russia Is Over.
For years, the US industry has tried to do more
with less to consolidate its operations and then ramp up production in
times of crisis. But this strategy has not worked for the United States and
is currently not working for Ukraine. Ukraine
And The American War Machine.
Whenever it comes, the war's end may offer
Zelensky and the rest of the country just such a moment. The president must
find a way to translate the population’s will to fight into an equally
strong conviction that the old approach to running the country is no longer
possible. And he must then follow through on his promises. End In Sight For The Ukraine War.
Today, there is a genuine concern about suspected explosives
on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which the Russians will deny. The same
was recently when Russia used explosives to destroy a dam while claiming it
were the Ukrainians themselves who did. With adequate international
support, such real-time documenting of human rights and other violations
could have a more direct and consequential dimension in wars that are still
unfolding. Crimes Without Punishment?
Unless Europe’s wealthiest and most populous
states are doing everything to help the United States make NATO territory
defensible in places that lie outside their usual comfort zones, they are
underperforming their duty in ways that could come back to haunt the entire
alliance long after the war in Ukraine is over. NATO’s East Deterring Russia.
The impasse over Security
Council reform has endured for generations. At some point, this brittle,
archaic system will buckle beneath the weight of the world. Such a collapse
may not seem imminent, but as with fault lines in the earth, geopolitical
dynamics can shift unexpectedly, irreversibly, and sometimes
catastrophically. Time To Expand The UN
Security Council.
Due to an initial question from a reader who we
also personally knew, we embarked on what for us at the time was a somewhat
unusual undertaking as it referred to the Order of Malta and its mimic
Orders.
Having contacted five academics with a Ph.D. who
specialized in this subject, including a prominent (historian) of one of
the mimic Orders, a few more people from both sides joined, leading to An Extensive Overview and A Relevant Comment.
Whereby noticing
that with the mimic Orders also came 'mimic Bishops,' we added a relevant
comment including a five-part history of the actual Order of Malta, see One here, Two here, Three here, Four here, and Five here and finally an intriguing Six here.
NATO leaders meeting in Vilnius better recognize
that European peace and stability rely on a secure and independent Ukraine.
Ultimately, that means bringing Ukraine into NATO. I believe leaders should
already extend an invitation for Ukraine to join in Vilnius—but
unfortunately, certain leaders of NATO member countries remain hesitant to
commit while the war is ongoing. This is a mistake. If you make membership
dependent on the end of hostilities, you give Russian President Vladimir
Putin the incentive to continue the war indefinitely. The Next Few Years Will Be Crucial.
Yemen should show the population that the
government is representative of the people and not beholden to outside
powers whose ravages will need to be addressed. Saudi Arabia and Iran will
ultimately need to be held responsible for contributing to war and a
humanitarian crisis that has led to the deaths of more than 300,000 Yemenis
- reparations that could take the form of support for the country's
post-war reconstruction. Time To Move On.
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NATO agreed to new, detailed regional defense
plans, which are fully connected with the forces, capabilities, and command
and control needed to execute them. Today's NATO Meeting In Vilnius.
While not intended as a black-or-white choice,
given the danger of a new Pacific war if China were to attack Taiwan, it
seems reasonable for countries to decide whether to side with or
appear to side with Washington or Beijing. And the US could accept this
reality rather than reassure the capitals that no such choice is in the
offing, including helping foreign capitals make the right decisions. U.S.-Chinese Rivalry.
Tension is a given between the two most powerful
countries, China and the US. But if they can both stick to a strategy
of institutional balancing, the rewards of competition should outweigh
the risks. How Institutional Balancing
Promotes Stability in Asia.
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a
moment of clarity for the United States and its allies. An urgent mission
was before them: to assist Ukraine as it countered Russian aggression and
to punish Moscow for its transgressions. While the Western response was
clear from the start, the objective - the endgame of this war - has been
nebulous. Why There Can Be No
Negotiations With Putin.
European allies
that wanted more for Ukraine should channel their disappointment
constructively. They can seize the moment and commit to extending the JEF
to Ukraine and Poland together with mutual defense obligations when
hostilities cease. Postwar Ukraine.
Economic, technological, and strategic competition
between China and the United States will remain the dominant feature of
geopolitics for years, if not decades, to come. Taiwan Is An Important Partner.
What Western governments need more than anything, however,
is imagination when it comes to intelligence collection about closed police
states. Imagination led the CIA to develop high-altitude U-2 planes capable
of spying behind the Iron Curtain when other methods were impossible.
Similar creativity is needed today in areas at the forefront of national
security. Blinded By The Fight.
Before Biden meets with Xi in November, China
might see the resumption of military-to-military talks as one way to pave
the way for a smooth summit. None of this engagement, however,
fundamentally changes China’s goal, which is to limit U.S. military activities
in the Chinese periphery. Living On
The Edge.
The upside of western hypocrisy how the global
South can push America to do better. While the current situation inevitably
results in the details of Chinese foreign policy grating against some of
the country’s professed values. As its clout in world politics expands,
Beijing will increasingly face complaints of hypocrisy. And when that day
comes, people worldwide may find that hypocritical behavior under the
banner of liberal values was not that bad after all. The Global South.
Negotiations in Yemen should be open to more than
just armed entities gaining legitimacy through battle. The talks should
also comprise political and social groups, including those that represent
women and young people. The country must do more than forge temporary deals
between groups in the long term. It can achieve sustainable peace if a
regional proxy war no longer obscures the local conflicts that started this
civil. Yemen's Humanitarian
Crisis.
Given the mounting pressures, Putin can try to
hang on, but he needs a strategy to show that Russia still has a path to
victory. What Putin does should, in turn, shape Ukrainian actions.
Kyiv can add to the anxieties in Moscow, demonstrating that no part of
Russia is secure, punishing Russian forces at the front and
opportunistically liberating territory even if it is not quite what
military planners intended. The War Of
Endurance.
Seventy years ago this week, the armistice that
froze the Korean War was signed. Whereby China’s active, albeit highly
distorted, revival of the war’s memory should indicate its belligerent
present-day intent. Anniversary speeches such as Xi’s and movies such
as The Battle at LakeChangjin are A Form Of Preparation For War.
The US government conducted a “multi-decade”
program that collected and attempted to reverse engineer crashed UFOs,
former intelligence official David Grusch told the hearing. David Grusch,
who led the analysis of unexplained anomalous phenomena (UAP) within a US
Department of Defense agency until 2023, claimed he had been denied access
to secret government UFO programs and said he has faced “very brutal”
retaliation due to his allegations. He claimed he knew “people who have
been harmed or injured” during government efforts to conceal UFO
information.The Truth About UFO's.
Taking a lesson from Ukraine, a U.S.-Chinese
war would take a lot of work. It would not be decided by a battle here
or a match there or by which country has the fanciest weapons. Instead, it
would be determined by the ability of each side to operate complex military
systems and staff its forces with well-trained and motivated personnel -
potentially for a very long time. Please
Think Twice Before You Launch A Conflict.
Yesterday's remarkable new charges against Donald
Trump and two associates in the classified documents case significantly
deepened the ex-president’s legal plight. And they dragged the 2024
election further into an unprecedented legal quagmire. The extensive
research that follows details how the positive thinking movement in the US
overlooked its Influences on Donald Trump.The
Overlooked Influences On Donald Trump.
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According to
China’s recent regulations on generative AI built on top of existing rules,
the European Union, for its part, is well on its way to passing new rules
about AI in the form of the AI Act, which would categorize levels of risk
and impose additional requirements for LLMs. The Illusion Of China’s AI Prowess.
The tech war
between the two superpowers could well be the defining struggle of the
twenty-first century. But whereas China continues to play a long game,
America’s tactical assault on China’s technology industry is all about
short-term advantage.The Technology Trap.
Nova Kakhovka dam
destroyed on Ukraine’s front lines, causing flooding and evacuations. What Really Happened To The
Kakhovka Dam?
The reauthorization of Section 702 provides the
best opportunity Congress has had since 9/11 and may have for a long time
for that undertaking. Lawmakers will almost certainly enact reforms to
Section 702. At a minimum, they will place restrictions on backdoor
searches. But unless Congress is willing to attack the other heads of the
Hydra, it will have done little to rein in warrantless surveillance. The Spying Program.
As we reported by us
yesterday(underneath) the destruction of a major dam and hydroelectric
power plant on the front lines of the war in Ukraine may dry up the rich
agricultural region of southern Ukraine, sweep pollutants into waterways
and upend ecosystems that had developed around the massive reservoir whose
waters are now rapidly flooding downstream. However, the full impact could
take months or even years to understand. How The West Can Secure Ukraine’s Future.
Today, the
multilateral trading system solves significant global challenges, from
climate change to conflict to pandemic preparedness. And a reformed WTO,
fit for the twenty-first century, is needed now more than ever, with rules
that underpin the stability, predictability, and openness of the global
trading system. Why The World Still Needs
Trade.
After over two
years of trying and failing to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the
Biden administration appears to have concluded that the agreement is beyond
resuscitation. As a result, “de-escalation” has been the watchword of U.S.
policy toward Iran. In practice, this has translated into lax enforcement
of U.S. oil sanctions on Iran and restrained responses to attacks on U.S.
forces in Syria and Iraq by Iranian proxies. The
Iran Gamble.
A new book by China analyst Isaac B. Kardon argues
in his groundbreaking book, China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of
Maritime Order, Beijing sees itself as fundamentally above the law and
beyond accountability to others. Why Is
China Rewriting The Law Of The Sea?
On February
24, 2022, the great Ukrainian novelist Andrey Kurkov and his wife were
awakened in Kyiv by the sound of Russian missiles. At first, he could not
believe what was happening. “You have to get used psychologically to the
idea that war has begun,” he wrote. Many observers of the invasion felt and
continue to feel that sense of disbelief. They were confounded by Russia’s
open and massive assault and amazed at Ukraine’s dogged and successful
resistance. How Wars Don’t End Ukraine,
Russia, And The Lessons Of World War I.
|
The east wind
prevails over the west wind, or the west wind prevails over the east wind.
It is characteristic of the situation today. That the east wind is winning
over the west wind, Xi seems to agree. But he needs a vast army
of weathermen to tell him exactly how the wind blows. What Does The West Know About Xi’s China?
We live in an age of
inequality - or so we’re frequently told. Across the globe, but especially
in the wealthy economies of the West, the gap between the rich and the rest
has widened year after year and become a chasm, spreading anxiety, stoking
resentment, and roiling politics. The
World To Come.
Unless that
changes, the US and others cannot treat India as it treats Japan, South
Korea, and NATO allies in Europe. Instead, It must treat India as it treats
Jordan, Vietnam, and other illiberal partners. In other words, it must
cooperate with India on the reality of shared interests, not the hope of
shared values. India As It Is.
As is known,
Ukraine earlier had the world’s third-largest nuclear weapons
stockpile. In exchange for giving it up, and as stipulated in
the Budapest Memorandum, Russia and the US agreed to come to
Ukraine’s help if Ukraine was attacked, ironically by Russia itself. The State Of The World.
Support for
Ukraine - Through of sustained military assistance and efforts to anchor the
country in the West through membership in the European Union and NATO -
will pave the way for improved relations with a new Russia. The Treacherous Path To A Better Russia.
As Titan rescue,
this afternoon hopes to fade, and grim choices near. The search grew to
double the size of Connecticut and 2.5 miles deep, as the vessel’s 96-hour
oxygen supply is estimated to run out Thursday:
To survive and prosper in a world of battling
giants, Europe must transform itself from a militarily weak confederation
into a genuine superpower. Europe’s
Real Test Is Yet to Come.
In this moment of change,
it may be that China’s willingness to allow other countries to flex their
muscles may make Beijing a more attractive partner than Washington, with
its demands for ever-closer alignment. If the world is entering a
disordered phase, China could be best placed to prosper. China Is Ready For A World Of Disorder.
Today The Times, June 23, 2023/carries
an article about Gatecrashers plotting to breach Glastonbury
festival's fences this year could, if they succeed, jeopardize the event's
future, the organizers said yesterday. Unveiling an
"impenetrable" £1m security fence, the festival's founder,
Michael Eavis, urged those without tickets to stay away to safeguard the
future of Europe's most enduring music and arts festival. However, one
cannot understand the Glastonbury Festival without its secret History. The Secret History Of The Glastonbury
Festival.
Success could
preserve Ukraine, allay broader fears for democracy, deter further Russian
aggression, and put concerns of an escalation to rest. The kind of stable,
durable peace the Korean armistice produced would be a victory for Ukraine,
its supporters, and the world. The
Korea Model.
The Wagner mercenary group is unlikely to continue
as a “Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form,” according to
the Institute for the Study of War. The deal brokered by the
Belarusian president would strip Yevgeniy Prigozhin of control over the
group and bring some of it under the Russian Defense Ministry, the think
tank said. Crisis Abates, But
Questions Remain.
|
For ASEAN to
Survive a Great-Power Competition, it may be better to consider
Southeast Asia’s approach to nonalignment and multi-alignment. The region
wants as many ties and choices as it can muster. In addition to China and
the United States, it has welcomed Australia, India, Japan, and European
states to actively engage with the region – to trade, invest, and
participate in its international dialogues. How to Survive A Great-Power Competition.
According to Foreign Policy, the Russian military
in occupied areas of Ukraine has already started battening the hatches for
the coming counteroffensive. In the city of Berdyansk, on the northern
shore of the Azov Sea, Russian troops have begun fortifying the airport
with trenches and pyramidal anti-tank obstacles known as ‘dragon’s teeth.’
Occupation troops have also started digging defensive fortifications in
Crimea, including at the port of Sevastopol and Belbek Air Base, which has
already been hit with blasts since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began more than
a year ago. The invaders have been digging in, not advancing. What’s
missing are the tools to root them out. Waiting
On Weapons.
While one
can identify reasons Russia and Ukraine may have mutual optimism about
war and pessimism about peace, a resolve supporting Ukraine will also
help deter aggression in other parts of the world. History has its
moments, and this is one of them. A
Partial Victory Will Solve Little.
The best way to
ensure Euro-Atlantic security is to welcome Ukraine into NATO. Politicians,
diplomats, and analysts can always be counted on to develop new arguments
for keeping Ukraine outside the alliance, as they have been doing for
years. The good news is that each new idea is weaker than the last. The bad
news is that constantly disproving them wastes precious time at the expense
of people’s security. Ukraine needs NATO, and NATO needs Ukraine. Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
Although Putin and
Xi probably do not agree on how the war in Ukraine should end, they agree
that an apparent Russian defeat would be intolerable. It should be
stated repeatedly that the war in Ukraine is existential for Europeans, and
impeding Chinese intervention is a fundamental European interest. By wading
into the conflict, China would lose Europe. The Question Of Chinese Military Support
For Russia.
Bad Advice
Plaguing Beijing Pressure on Chinese President Xi to put all the pieces
together. And this imperative might help explain the balloon blunder: Xi
may have approved a general policy for balloon reconnaissance, perhaps
years ago, with limited debate about how such a policy could backfire in
the future. The possibility of such miscalculations in the coming years
should cause concern for U.S. policymakers. The Chinese military may tell
Xi it is ready for war, and a catastrophe could ensue if the rest of the
bureaucracy is institutionally prevented from checking the military’s math.
The Bad Advice Plaguing President Xi.
Open-source researchers have provided insights
into sensitive Chinese activities, such as CCP espionage and political
interference abroad. If the intelligence community can obtain more
open-source intel and embrace AI-enabled tools to examine the data, its
analysts would be able to learn-and share-even more. If the community can
recruit China experts, it will better anticipate Beijing’s actions and
focus analysts’ activities and resources. Beijing’s decision-making may
remain opaque, but Washington will still be able to understand China’s
behavior. How To Spy On China.
Experts say that donated MiG jets will not give
Ukraine air superiority against Russia: The Ukrainians who have flown the
MiG-29 describe the aircraft as an “old friend.” The jets don’t have the
flashiness of newer fighters, but they play a critical role in Ukraine’s
underdog air force. The MiG-29s may not be enough for Ukraine’s coming
spring offensive. They are outmatched by Russian warplanes, equipped with
newer radar and missile systems. Ukraine
Today.
The US should undoubtedly help India to a degree
compatible with American interests. But it should harbor no illusions
that its support, no matter how generous, will entice India to join it in
any military coalition against China. The relationship with India is
fundamentally unlike those the United States enjoys with its allies. India Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing.
China’s rapidly aging population and increasingly
rigid, autocratic political system will severely hobble the country as it
stumbles toward the middle of the twenty-first century. The Consequences Of China’s Demographic
Decline.
At a time when
foreign policies have fallen into disfavor, and the domestic
coalitions associated with them have splintered, leaders could find
new arguments about the necessity of international openness and
cooperation. Western democracies cannot return to the postwar liberal
order. They can, however, search for new ways of securing the benefits that
the former order brought. Make The
Center Vital Again.
Russia “likely staged” the alleged drone strike on
the Kremlin, according to the nstitute for the Study of War (ISW). The
US-based think tank claimed it was an attempt to “bring the war home”,
possibly paving the war for a broader mobilization. The Latest News.
For now, they’re concentrated
on only one thing: to destroy our [military] stockpiles, and ground forces,
trying to avoid our offensive operations, said the Ukrainian officials.
With F-16s, we can ruin Russian jets, and they won’t be able to launch any
cruise missiles or even smart bombs. Ukrainian
War Going Forward.
Ukraine’s Western partners
will continue helping Ukraine frustrate Russia’s aggressive designs on the
battlefield and gather evidence of its crimes. They should hold back on
bolder steps until the end of peace, and justice are more clearly aligned,
and Nuremberg’s legacy can be more fully honored. A Loophole In The Law.
The international
community must dispel misperceptions and convince the Chinese public and
leadership of the benefits and feasibility of open-minded, good-faith
discussions on Taiwan. Although challenging, this is what it will take to
prevent an increasingly likely war - with catastrophic consequences for
all. Xi Jinping's Hawkish Forces He Can’t
Control.
|
The coming Ukrainian offensive will do much to set
expectations for the future trajectory of this war. The real challenge is
thinking through what comes after. Beyond
Ukraine’s Offensive.
Ukraine’s Hidden
Advantage How European Trainers Have Transformed Kyiv’s Army and Changed
the War. The willingness of European countries to put significant resources
on the line - even in areas where the United States is doing comparatively
little - has become increasingly vital to Ukraine’s defense and will be
crucial to its continued success. How
Ukraine Learned To Fight.
Putin would see a
serious Wagner setback as a capital offense. The Russian president has a
long record of effectively using failed bureaucrats, politicians, and other
henchmen - former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev comes to
mind. Prigozhin could be next. Stalin’s
Secret Force.
Some 52 million
Thais are eligible to vote in Sunday’s election, with the opposition
parties promising to end the military’s political dominance and even reform
the all-powerful monarchy – an issue once seen as taboo: Thailand, China, And The US.
After his meeting with Italian President Sergio
Mattarella and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni today, Zelenskyy met with Pope
Francis for 40 minutes at the Vatican amid the Pontiff’s efforts to bring
an end to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Whereby flying
next to Germany Zelensky met his German counterpart Frank-Walter
Steinmeier, on his first trip to Germany since Russia's invasion. Vexing The Ukraine War On The Ground.
Unable to protest openly, people are expressing a
different kind of resistance by reading literature that is banned,
discouraged, or casts an unfavorable light on the regime - if only by
comparison. At first glance, this kind of resistance might not seem like
much, especially given the ongoing war, which most Russians say they
support. Yet the act of reading these books should not be dismissed
lightly. 1984 In Russia Today.
Opening up more
pathways for highly skilled workers will be vital to preserving and
promoting national competitiveness and security. Without such changes, the
promise of the CHIPS and Science Act will remain unfulfilled. The Battle For Brains.
Yesterday, when Ukraine
downs the Russian barrage, China is now sending a special envoy to Ukraine
to help reach a political settlement that many say would benefit Russia.
The intercept of Russian intelligence shows Beijing wanted to disguise
lethal aid. But China will proceed cautiously. The Consequences Of China’s Peace Deal.
For too long, Africa
has been seen through the lens of its recent past rather than its potential
future. Demographic trends are now placing Africa front and center as the
one region that can sustain global growth. The Youthful Continent.
The G-7 Hiroshima
summit is a unique opportunity to express a determination to reinforce a free
and open international order while proactively addressing the needs of
people across the globe, including those in the global South. The Defence Of Global Order And Address
Global Crises.
As China seeks greater commercial and military
advantage across the world’s oceans, its expansive global network of
commercial ports reflects and amplifies its growing power. Lifelines And Chokepoints.
The original goal
of U.S. policymakers in the decade after World War II was to help Europeans
get back on their feet and defend themselves. Yet rather than recognize
that these countries are now capable of doing so, some officials in
Washington ironically seem to fear this real success, grasping for a reason
to make the U.S. presence in Europe permanent and extend U.S. defense
commitments further. Spread Too Thin?
A shared Western
framework for de-risking would offer a more coordinated, balanced, and
practical approach to competition with China. It may also strengthen,
rather than erode, the foundations of a stronger transatlantic
alliance. The U.S.-Chinese
Economic Relationship.
Fresh off his claim of victory in capturing the
Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Russian mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin warned
that Moscow’s brutal war could plunge Russia into turmoil similar to the
1917 revolution unless its detached, wealthy elite became more directly
committed to the conflict. Prepare For A
Brutal War.
When Putin and his
team members talk about a new multipolar world, they try to reassert
Moscow’s lost superpower status and portray themselves as a guiding light
for the former Soviet republics and the countries of Africa, Asia, and
Latin America. All of this is a consequence of the psychological trauma of
the collapse of the Soviet Union, which the elite who came to power in 2000
carried with them. Twenty-two years later, that trauma has resulted in a
global catastrophe. How Putin Revived
Stalinism.
The trilateral
security pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States,
known as AUKUS, which will assist Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered
submarines, could include India. A
Nuclear Collision Course In South Asia.
No one should
underestimate how disastrous a slide toward a protracted, all-out conflict
in Sudan would be - primarily for the Sudanese but more broadly. At a time
when other crises stretch the world’s humanitarian system to the breaking
point. Sudan And The New Age Of
Conflict.
Leaders who tacitly or otherwise encourage
personal violence are just as likely to create political violence. Russian
propagandists frequently frame Ukraine as a disobedient woman unwilling to
be contained within the Russian sphere of influence. Chinese propagandists
did the same for Hong Kong, casting it as a willful (and feminine) child.
The language of violence at home and the language of violence overseas are
intimately joined. Political Violence
In Authoritarian Societies.
Putin may
wager that time is still on his side and that even a drawn-out,
nonnuclear war of attrition will wear out the Ukrainian war machine and its
backers. But his narcissistic focus on maintaining his hold on power could
drastically shrink the time horizon. Is
Worse To Come From Putin?
Can Israel's
Two-State Solution Be Saved? Debating
Israel’s One-State Reality.
In July, the heads of NATO’s 31 countries will
convene in Vilnius, Lithuania, for a summit - their fourth one since Russia
invaded Ukraine. Like each of the last three, the proceedings will be
dominated by how to address the conflict. Let Ukraine
Join NATO Now.
|
Nearly a decade
after its inception, the momentum behind China’s sweeping Belt and Road Initiative appears
to be slowing as lending slumps and projects stall - forcing Chinese
President Xi Jinping to rethink again a floundering initiative that he once
hailed as his “project of the century.” After doling out hundreds of
billions of dollars, experts say China’s lending for BRI projects has
plummeted. Support has also waned as partner countries drown in debt and
fractures emerge – literally - in projects, fueling uncertainty about the
future of the sprawling initiative. In 2022, 60 percent of China’s overseas
lending went to borrowers in financial distress, compared to just 5 percent
in 2010.
Players should put less faith in its ability
to calibrate the pressure on Iran to the right level. Military escalation
is containable until it is not, and the time horizon for conflict can often
be longer and more painful than countries anticipate. Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin, former U.S. President Donald Trump, and Brexit supporters
thought they could undermine or even destroy the EU by bullying it. The
opposite has happened. Far-right populist leaders such as France’s Marine
Le Pen or Italy’s Matteo Salvini no longer call for exits from the EU. Vera
Jourova, the European Commission vice president for values and
transparency, recently admitted she had been “scared” of Trump’s former
chief strategist, Steve Bannon, and his negative influence on the European
parliamentary election in 2019. Now, those fears are gone. Jourova thinks
that in 2024 when European voters go to the polls again, they will vote for
established, more moderate parties because “the people now see, especially
in the time of crisis, it’s not the time for [populist] experiments: Europe And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.
Putin claims he’s fighting Nazis in Ukraine while
his regime intimidates Jews in Russia. Zelenskyy was born to a
Ukrainian Jewish family, the President of Ukraine. In this article, we
also look at the inherent conservatism of the Russian Church, making it
perceive church tradition as the ultimate authority. Even today, this
pro-Ukraine war thinking manifests within the Russian Church and some
national patriot thinkers'. Russia's
Anti-Jewish Dimension.
The right
technology is necessary but insufficient to win wars. Suppose the United
States hopes to persevere against Russia in the short term and China in the
long term. In that case, it must consider the economic impact of technology
even as it pursues a technological advantage. Does Technology Win Wars?
Basic values lie
at the foundation of an innovation ecosystem that is still the world's
envy. They have enabled breakthroughs that have transformed everyday life
around the world. Silicon Valley’s old mantra holds: innovate or die in
industry and geopolitics. Technology
Defines The Future Of Geopolitics.
Washington should not
forget the misguided policies Americans hatched 70 years ago. The warning
of what not to do in a moment of deteriorating U.S.-Chinese relations. China Is A Paper Tiger.
Putin’s partial
escalation strategy has served him well. It has allowed him to maintain
political stability through intimidation and indifference. Internationally
and domestically, it has helped him prepare Russia for a very long war
without making the sacrifices that might ultimately cause the population to
rebel. And above all, it has given him flexibility. How Long Can This Not-Quite-Total War Be
Sustained?
Netanyahu is faced with a political and strategic
Rubik’s cube. He will need strong support and understanding from Washington
to achieve his international goals - containing Iran and normalizing ties
with Saudi Arabia. This requires taking steps opposed by his radical
coalition partners domestically and on the Palestinian front. The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety
And Security.
For the foreseeable
future, there are no transformative solutions that the West can invent or
impose on Iran, and the country will remain a profound and unpredictable
threat to regional stability, U.S. interests, and its own citizenry. The
protests should give the world hope: for the first time in a generation,
the theocracy appears to be in jeopardy. But until the regime falls, there
will be no silver bullets to stop Iran’s bad behavior. We Investigate A Sorbid History Under Pressure.
The manifold initiatives that have emerged to
support Ukraine and its people across what was once the Russian empire
demonstrate a readiness to reject Moscow’s long shadow and fertile ground
for grassroots cooperation after the war ends. No matter in what terms one
understands it, Russia’s full-scale invasion has brought discussions of
identity - individual, social, and political - to the fore. The Conversations When Ukraine Wins.
In the wake of Beijing’s repeated
COVID-19 lockdowns and after Russia invaded Ukraine, investors
are increasingly rattled about the risks of investing in China. China Will Lead The Next Technological
Revolution.
Haitian efforts at
democracy are too complicated and messy, and foreign countries and
international agencies have responded with intervention to manipulate
electoral levers and outcomes. But those outside efforts have failed
spectacularly. The Haitian Government Is
Dependent On International Power.
Prime Minister of
the United Kingdom Rishi Sunak was right to judge that because Russia
invaded Ukraine, the need for Western unity now trumps any simmering
intra-Western fights over Brexit. But with China, the United States, and
the European Union all betting big on industrial policy to facilitate their
economic transitions toward renewable energy, the United Kingdom still
needs to catch up. Sunak Hopes To Mend
Fences With Europe.
As Russia has waged war on Ukraine in a bid to
kneecap the country’s independence, its troops have looted museums, art
galleries, and cathedrals in occupied areas. Some experts have
described it as the biggest heist since the Nazis plundered Europe during
World War II. Looting As A Potential
War Crime.
While earlier
pointed out that Putin's looting as a
potential war crime, and the conversations
when Ukraine wins, Russia will gradually drift toward an economic and political model resembling
Iran’s—and will become increasingly dependent on China. The greater
tribulation for Russia may be that such an Iranian-style outcome could be
quite durable, and every year that it lasts will further diminish the
chances that Russia will resolve the conflict with Ukraine, repent for the
harm done, restore ties with the outside world, and bring balance and
pragmatism to its foreign policy. The
Russia That Might Have Been.
“Russia’s nature as an imperial power is
incontrovertible,” Artem Shaipov and Yuliia Shaipova write. “So why has
this fundamental, foundational fact about Russia been ignored in the West
for so long, including among those who study and analyze the region?” But
regardless of the reason, the war in Ukraine has sparked a newfound
awareness of Russia’s imperial project, past and present—the nature of
Russian imperialism and its relationship to the country’s latest war of
conquest. Putin Remains In Day-To-Day
Government.
With Russia and Ukraine still getting ready for direct
talks, necessary third parties could accelerate their prior
preparations and begin pre-negotiations. Otherwise, Russia and Ukraine
could fall into a vicious cycle of self-deception, denial of diplomacy, and
endless war. How To Prepare For Peace
Talks In Ukraine.
U.S. policymakers
have responded to frustrations in Iraq in a similar way that they responded
to failure in Vietnam almost five decades ago: they have continued to
engage in active military interventions but avoided large-scale ground
deployments. Iraq syndrome is undoubtedly real, but it may be felt more
intensely among elites than the public. How Elites Misread Public Perceptions Of The War.
Ukraine’s success in defending itself does not
demonstrate that U.S. security assistance works writ large but, instead,
that U.S. security assistance is most useful when those receiving the aid
are driven to do whatever it takes to strengthen their forces. Ukraine’s Determination.
European Economies
Limp into 2023: The economic downturn is most severe in the countries
of Eastern Europe, which are more affected by the Russia-Ukraine war.
The International
Criminal Court said Friday that it had issued an arrest warrant for Russian
President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, accusing him of personal
responsibility for the abductions of children from Ukraine. The court
said there “are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr. Putin bears
individual criminal responsibility” for the alleged crimes, for having
committed them directly alongside others, and for “his failure to exercise
control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the
acts.” Putin, The Suspect.
An end to the war is likely a long way off, but
the time to begin preparing for peace is not after the last gun falls
silent but now, as the conflict rages, to discuss and develop concepts
before negotiations begin. Otherwise, they will have little chance of
success. Ending this war will require a clear and cogent vision for a new
security architecture for the region. It must be ready for when the
opportunity to end the shooting arises. And because Ukraine promised
it would not join military alliances like Nato. How To Protect Ukraine Without NATO Membership.
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China, Taiwan, and the US better resist analysis that
could become a self-fulfilling prophecy and ensure that alternatives to the
conflict remain viable. It is better not to refer to Taiwan as a
country. Washington can help bolster Taiwan’s defenses but do so
without signaling dramatic changes in U.S. military support, which risks
inadvertently creating the impression that Beijing has a limited window to
invade. Beijing. Don’t Panic About
Taiwan.
As detailed by
Andrzej Żbikowski, acts of murdering Polish Jews by their Christian
neighbors had occurred in 67 locations. In most cases,
German police, Einsatzgruppen, or Wehrmacht were joined
by non-Jewish locals, mostly Poles, in 51 towns and
villages. Poland 1941.
Putin’s self-interested illusions about history
and his legacy as a great Russian leader started this war, and his
self-interest will end it. For now, Putin has no incentive to stop fighting.
That means that Ukraine must either end the war for him or threaten Putin
with a defeat - one so unambiguous that he sees it as a matter of
self-preservation to negotiate. Putin’s
Forever War.
With Xi Jinping
beginning a third term and China growing increasingly belligerent in its
interactions with Taiwan, it is best to ensure that Beijing does not grow
overconfident in thinking it can deter the US in the wake of an invasion.
China best understands the true risks of a conflict over the island. How To Avoid Catastrophe.
The Kremlin has
expanded efforts to promote pro-Russian and anti-Western narratives
regarding the Ukraine conflict. The failure of the pro-Ukraine allies to
develop tools in the information space is evident in Russia, where popular
support for the war appears to remain strong. The Limits Of Economic Warfare.
The Ukrainian military’s skill at integrating
advanced weapons and new technologies has continually surprised its
adversary and Ukraine’s partners and allies in the West. Yet it is
difficult to say whether a decisive end to a war like this is possible. The Promise Of Military Adaptation.
President Xi Jinping's message about war
preparation and his equating national rejuvenation with unification mark a
new phase in his political warfare campaign to intimidate Taiwan. He is
willing to use force to take the island. What remains unclear is whether he
thinks he can do so without risking uncontrolled escalation with the United
States. Xi Jinping Preparing China For
War.
The US has shifted
its defense strategy from counterterrorism to competition with China and
Russia. But words are not enough. America Fill
The Missile Gap.
The Cuban Crisis holds
lessons for today when many commentators in Russia and the West call for a
resolute victory of one side or the other in Ukraine. Some Americans and
Europeans assume that the use of nuclear weapons in the current crisis is
completely out of the question. But plenty of people in Russia, especially
around Putin and among his propagandists, defiantly say that Moscow should
prefer a nuclear Armageddon to defeat. When
The Past Does Not Go Away.
Unlike those in Western democracies, China’s
intelligence services are not held to account by independent political
bodies or the public, nor are they subject to the rule of law. Instead, the
Chinese government fuses a “whole of society” approach to collecting
intelligence. This sets it apart from anything undertaken by Western
governments. Spy Balloons TikTok And
Chinese Intelligence.
When world leaders
gather in Dubai for this year’s UN Climate Change Conference; they should
agree to set a limit for rising seas just as they have for rising
temperatures. Doing so would underscore the existential threat small island
nations and thousands of coastal communities face. Measure The Harm Of Climate Change.
A new global security paradigm is urgently needed
whereby the ultimate nuclear fail-safe measure would be to eliminate
nuclear weapons, once and for all, verifiably. That historic step, however,
is unrealistic in the near term, given the growing great-power tensions and
the decline of arms control regimes. Confronting
The New Nuclear Peril.
Putin has
concentrated enormous power in his hands. But the more power he
accumulates, the harder it will be for him to relax and hand over the
reins. He cannot afford to liberalize the system or decrease his
dictatorial authority. Only one way is left open to him: to cling to power
until the bitter end. Dictator
Without Borders.
Classified war documents on U.S. and NATO efforts
to support Ukraine’s military ahead of a planned spring counteroffensive
were posted to social media this week. The
Leaked Documents.
In the not-so-distant
past, officials and experts thought excessive fears about energy security
might hinder the fight for the climate. Today, the opposite is true: as the
transition to a net-zero world proceeds, the bigger danger to the climate
will be insufficient attention to energy security. How The Fight For Resources Is Upending Geopolitics.
Russian aggression in Ukraine and competition between
China and the United States have made the world more uncertain and
dangerous. The Ukraine war will likely be prolonged, and the U.S.-Chinese
rivalry seems set to become the defining feature of international relations
in the twenty-first century. The
New Age Of Great-Power Competition.
Changes are happening, the likes of which we
haven’t seen for 100 years,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping said to Russian
President Vladimir Putin last month at the end of a state visit to Russia.
“Let’s drive those changes together.” To this, the Russian leader
responded, “I agree.” Russia And China
Behind The Scenes.
The West should
not reward Russian aggression by compelling Ukraine to permanently accept
the loss of territory by force. The solution is to end the war while
deferring the ultimate disposition of land still under Russian
occupation. A Plan For Getting
To The Negotiating Table.
Unlike many of its
European peers who were or still are unwilling to come to terms with
Russia’s or China’s aggressively revisionist ambitions, Tokyo has not let
its massive economic exposure to Beijing get in the way of dealing with it.
The Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv
And Xi In Moscow.
Relatively little
of the world’s attention focuses on Kashmir today. When it does, it’s
increasingly seen through a lens of opportunity, and G-20 delegations will
soon visit. But repression persists since New Delhi revoked its
semi-autonomy in 2019. Kashmir
Today.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to
power in Israel has shattered even the illusion of a two-state solution.
Members of his new government have not been shy about stating their views
on what Israel is and what it could be in all the territories it controls. Confronting A One-State
Reality.
The war in Ukraine
has sparked a puzzling development in U.S. national security thinking. At
the same time as U.S.-European cooperation has surged, an influential group
of American scholars, analysts, and commentators have begun pressing the
United States to prepare to scale back its commitment to Europe
radically. Stripping the United States European commitments would
demolish much of its accumulated legitimacy. It would validate the grim
picture that China and Russia are now painting that the U.S. is pitilessly
self-interested and transactional. It would severely undermine the United
States painstaking attempts to build a reputation as that rare great power
offering something other than naked ambition to the world. Ukraine And U.S. National Security.
We covered earlier
that a Russian disintegration is coming. Those who believe a
Russian collapse is imminent and those who warn against it agree on one
thing: The Russian Federation has never indeed been a federation.
Decentralization is the key, Khodorkovsky said. Whenever the time comes for
the West to lift sanctions, it must negotiate with a government that has
received legitimacy from the regions. The Coming Russia Disintegration.
From India to Indonesia, Brazil to Turkey, and
Nigeria to South Africa, developing countries increasingly seek to avoid
costly entanglements with significant powers, trying to keep all their
options open for maximum flexibility. Managing
A Multipolar World.
India has little
tolerance for European critiques, given the continent’s harsh immigration
policies and sordid colonial history. Its government will not allow outside
powers to browbeat the country, especially when it finds its sweet spot.
Much as during Nehru’s time, India’s self-interested foreign policy has
earned it many partners and very few enemies despite worldwide turmoil. It
is learning to punch above its weight and displaying newfound confidence.
It will not be stopped from asserting its international interests. India’s Great-Power Opportunity.
The war in Ukraine reveals that the EU is a
postimperial empire, in strategic partnership with an American postimperial
empire, to prevent the comeback of a declining Russian empire from
constraining a rising Chinese one. Ghosts Of
Empires Past.
|
CIA Director William
J. Burns traveled in secret to Ukraine’s capital at the end of last week to
brief President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia
is planning militarily in the coming weeks and months, said a U.S. official
and other people familiar with the visit while on 19 February Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the private
military company the Wagner Group, said on Thursday that the group
had taken control of the village of Klishchiivka, a suburb of the embattled city of Bakhmut. He also said fighting with
Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut was ongoing. Meanwhile, the Russian-installed
acting governor of the Kherson region, Volodymyr Saldo, said Kyiv had
transferred some of its troops to the Donbas region. Meanwhile, Berlin has been in a stand-off with Washington over
the provision of tanks to Ukraine, saying Germany will only do so if the
United States sends them, too.
There is the belief that Western sanctions on
Russia have fallen flat. Whereby outlets like the Washington Post
write that: Sanctions may bite harder; how quickly that happens
will depend on persistence in the West. Looking at the details, we argue; Why The Sanctions In Russia Are Already Biting
Hard.
Among the more
overlooked geopolitical developments in 2022 was North Korea’s nuclear
weapons program. But if the West can cut off more of Kim’s sources of
revenue, it will not only create a significant barrier to his WMD program.
It is also possible that such financial pressure could ultimately force Kim
to the negotiating table because it would threaten his ability to dole out
the favors needed to buy off the North Korean elite. Today’s Situation In Korea.
The regime of
Russian President Vladimir Putin is living on borrowed time. The tide of history is turning. Everything from Ukraine’s advances
on the battlefield to the West’s enduring unity and resolve in the face of Putin’s aggression points to 2023 being a decisive
year. If the West holds firm, Putin’s regime will likely collapse shortly. 2023 Is The Decisive Year.
Mozart’s
Requiem. Mozart composed part of the Requiem in Vienna in late 1791, but
it was unfinished at his death on 5 December. A completed version dated
1792 by Franz Xaver Süssmayr was delivered to Count Franz von Walsegg, who
commissioned the piece. Mozart’s wife Constanze was responsible for
several stories surrounding the work’s composition, including the claims
that Mozart received the commission from a mysterious messenger who did not
reveal the commissioner’s identity and that Mozart came to believe that he
was writing the requiem for his funeral. The
Mystery Surrounding Mozart’s Requiem.
Having launched a senseless, brutal, and
unsuccessful war of aggression, Putin is unlikely to survive it
in power. Why European leaders need to look for a successor; They Can Do Business With.
On the same
day (22-23 January 2023), there was also an important meeting during
the World Economic Forum attended by finance ministers and heads of State,
including the head of NATO seated in the center, who all decided that while
the situation is very dire for the Ukrainians at this moment that it is of
utmost importance that Ukraine win this war because otherwise, the war
could spread to other countries who are part of NATO.
‘Utterly
Shameful’: Uyghurs’ Frustration Grows Over Lack Of International Action
Against China. Official documents leaked from Xinjiang reveal that
people were detained for such trivial causes as having traveled abroad or
simply possessing a passport, communicating with people overseas,
performing daily Muslim prayer rituals, or wearing a veil. Detention Camps.
Why study history? We hope to better guide our
future by understanding the past. History also could prepare us for action.
In this context, the diplomat and historian George F. Kennan ranks as one
of the most influential figures in foreign policy. Kennan was a sui
generis thinker, a trenchant critic of communism and capitalism, and a
pioneering environmentalist. Living between Russia and the United States,
he witnessed firsthand Stalin’s tightening grip on the Soviet Union, the
collapse of Europe during World War II, and the nuclear arms race of the
Cold War. Those Who Cannot Remember The
Past Are Condemned To Repeat It.
American, Dutch,
and Japanese equipment makers stemming from the October export controls can
be offset by new demand from local semiconductor manufacturing facilities
now being buttressed by the U.S. CHIPS Act and by Japanese and European
subsidies. Export Control Cooperation From
Allies.
Unlike during the
financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic failed to spark Chinese-U.S.
cooperation and only intensified deepening antagonism. China and the United
States jab accusatory fingers at each other, blame each other for bad
policies, and trade barbs about a global economic downturn from which both
countries and the world have yet to recover. The World Has Changed.
President Xi may see an opportunity if the West appears
distracted about Taiwan. To change his calculus, Taiwan, the United States,
and its allies must show they are resolute about thwarting an invasion.
With China’s increasingly bellicose declarations about retaking the island,
time is running out for Washington to demonstrate commitment through
action. The Looming Taiwan Crisis.
Our forecast is,
among others, done by paying attention to regions and nations whose
actions significantly affect the global system. 2023 Annual Forecast.
George Kennan, the
remarkable U.S. diplomat and probing observer of international relations,
is famous for forecasting the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kennan On Ukraine.
The future cities are here – or at least. From
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s dreams of Neom, a $500 billion
planned city, to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitions for the city of
Xiongan, which he calls his “personal initiative,” so-called smart cities
are being built from the ground up, to considerable global skepticism. What The Cities Of The Future Will Look Like.
Editorial: On The Leaks Of A War With China Plus A
Recension In Europe.
As long as Russian
soldiers occupy their country, Ukrainians will fight. They will fight with
or without new advanced weapons, with or without harsher sanctions, and
with or without money to help them run their country. Understanding this
key insight about the Ukrainian mentality today leads to an obvious policy
recommendation. Breakthrough In Ukraine.
FTX bankruptcy
judge denies request for the independent examiner.
Beijing is
unlikely to subordinate its territorial objectives or quest for dominance
to a disciplined strategy for splitting the United
States from its Indo-Pacific allies. Just this month, after Japan and
South Korea established new pandemic-related travel restrictions for
Chinese tourists, Beijing stopped issuing short-term visas to Japanese and
South Korean citizens. China’s
Indo-Pacific Folly.
Editorial: U.S. to Boost Military Role in
Philippines as Fear of Taiwan Conflict Grows.
While E.U. leaders
arrived in Kyiv for a wartime summit today, Russian President Putin
probably believes that his best ally is time. Yet Instead of allowing the
conflict to drag on through the winter, the US and NATO allies should help
Ukraine bring the war to a swift and decisive end. Doing so might allow
Crimea’s final status to be determined through negotiation rather than
force, sparing Ukraine and Russia the tragedy of another year of fighting. What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea.
Editorial: Noor Inayat Khan, also known as Nora
Inayat-Khan and Nora Baker, was a British resistance agent in France in
World War II who served in the Special Operations Executive (SOE). As we
detailed many years ago, the purpose of SOE was to
conduct espionage, sabotage, and reconnaissance in countries occupied by
the Axis powers, especially those occupied by Nazi Germany. Codename Madeleine.
On several
occasions, Erdogan has sought the Russian leader’s authorization to conduct
major operations in Syria against the United States Kurdish allies there,
and Putin demurred. As the Finnish foreign minister intimated, suspicions
of Russian involvement in the recent Koran-burning incidents may mean that
Moscow could decide to stir the pot by giving Turkey the green light in
Syria. Will Erdogan Stay In Power?
Editorial: The US administration has canceled Secretary of State Antony
Blicken's trip to China following the appearance of a Chinese surveillance
balloon over the US. Why Are
Meteorologists Tracking The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?
Ukraine’s electric grid can be reinforced, but
time is short. NATO’s leaders must give their full attention to this
looming crisis if they - and the Ukrainians - do not want to be left in the
dark. Ukraine’s Coming
Electricity Crisis.
The global economy
is facing a potential recession in 2023 that threatens to undo the
post-pandemic job recovery:
Chinese
surveillance balloons have previously been spotted over five continents,
the official said, and the United States is briefing allies and partners
about the practice. Blinken says the US to share info on the alleged spy balloon
with allies. Possibility That Chinese Spy
Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.
Iranian and Ukrainian officials recently met in
Oman to discuss Iran’s role in the war. This was a good start. Europe and
the United States should build on such efforts, launching a broader
diplomatic initiative beyond the stalled nuclear talks to encompass Ukraine
and regional issues. Otherwise, Iran’s hardliners will continue to push the
country in an ever more dangerous direction. An Even More Intransigent Regime.
Efforts from the United States and Israel’s other
allies to discourage provocative visits and settlements in hot-button areas
are examples of modest steps that may often fail but can head off broader
confrontations. How To Prevent A Third
Intifada.
|
We know that
Ukraine's president Zelenski is currently paying a visit to the UK, where
he will address Parliament and visit Ukrainian troops trained by British
forces. Yet three months before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, CIA
Director William Burns and U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan met in
Moscow with Nikolai Patrushev, an ultra-hawkish adviser to Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Burns and Sullivan informed Patrushev that they
knew of Russia’s invasion plans and that the West would respond with severe
consequences if Russia proceeded. According to Burns, Patrushev said
nothing about the invasion. Instead, he looked them in the eye, conveying
what Burns took as a message: the Russian military could achieve what it
wanted. Can Moscow Learn From Its Failures
In Ukraine?
Editorial: The investigators said insufficient evidence existed to begin any
new prosecutions. The announcement comes less than three months after
a Dutch court convicted two Russians and a Ukrainian for murder over the
disaster. Indications Putin Decided To
Give The Missile That Downed MH17.
With
India chairing the G-20 in 2023, New Delhi may be tempted to try to
mediate between Ukraine and Russia, though that seems unlikely to produce
results for now. A more fruitful way ahead would be for India to bring the
concerns of the global South to the forefront of the international agenda. The Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The
Developing World.
Trying to cut
costs by urging reforms in the US Defense Department and armed forces will
not produce significant savings and only distract from the urgency of
addressing what matters: improving the military’s ability to fight and win
wars, increasing stockpiles of essential weapons, and aiding allies in
upgrading their armed forces. In its next two years, the Biden
administration should find what was lacking in its first two, a seriousness
of purpose that matches the ambitions of the White House’s strategy. America Is Back.
Democracy is on
the agenda as US President Joe Biden and Brazilian President Luiz
Inacio Lula da Silva at the White House in Washington, DC. Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply
Interconnected.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) comprises Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.
Although loosely allied with Western powers like the United States, they’ve
been reluctant to get fully on board with anti-Russian measures. While
vastly smaller in size and population than the continental giants of China
and India, the GCC states have influenced key dynamics of the war in
Ukraine: energy, diplomacy, and the intersection of Eurasian geopolitics
with that of the Middle East. Key To The
Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Major Case Study: The Special Operations Executive (SOE) was a secret British World War
II organization. It was officially formed on 22 July 1940 from the
amalgamation of three existing secret organizations. Its purpose was to
conduct espionage, sabotage, and reconnaissance in occupied Europe (and
later, also in occupied Southeast Asia) against the Axis powers and to aid
local resistance movements. Few people were aware of SOE's existence. That
is why it came as a shocker when the complicity in the arrests of
SOE agents was revealed after the war when war crimes investigators
received factual information from German sources that it had been one of
their agents and that the information he provided had led to the arrest and
execution of many SOE agents and hundreds of their French associates. The Harrowing Story Of A Double Agent.
Russia’s war
in Ukraine has proven almost every assumption wrong, with Europe now
wondering whether what is left is safe to assume. Nowhere has Russia’s
invasion backfired more than in Ukraine. Contrary to Putin’s historical
revisionism, Ukraine has long had a national identity distinct from
Russia’s. Like Brexit, Western sanctions on Russia will be as a slow burn,
not an immediate collapse. Russia Is
Losing The War.
The last year's
events should also prevent everyone from making big predictions. Few people
outside of Ukraine, for example, expected the war or believed Russia would
perform poorly in its invasion. No one knows exactly what 2023 has in
store. That includes Putin. He appears to be in control now, but the
Kremlin could be in for a surprise. Events often unfold dramatically. As
the war in Ukraine has shown, many things don’t go according to plan. War in Ukraine Has Revealed About Putin’s Regime.
After years of democratic backsliding, the world’s
autocrats are finally on the defensive. But to seize this moment and swing
the pendulum of history back toward democratic rule, we must break down the
wall that separates democratic advocacy from economic development work and
demonstrate that democracies can deliver for their people. Counter Autocracy.
Comparing redacted
and unredacted versions of the same declassified documents from a given
period, they compiled a jokey “America’s Most Redacted” list of names most
frequently blacked out (including Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba
and Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq, both targets of CIA
operations). But There Is A Solution.
The basic problem
with wars is that they are easier to start than to end. Once Russia’s
initial thrusts were blunted, it was caught in a protracted conflict in
which it dared not concede defeat even when a path to victory remained
elusive. Such wars inevitably become attritional as stocks of equipment and
ammunition are depleted and troop losses mount. Make The Position Of The Russian Military Untenable.
Western public
opinion has so far remained relatively solid behind Ukraine’s plight,
despite signs of slippage in some countries. In a January poll by
Gallup, nearly two-thirds of Americans supported Ukraine’s effort to regain
its territory taken by Russian aggression. That’s roughly the same
proportion that held that position last summer, although Republican backing
for the war is wobbly. As costs mount to sustain Ukraine’s survival,
Kyiv’s successes on the battlefield would help buttress public opinion in
the United States and Europe - a pivotal moment in 21st-century
history. Fortifying Ukraine.
The reality is that Russia can’t avoid trying to
reassert power, and the West can’t avoid trying to resist. But in the end,
Russia can’t win. Russia was and remains a country of constant crises and
wars, while the primary motivation to think about the future stemmed from
the economic crises of 1998 and 2008–2009. Putin’s strategy has enabled
Russia to reappear on the world stage in unanticipated ways that will
continue to challenge the world. Remembering that the Kremlin does
not speak for all Russian citizens is also important. Russian Patriotic Death Cult.
Editorial: How Biden White House Operated Under
Cloak-And-Dagger Secrecy. Biden also said
he would announce another support package consisting of artillery
ammunition, anti-armor systems, and air surveillance. He also said the U.S.
will introduce later this week additional sanctions against “elites and
companies that are trying to evade or backfill Russia’s war machine.” The
meeting took place after government officials from around the globe
gathered at the annual Munich Security Conference. Representatives of
European countries and the United States discussed the war in Ukraine and
other regional issues, including Nagorno-Karabakh and Moldova’s
relationship with NATO.
If policymakers
can reject premature triumphalism, acknowledge the practical limits to
American power, learn to delegate defense to the states at the pointy end
of the spear, and grow more comfortable with the ambiguity needed to
navigate the dangerous areas where spheres of influence overlap, they may
be able to avoid disaster. The War
Started Due To Putin's Policy Failure.
After China, the top five economies in the region
are all democracies. But Beijing, developing advanced hypersonic missile
capabilities and on course to have 1,500 nuclear weapons in the next
decade, is threatening to destabilize what Aquilino calls the “rules-based
order” that has enabled nations “over the past eight decades to be secure,
sovereign, prosperous.'' Rattled By
China, The U.S., And Its Allies Are Beefing Up Defenses In The Pacific.
Editorial: President Joe Biden and his top officials repeatedly demonstrate
little awareness of these critical differences between the American and
Chinese systems. Biden tells Xi he wants competition instead of conflict
but then repeatedly says publicly that the United States will
defend Taiwan militarily and quips in his State of the Union that
no foreign leader wants Xi’s job. His secretary of defense is mystified
that his Chinese counterpart will not answer the phone, and Biden’s
advisers wonder why China will not discuss security guardrails. The answer
is that Xi does not want them. China Is
Practicing How to Sever Taiwan’s Internet.
The United Kingdom created a beta version of democracy
in the eighteenth century: innovative and progressive but long surpassed by
newer models. The country has, however, been extremely reluctant to abandon
even the most egregious anachronisms. The most significant transformation
in its governance was joining the European Union, which has been reversed. The U.K. Today.
Philippine Defense Secretary on Wednesday spoke
with his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin III, to discuss "concerning
developments” whereby “Secretary Austin underscored the United States'
commitment to supporting the lawful rights and operations of The Philippines In The South China Sea.
China may already
give Russia non-lethal military aid. Supplying weaponry would be a major
escalation - but a plausible one in the current geopolitical context. China
may also see the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to test its
weaponry. But every incident of Chinese intransigence convinces more
U.S. officials that China is not a good-faith partner. Solidify Global Divisions For The Coming Decades.
International
allies who had invested so much in reform efforts
in Ukraine feared that when Russia invaded, the government might
fall because of internal divisions and the lack of public trust. But
Ukraine didn’t fall, and now its citizens have much higher expectations for
the state and what needs to be done to rebuild the country. Tackling The Opportunity For Change.
Nearly one year
ago, a 40-mile-long column of tanks rolled toward Kyiv on the orders of
Russian President Vladimir Putin. He intended to conquer Ukraine in a few
days but instead exposed the weaknesses of his military. Rather than a
further expression of Russian imperialism, the war may now represent a
stunning reversal of those ambitions, as Ukraine increasingly considers
trying to retake Crimea, which Putin seized nearly a decade ago and has
since absorbed into Russia. Sanctions Can
Help End Putin’s Imperial Pretensions If The West Keeps Its Nerve.
Putin remains dug in, committed to throwing
Russian troops at his objectives no matter the human cost. But the
Ukrainians can prevail - as long as NATO supports their struggle for
freedom, democracy, and security. The
War Will Go On Into Next Year.
|
Yesterday, the
European Parliament designated Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. Whereas
elsewhere, U.S. Senators are alarmed by hundreds of intrusions by China
over the White House, Capitol, and Pentagon as espionage. Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And More.
Imran Khan's risky 'tamasha' to end on 26
November. What is clear is that Khan is the greatest threat Pakistan’s
establishment has ever seen and that this unstable year in Pakistani
politics has not yet reached its denouncement. Imran Khan’s Long March.
Western spokespeople today would have little
trouble making the case that Russia has invented a struggle for survival
where none exists, that its leaders seek to deceive their people, cover up
their own mistakes, and preserve their positions of power. Calling Out Putin’s Excuse.
Xi Jinping, the general secretary of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP), scored a total victory at the 20th Party
Congress. However, far from guaranteeing another decade of success as
China’s dominant leader, Xi’s triumph is likely to usher in a period of
political rivalry among his loyalists who are eager to seek his favor and
gain an edge in the inevitable struggle for succession. Will Xi Learn From History?
For the past
three decades, Latin America has mostly remained on the margins of major
geopolitical conflicts, from the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria to
China’s growing ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. But now, events
halfway around the world are roiling Latin America’s economies and, by
extension, politics more than ever since the end of the Cold War. Latin America 2022.
As productivity falls and Chinese growth
stagnates, it is unclear who, if anyone, will tell Xi the toughest truth of
all: that his obsession with security is undermining China by weakening the
economic foundations on which the country’s strength depends. China’s Economy.
The disagreement
on the cost of the concessions Ukraine might have to make to produce a deal
and on the level of Russia’s ideological commitment to the conquest of its
neighbor. Why Some Wars Don’t
End.
Granted, Beijing’s aspirations, like Moscow’s, may
be greater than what it can realistically accomplish. But Xi, like the man
he has described as his “best, most intimate friend,” Russian President
Vladimir Putin, does not seem to believe that his reach exceeds his grasp. Why Policymakers Around The World Should Take Note.
As Prince William and the Princess of Wales today take
to the stage in Boston for a glitzy ceremony featuring zeitgeisty figures
from Billie Eilish to David Attenborough, the heir to the throne risks
being watched less for evidence of his leadership in curtailing global
warming than for urgent proof of the Royal Family’s ability to remain
relevant in a multicultural Britain and a shape-shifting world. The
lightning resignation of William’s godmother, Lady Susan Hussey, over her
persistent questioning of the background of black British charity founder Ngozi
Fulani at a Buckingham Palace reception instantly cast a pall on Wednesday
over not only the Waleses’ American tour but also the nascent efforts of
the King and his eldest son to modernize and reshape the monarchy. Why The House Of Windsor Will Ultimately Fall.
If the Haitian leaders cannot bring themselves to
the negotiating table, 2023 will likely be another year marked by violence,
desperation, and chaos. Many Haitians vehemently oppose bringing in
foreign troops to solve Haitian problems. Politicians, opinion leaders, and
citizens on social media insist that past foreign military interventions,
whether led by U.S. Marines or UN peacekeepers, have only subjected the
country to the iniquities of colonial rule and left a host of unresolved
problems in their wake. A History Of
Making Bad Situatiuations Worse.
The Houthis in
Yemen changed their minds only after their presumed military edge had
eroded. As they advanced on Marib throughout 2021, the rebels also moved
into the Shebwa governorate in Yemen’s southeast. This move crossed a red
line for the UAE, which has deep ties to the region’s anti-Houthi militias,
which then rallied its proxies to push the Houthis out. (The UAE denies
playing a direct role.) The Houthis responded with escalating cross-border
missile and drone attacks on Saudi and UAE territory, prompting more
airstrikes from Riyadh on Houthi-controlled territory, which hit civilian
targets, drawing international condemnation. The resulting stalemate was
painful enough for both sides that Griffiths’s replacement, Swedish
diplomat Hans Grundberg, was able to bring them to the table. It was in
this context that, in April 2022, the war’s main parties agreed to a
two-month truce. What Needs To Happen Next.
An epochal tectonic shift. Russia’s war of
aggression against Ukraine has ended an era. New powers have emerged or
reemerged, including an economically strong and politically assertive
China. Countries and government models compete for power and influence in
this new multipolar world. The World Faces
A Zeitenwende.
A drone attack hits an oil storage tank at an airfield
in Russia’s Kursk region. No casualties were reported as the facility was
set on fire one day after Russia blamed Ukraine for two other drone
strikes. The Kursk airfield explosion is the third incident at Russian
bases this week.
Today, Germany
and the rest of the world woke up with the news about an ongoing operation
involving 3,000 police officers in raids, with initially 25 arrests
which took place in 11 of Germany’s 16 states and locations in Austria
and Italy because of a plot to overthrow the German State and
replace it with a new Emperor at the helm. After the large-scale raid
against so-called Reich citizens, the German security authorities expect
further suspects and searches due to plans for a coup. In interviews on
Wednesday evening, the Presidents of the Office for the Protection of the
Constitution, the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), and the Federal
Public Prosecutor were convinced of the seriousness of the coup plans. Germany Just Averted Its Own Jan. 6, And Maybe The
Fourth Reich.
In Russia, the call-up of hundreds of thousands of
men and the new laws giving the military control of domestic industries
have had far-reaching effects. The generals now have a decisive say in the
economy. They can also mobilize any number of employees in any corporation,
which makes them more potent than ever. Along with silencing military
critics and regaining control of the narrative, these steps have given the
Kremlin an effective way to close ranks. A
Re-Assessment.
Russia faced a strategic defeat with its decision
to invade Ukraine last February. It has shown its military weaker than many
had predicted before the war. It has been the author of its diplomatic
isolation, which it can reverse only by ending the war. It has hobbled its
economy and slowed its military modernization by incurring sanctions. It
has fostered a strong sense of national belonging in Ukraine and
dramatically strengthened the transatlantic alliance, of which Ukraine is
now a de facto member. Over time, Russia’s built-in weaknesses and the
West’s and Ukraine’s assets will affect. In 1954, Crimea Was Transferred From Russia To
Ukraine.
Russia: Indian policymakers may be tempted into
believing that China's decline ordains India's dizzy resurgence. But, in
the end, whether or not India turns into the next China is not merely a
question of global economic forces or geopolitics. It will require a
dramatic policy shift by New Delhi itself. We Address Why There Is No Inevitability In
China’s Decline To India’s Rise.
Nato chief warns against conflict spiraling into
Russia-Nato war. According to an interview released Friday, the head of
Nato has expressed worry that the fighting in Ukraine could spin out of
control and become a war between Russia and Nato. “If things go wrong, they
can go wrong,” Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said in remarks
to Norwegian broadcaster NRK. It is a terrible war in Ukraine. It is
also a war that can become a full-fledged war that spreads into a major
battle between Nato and Russia. We are working on that every day to avoid
that. Associated Press also reported that Stoltenberg said in the
interview that “there is no doubt that a full-fledged war is a
possibility.”Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, added that it
was essential to avoid a conflict “that involves more countries
in Europe and becomes a full-fledged war in Europe.”
Moscow has repeatedly accused Nato allies of
effectively becoming a party to the conflict by providing Ukraine with
weapons, training its troops, and feeding military intelligence to attack
Russian forces. In comments that reflected soaring tensions between
Russia and the west, President Vladimir Putin suggested Moscow might
think about using what he described as the US concept of a preemptive
strike. Speaking about a disarming strike, maybe it’s worth thinking about
adopting the ideas developed by our U.S. counterparts, their ideas of
ensuring their security.
Russia’s breakup
is unlikely. In the aftermath of Putin’s disastrous war, however, the
regime will face growing pressures to decentralize. The best outcome
would be for local self-government, inscribed in the Russian constitution
but scrapped by Putin, to become a reality. A Decentralized Entity Can Reform Itself
From The Inside Out.
The system will
require new investment as it adapts to the twenty-first century. Modernize
the international institutions that form the backbone of this system, such
as the multilateral development banks; finalize the international agreement
on a global minimum tax that more than 135 countries reached at the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last fall; and update
the international payments infrastructure to make it faster, cheaper, and
more inclusive. These actions will help ensure the international economic
system continues to drive global prosperity and that it lives up to the
values embedded in its creation. Remaining Robust Enough When Malign
Actors Are Denied Access.
China’s NBA anger mounts with canceled events and fan
boycotts. NBA’s China problem threatens billions in basketball investment
US-based professional league faces backlash, with core business interests
up against politics of support for Hong Kong. How it happened, and what are
the consequences? It Took Just Seven Words
That NBA-China’s Viewership Approaching Pre-Banned Levels.
When Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s federal president
and former foreign minister, received the Kissinger Prize in November
2022, he assessed his country’s (and his own) foreign policy failures.
Since the world has changed, he said, “we must cast off old ways of
thinking and old hopes,” including the idea that “economic exchange will
bring about political convergence.” In the future, Steinmeier declared,
Berlin must learn from the past and “reduce one-sided dependencies.” Germany’s Unlearned Lessons.
As we near the
end of 2022, IT professionals are looking back at one of the worst years on
record for incidents. Hence it’s imperative to look forward to a
better 2023 strategy. This includes authoritarian governments,
and security agencies that currently benefit from spyware will seek to
obstruct such regulation. In November 2022, a top British intelligence
official, Sir Jeremy Fleming, warned that the proliferating use of
mercenary spyware and hackers for hire by countries and malefactors would
increase the future threat to cybersecurity. Should mercenary spyware
continue to grow unchecked, the risks for democracy will become
acute. Tackling The 2023
Problem Of Cybersecurity.
When many democracies’ media outlets are consolidating
due to financial pressures, China’s most prominent state media
outlets, like the newswire Xinhua, are modernizing, professionalizing, and
expanding in an attempt to reach an international audience. Overseas,
Beijing also attempts to impact local media, civil society, and politics by
having Chinese firms or individuals with close links buy up local media
outlets, signing content-sharing deals with local media, expanding China’s
social media giants, and controlling the wireless and wired technology
through which information flows, How China
Manipulates The Media.
It is no secret that China intends to seize Taiwan
by 2027. On 10 Dec. 2022, an analyst at the Center for Advanced China
Research boldly asked to suppose the US would defeat a Chinese Invasion of
Taiwan. What Then? Providing evidence, we here debunk that Taiwan belongs
to Mainland China, including the Non-Existing South China Sea Islands And
the futility of China's National Myths. China will develop the ability
to seize Taiwan by 2027. The
Nowhere Road With An Answer To It.
Chinese President
Xi Jinping just returned from three days of back-to-back summits in Riyadh:
the first with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, the second with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the
third with a larger group of Arab governments. But the Biden
administration’s strategy appears to Saudis and other observers as an
attempt to wrest the power to set oil prices away from OPEC. Why Saudis
Don’t Want To Pivot To China.
The German Reichsbürger Plot has gripped the Nation
as we show our new investigation on hand. The accused belong to a terrorist
organization that has set itself the goal of overcoming the existing state
order in Germany and replacing it with its form of government. The Gripping Story Of How A Plot Would Take Over Germany.
The population of China is about 54 times larger
than North Korea's, and China’s GDP is almost a thousand times more
significant, and the scale of the problem comes into focus. The Meaning Of China’s Dangerous Decline.
Volodymyr Zelensky is to meet congressional
leaders in Washington today. And despite its acts of aggression and
substantial nuclear arsenal, Russia is not a peer competitor of China or
the United States. Putin’s overreach in Ukraine suggests he has not grasped
this critical point. A defeated Russia will make Russia a descending
power. We Have To Prepare
For Russia’s Defeat But Also Its Return.
|
Comment by Adam Tooze, author
of "Crashed: How; a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the
World" Tooze on the ‘Dramatic Reconceptualization’ of Europe How The War In Ukraine Will Remake The Continent:
Twice in the last
106 years, in 1917 and 1991, versions of Russia have broken apart. Twice,
versions of Russia have reconstituted themselves. If Russian power recedes,
the West should capitalize on that opportunity to shape a European
environment that protects NATO members, allies, and partners. A Russian
defeat would furnish many options and many temptations. To Recognize The Stakes.
Editorial: How Did President Zelensky Get To Washington
And Back: Reading like A Spynovel
This Is What Happened.
Little can be done to reverse the shift in the global
balance of power or ease Riyadh's pressure to cash in on oil. But the
United States and Saudi Arabia can bolster bilateral ties if each side
reconsiders how it views the other’s domestic politics. The Saudis must
jettison the self-defeating belief that one of the United States political
parties is against them and the other is for them. As for the US, with the
likely failure of the nuclear talks with Tehran, the chance of a
confrontation between the United States and Iran grows. How To Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.
There has been no time during the
past 35 years when all intelligence (meaning spy) agencies in every country
of the world today are focused on one issue: the potential war in Ukraine. The Inside World About Spy
Agencies Revealed.
India and China’s
latest border clash is not a one-off. The Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects
Beijing’s Confidence, And New Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.
India and China’s latest border clash is not a
one-off. The Skirmish in Arunachal Pradesh reflects Beijing’s
confidence and New Delhi’s diminished deterrence. Why It Is Of Importance.
Military analysts often use modeling to predict
specific outcomes in war, including winners and losers, casualties,
territorial gains or losses, and combat duration. But a potential
U.S.-China war over Taiwan, likely also involving some American allies, poses
analytical and policy challenges that make predicting outcomes especially
difficult. Can China Take Taiwan?
From old to new
Cold War. The Potsdam Conference, according to Hugh Lunghi (British
military interpreter and veteran of World War II), was bad-tempered’. The
alliance of personalities that held things together was dissolving.
Roosevelt would be out of office within days, replaced by Clement Attlee.
By the end of the Potsdam gathering, only Stalin would remain from the
wartime Big Three leaders, late in February 1946, George Kennan, the No. 2
at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, sent his momentous “long telegram” to the
State Department analyzing Stalin’s malign designs on Europe and sketching
a containment strategy. To Know
Stalin And What Followed.
As the EU tries to
finalize its hydrogen rules, Asian countries are moving fast to secure
deliveries, and the US is committing money to set up local supply chains.
Can the Middle East collaborate with both continents? The Act of
Declaration of Independence of Ukraine was adopted by the Supreme Soviet of
the Ukrainian SSR on 24 August 1991. The Act reestablished Ukraine's state
independence. And when then in addition, Ukraine 1994 gave up its nuclear
weapons in return for security “assurances” from Russia, the United States,
and the United Kingdom. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022
suddenly ignored all of this. As we have shown, of which Putin dismissed the actual history, it took the events in Ukraine for the West to realize that Putin’s
Russia wants a new empire. This did not stop local lawmakers in St.
Petersburg and Moscow from calling for Putin's resignation. The German Connection.
Last week, when we
were looking for the most explosive trends in the world, we first came up
with about fourteen, which included issues like the deadly conflict in
Ethiopia, the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, and many other
potential conflicts. But in the end, we tried to keep it simple and focus
on only three. But expand in great length on: The Russian Crisis.
To ensure you
know, our research has nothing to do with the poorly written and inaccurate
book Tracers in the Dark By Andy Greenberg, apparently written for
entertainment purposes. Or at least it has many factual errors where she
claims that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies cannot be traced, whereby
there is nothing further from the truth, as we will explain. We do not
incorporate anything that Tracers in the Dark book. Instead, we will, among
others, detail why people like Sam Bankman-Fried (and others who, in
their way, tried to do similar) are not innocent victims of what recently
has been tossed around with victims of the Federal Reserve's raising
interest rates. Instead, we detail what, in reality, are Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes.
Increasingly
today, Cryptocurrency has become a mainstream option for money laundering,
the funding of terrorism, and the war in Ukraine. After all, the
primary goal of cybercriminals who steal cryptocurrency, or accept it as
payment for illicit goods, is to obfuscate the source of their funds and
convert their cryptocurrency into cash so that it can be spent or kept in a
bank. Investigators could significantly damage cybercriminals’ ability to
convert cryptocurrency into cash by going after these money laundering
service providers, thereby reducing the incentives for cybercriminals to
use cryptocurrency in the first place. Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Two.
Crypto felt its
first chill of sanctions in 2021 when Virgil Griffith, an Ethereum developer,
arrested earlier for speaking at a North Korean blockchain conference,
pleaded guilty to helping the rogue regime evade sanctions. It became clear
that Cryptocurrency remains appealing to criminals, primarily due to its
pseudonymous nature and the ease and speed with which funds can be sent
anywhere in the world. However, using cryptocurrencies for illicit
activities constitutes only a tiny part of the overall cryptocurrency
economy. It is smaller than the number of illegal funds involved in traditional
finance. Our first reaction was to read the just-released book Tracers
in the Dark: The Global Hunt for the Crime Lords of Cryptocurrency by Andy
Greenberg, but written in a very simplistic manner where we soon could find
glaring errors w decided we had to do our own more straightforward research
with facts and graphics to explain what is not a simplistic but very
complex subject. Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes
Part Three.
Having been keen
observers of the Ukraine war two weeks ago when Russia started to mammas
troops two weeks before its invasion, we now have to ask if Moscow has
partly recovered from the military setbacks we reported and can Russia's
target of 300,000 additional troops have to do with this? The United
States could develop a diplomatic strategy to reduce maximalist thinking in
Ukraine and Russia if it wanted to. But to date, it has shown little
interest in using its leverage even to coax the two sides to the
negotiating table. Russia's Target Of
300,000 Additional Troops.
As mentioned in
Part One and Part Two, Before FTX's collapse, Bankman-Fried was ranked the
41st richest American in the Forbes 400 and the 60th richest person in the
world by The World's Billionaires. His net worth peaked at $26 billion. In
October 2022, he had an estimated net worth of $10.5 billion. By November
8, 2022, amid the bankruptcy of FTX, his net worth was estimated to have
dropped 94 percent in a day to $991.5 million, according to the Bloomberg
Billionaires Index, the most significant one-day drop in the index's history.
On November 11, 2022, the Bloomberg Billionaires Index considered
Bankman-Fried to have no material wealth. Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Four.
As in most years,
the largest hacks accounted for most of the funds stolen. Finally, the 2022
crypto market downturn began with the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried and the
Terra-Luna ecosystem and its associated stablecoin. Blockchain Analysis.
Following The European
Press Group and Russia Expert Olde Samorodni Predicting the war
will be over by late Summer, calls for a special tribunal are intended to
show Vladimir Putin that he will be held to account for his actions in Ukraine.
Prepare For Russia’s Collapse.
Washington and its
allies have appropriately focused on the immediate task of helping Ukraine
and avoiding escalation. But there is a pressing need to consider the
longer term and to develop policies towards Russia and Ukraine based on the
reality that victory will start in the Summer. Still, The War Will Likely Continue Until The End Of 2023.
Today, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen called on
Germany on Tuesday to help maintain "regional order" during a
meeting with senior German lawmakers visiting the island on a trip Beijing
condemned. Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, has been heartened
by support from Western democratic allies in the face of stepped-up Chinese
military threats, including war games staged by China near the island in
August. Today China mounts large-scale joint strike drills around
Taiwan, sending 28 warplanes and naval vessels to the island days after a
US Navy destroyer went through the Strait But the war would leave
China’s navy in shambles and tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers and
prisoners of war. What Made Taiwan
Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.
A lingering energy crisis and monetary tightening will
negatively impact economic activity worldwide, leading to heightened
social, political, and financial risk. What To Expect In 2023.
The Story of Why The Chinese Can Travel Again.
More than 70 US and Brazilian lawmakers condemn
the Trump-Bolsonaro alliance. Far-Right Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal
Representative Institutions.
Security forces operate as supporters of Brazil's
former President Jair Bolsonaro demonstrate against President Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva in Planalto Palace, Brazil, January 8:
On 8 January 2023,
following the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2022 Brazilian
general election, supporters of the previous president, Jair Bolsonaro,
attacked the Supreme Federal Court, the National Congress building, and the
Planalto Presidential Palace in the Three Powers Plaza in the capital,
Brasília. Senator Veneziano Vital do Rêgo, interim president of the Federal
Senate, confirmed that rioters had breached the Chamber of Deputies' Green
Hall and attempted to enter the Planalto Palace. Neither Lula nor Bolsonaro
was in Brasília at the time of the attack. Today Democratic lawmakers in
the US demanded Biden revoke Bolsonaro’s visa after the Brazil riot. Former
president entered the US after his election loss and is staying in Florida.
The Current Situation.
Putin has never
been shy about waging war, and outright criticism of the invasion is
inconceivable among the political elite. How
Putin Is About To Lose His War.
Downbeat global economic forecasts whether growth
declines or only stagnates in 2023, The
Long-Term Trend Is Concerning.
Editorial: Is Turkey a crucial or corrosive NATO ally? Erdogan’s Foot-Dragging On Sweden And Finland Is
Causing Headaches For Western Leaders.
A new report from the human rights website Gulagu
stated that Andrei Medvedev, a former senior commander in the Wagner
mercenary group, fled to Norway. Medvedev fled Russian territory and was
pursued by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). This follows
continued reports of the group’s violent actions in the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and the war crimes committed by the group and its leadership on the
battlefield under Yevgeny
Prigozhin.
According to the state-owned Global Times
newspaper, a confrontational Chinese carrier strike group, led by the
country’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, conducted live-fire
drills in the South China Sea. In a statement, the Chinese navy called them
"combat-oriented confrontational exercises." As illustrated
by the landmark AUKUS deal with the U.S. and the U.K. Also, Australia is
reorienting its military forces to more aggressively contest chokepoints on
the southern end of the first and second island chains and probe deep into the South China
Sea. A recent war game scenario run by the Washington-based Center
for Strategic and International Studies indicated that the US would lose
its aircraft carriers should they interfere in a possible conflict in the
Taiwan Straits.
Don’t Forget About
Water in 2023. This finite resource will have plenty of countries on
edge in the coming year. This Highlights A
Socio-Economic Challenge That The World Needs To Tackle Before It Gets
Worse.
The following is a project establishing why
Geopolitical Forecasting is possible, shown on hand by many case studies. Understanding The World By
Means Of A Geopolitical Approach.
|
Kyiv hasn’t been its usual self for weeks. For half
the day, the Ukrainian capital, known for its cafes, bustling nightlife,
and crowded cocktail dens even through a pandemic and more than eight
months of a full-scale Russian invasion, is plunged into darkness, mostly
disappearing from view except for millions of little flickers of
candlelight how The US Can Help.
With growing
tension between Beijing and Washington, China’s 20th Party Congress in
October unsettled many outside observers. During the proceedings, not only
did Chinese President Xi Jinping stack China’s all-important Politburo
Standing Committee with loyalists and secure a third term in office, but he
also painted his darkest picture of China’s external threats. Why XI Might Prefer Détente.
A
question is whether Biden wants to, or can, seize Beijing’s apparent
interest in a détente to pump the brakes on the relationship’s downward
spiral. The White House listed global issues like climate, debt
relief, health security, and food security as areas where the two leaders
"agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and
deepen constructive efforts." Biden’s maneuvering is also the
latest sign that an emerging goal of his foreign policy is to stress the differences
between Moscow and Beijing - China The
Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.
Recently
The Guardian newspaper wrote that Elon Musk’s wild ride at the helm of
Twitter could bring it down. At the same time, the New York Times wrote
that Elon Musk Has No Idea What He’s Doing on Twitter. Some people at
Twitter know how to fix everything, but they no longer work for the company
or have been told not to ship any new code. And the question haunting
engineers at the end of the day was not whether any new cracks in the
service would emerge but how many and when. At the same time, a major
scandal has erupted in China about Tesla cars. But as we shall see, China
is not the only country encountering this. Twitter
And Tesla.
Departure
of Tech Workers Weighs on Russian Economy President Vladimir Putin’s troop
mobilization for the Ukraine war has caused sales to drop and well-paid
employees to flee abroad. During the G20 finance talks in Bali,
finance chiefs looked for solutions to food and energy crises while
accusing Russian technocrats of exacerbating the problems. What Is Needed For The Russian Economy To Grow.
Yesterday
morning, many people woke up with fears of war spillover eased after Nato said
a missile in Poland was a Ukrainian stray. The blast in Poland shows how
easily Russia’s war could tip into a wider conflict with NATO. Comparing
the current situation with the Cuban Missile Crisis, the off-ramp in
1962 did not emerge out of U.S. statesmanship. It grew first from Russian
fear and then pragmatism. Why Putin
Gladly Tells You Is No Khrushchev.
|
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a wave of
concern about the global nuclear order. And Both Chinese President Xi and
US President Biden agree that nuclear war ‘should never be
fought. Such worries are understandable. We Investigate The Nonproliferation Conundrum.
The
past 24 hours have shown how delicate the situation could become on
Ukraine’s borders with Nato countries, including Poland,
Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, and Romania. If the conflict in Ukraine is
rewriting the history of central and eastern Europe, then so is the history
of the north Atlantic alliance. The
Polish Incident That is Changing It.
Putin
believes he has no choice but to continue bombing and attacking Ukraine.
And unlike many of Russia’s elites, Putin believes Ukraine is still doomed.
His present personal goal is tactical, stopping Kyiv’s attacks, holding the
line, and then waiting until the Ukrainian state collapses, which he
believes is just a matter of time. Divide
And Conquer.
A new
strategic era spurs a dire need among policymakers to ruthlessly prioritize
and identify which issues and regions NATO will ignore, try to mitigate, or
assign a small fraction of its considerable attention and resources.
Against its instincts and intentions, NATO has backed into simultaneous
contests against two significant powers that define their global interests
- explaining The NEW NATO Strategic
Concept.
The longer households, companies, and
governments fail to recognize and respond to the structural shifts in the
global economic and financial system, the harder it will be to mitigate the
risks and seize the opportunities associated with these changes. The Profound Economic And Financial Shift.
After
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 Feb., dormant veterans associations became the
lifeblood of the Ukrainian resistance inside occupied territory. But
the partisans did not merely consist of former soldiers. On one
occasion, when it needed to raise the level of a river significantly, it
hit a dam but could not check whether its attack had provided the desired
results. The Ukrainian Saboteurs
Behind Enemy Lines.
Instead
of looking for an off-ramp out of the war, Putin has escalated the
conflict, partially mobilizing Russian manpower and annexing four Ukrainian
oblasts while widening his attacks to include missile strikes on Ukraine’s
critical energy infrastructure. Putin And
Ukraine's Nuclear Reactors.
|
The importance and distinctiveness of the
evolution of Western European right-wing populism become particularly clear
when compared with comparable developments in the United States. The
election of Donald Trump in 2016 turbocharged these trends. How To Understand Extreme Right-Wing Parties.
President Xi
Jinping has pushed politics to the Leninist left, economics to the Marxist
left, and foreign policy to the nationalist right. But this same
ideological stance has also created dilemmas that the CCP will find
difficult to resolve, significantly as slowing economic growth complicates
the party’s long-standing social contract with the people. The World According to Xi.
It’s
no secret that central banks and governments worldwide are dealing with
rising inflation and economic uncertainty, which need to be addressed
head-on if they want to maintain internal stability. To do so, they are
considering measures outside the usual monetary toolkit that address
geopolitical events by stimulating national investment more creatively. Inflation And Economic Uncertainty.
Europe is facing
a generational energy crisis as it heads into winter. A shortfall of 150
billion cubic meters of gas, which Russia won’t deliver to Europe this year
because of its war in Ukraine, has left Europe scrambling to find
alternatives and contain the fallout. Why
This Could Last For Years.
Vladimir Putin gave a clue this week about the mastermind
behind Russia’s heaviest missile onslaught since its full-scale invasion of
Ukraine in the early days. In a television address lauding the operation
and warning of more to come, the Russian president said Monday’s strikes on
cities across Ukraine, launched in retaliation for the attack on the Kerch
bridge linking Russia to the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, were
ordered: “at the defense ministry’s suggestion.” The remark pointed to
Sergei Surovikin, a hardline general named commander of Moscow’s invasion
forces two days earlier. The Battle
Problem Facing The New Command.
The
West believes Kyiv's fight is and wants Ukraine to succeed. But it is
still being determined whether Ukraine is strong enough to retake all its
territory. Many Western leaders still believe the Russian military is too
large to defeat. This thinking has led the members of the pro-Ukrainian
coalition to define only their interim strategic military goals. How Ukraine Can Take Back All Its Territory.
On Oct. 16, the
Chinese Communist Party will begin its 20th National Congress, the
highest-level and most crucial assembly of China’s senior political and
military leadership. Large And In
Charge.
Taipei
and Beijing understand that its objective is not an independent Taiwan but
peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The Biden administration could
continue to press Beijing to engage in direct discussions with Taipei’s
democratically elected leadership and to seek a long-term resolution of
cross-strait differences that meets the approval of the people of
Taiwan. Can A War Over Taiwan Still
Be Avoided?
Chinese
authorities have strictly censored discussion of a rare protest in Beijing on
Thursday that saw large banners unfurled on a flyover calling for boycotts
and the removal of Xi Jinping, just days before China’s most important
event of its five-year political cycle:
Although the West
is primarily focused on its response to Russia’s war against Ukraine and
the war’s impacts on energy supplies and inflation, the United States and
Europe should not miss the chance to quietly but energetically exploit
Russia’s colossal strategic mistake to work toward a better status quo, and
avoid a worse one, in the places where Russia’s now-receding power
projection has proven so nefarious and calcifying in the past. What Happens To Russia’s Periphery.
As Nigeria's
oil reserves dwindle and its population expands, stability will
increasingly depend on something much more complex: broad-based growth that
improves the lives of average Nigerians from Past To Next Fifty Years.
The United States
and Europe could gain leverage in a post-Putin power struggle. Published
here in English and Russian: Our Source
In The Kremlin Speaks Up.
Iranian
protesters have taken to chanting, “They tell lies when they say it’s America.
Our enemy is right here.” That should be of interest to policymakers.
Although the translation doesn’t do the chant justice, the message is
clear: Iranians see the clerical regime as their real enemy. The End Of The Islamic Republic As We Know It
Part One.
Tech companies
have demonstrated how businesses can support military and security
operations and their independent power and willingness to act. Now is the
time to reach out to tech company leaders and initiate substantive and
continuing conversations about these companies’ abilities and plans. Game-Changer For Current And Future Conflicts.
If Putin is no
longer a rational actor, some fear that Ukraine and its Western supporters
may have no choice but to fight on. What, after all, is the alternative?
The glue that holds together any agreement to end the war requires that
both sides honor their commitments over the long term. How does one
negotiate for peace with a state that has proved itself irrational? Putin's Atomic Gamble.
The Kremlin has
telegraphed that it wanted to slow Ukraine’s battlefield advances with
strikes targeting infrastructure and civilians. Russian troops’ cruel
logic, experts said, is that if they can’t beat Ukrainian soldiers on the
battlefield, they will try to harm their wives and children at home. And
Putin also has to play for time, spreading out Ukrainian defenses, with a
purported 300,000 mobilized Russian reserves not set to be ready for weeks.
We Analyse What The Result Of The
Bombing Will Be.
On 29 September,
hackers stole sensitive Mexican files, including previously undisclosed
information that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was taken to
hospital by air ambulance in January with a heart problem; with the
2024 presidential elections not far off, he believes that his popularity
with an energized political base matters more than maintaining a trilateral
trade accord. Democracy Or Authoritarian
Populism?
Nobody
expected surprises at the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP). Events followed the pre-established script until Hu Jintao was
whiskered out. We Analyze The Reasons Why.
Since late 2021, China’s various economic issues,
exacerbated by frequent and often abrupt pandemic lockdowns, have
trapped GDP growth below the official target of 5.5 percent. Setting
aside hopeful notes from President Xi Jinping and other top officials at
the National Congress, China’s Q3 data is still expected to paint a dire
picture of the future.
After three
decades in which prices grew slowly across the world’s advanced economies,
the United Kingdom, the United States, and the eurozone suddenly contended
with nearly double-digit inflation. Prices across many emerging markets and
developing economies have risen even faster, with inflation exceeding 80
percent in Turkey and nearly 100 percent in Argentina. The Direction Of The World Economy.
Despite
China moving towards greater authoritarianism, the Chinese secret
service uses double agents to influence politicians, diplomats, officials,
academics, and organizations to shape the perception that foreign powers
have of China to one of a country striving to move towards democratic
values. Last night top officials from the U.S. Justice Department unveiled
a slate of indictments against 13 Chinese nationals accused of spying on
behalf of Beijing. Chinese
Spies Part One.
Just three days
before the February 24 invasion, Putin orchestrated a nationally televised
meeting of Russia’s Security Council in which each member voiced a strong
agreement with the need to take action in Ukraine. And in his announcement
of Russian missile strikes after the bombing of the Kerch Strait Bridge,
Putin noted that the Defense Ministry proposed this move following planning
by Russia’s General Staff. Yet such efforts to share the political risk in
these decisions can go only so far since it was Putin’s obsession with
Ukraine and its inextricable bonds with Russia that set off the march to
war. The War Might Last Another Year And
What That Means.
|
Truss’s exit had seemed inevitable almost from the
moment she took office. The continual disruptions in British
leadership have rocked the United Kingdom’s standing worldwide. Can Sunak Save Britain?
Iran is now
involved in a major war on the European continent for the first time.
Iranian military advisors, most likely members of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps, are on the ground in occupied Ukraine, and possibly Belarus,
to help Russia rain down deadly Iranian kamikaze drones on Ukrainian cities
and civilian infrastructure. Putin Puts
Faith In The Poor Man's Weapon.
Chinese
operations worldwide eschew official police and judicial cooperation,
violate international law, and may violate third countries' territorial
integrity by setting up a parallel policing mechanism using illegal
methods. However, the CCP’s repressive capacity consists of several layers
- the Chinese Police Service
Stations.
Zheng's MSS’s
China Reform Forum could lure in foreign friends from the highest levels of
politics and government. While its promises of ‘peaceful rise’ proved to be
a lie. The Way To The White
House.
Russia had two chances
at democracy in the 20th century: first in 1917, in the months before the
Bolshevik Revolution began, and again in 1991, when the Soviet Union
collapsed. The challenges facing a post-Putin Russia appear even more
daunting than those the country faced after the collapse of communism. The Way Forward For Russia.
Russia
under Putin will never be a stakeholder in European security. The Kremlin
has shown that it is far more interested in imperialist revanchism than
strategic stability. The Outcome Of
Significant Wars Ultimately Comes Down To Attrition.
The backlash
Despite the world’s past mistakes, the MSS now faces the toughest backlash
in its history. As we have seen from the indictments we posted on 26
October that came on the heels of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th
National Congress, cemented Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s rule over the
country for the coming years, numerous governments are in the process of
fundamentally reconfiguring their foreign policies as the charade of
China’s peaceful rise crumbles. The
Circumstances That Allow Chinese Spy Operations To Thrive.
Germany and the
European Union are examining whether to classify Iran's Revolutionary Guard
as a terrorist organization, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said
Sunday. But even without such assistance, the videos and photographs
that have made it through Iran’s media blackout demonstrate how women can
act as powerful agents of change, even, perhaps, particularly, under
patriarchal authoritarian politics. The End Of The Islamic Republic As We Know It
Part Two.
Earlier, a video
showed the sabotage of military helicopters deep inside Russia. Satellite
imagery shows several damaged helicopters at the base. And
when Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on
the battlefield, the discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup,
whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny
by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither of these is currently
very likely. We Assess The Possibility
Of Regime Collapse.
Shinzo Abe
introduced legislation recognizing that Japan would exercise the right of
collective self-defense and could fight alongside the United States if the
need arose. Although Abe was partly motivated by ideological opposition to
Japan's constitutional constraints, he fundamentally sought to ensure that
the United States could depend more on Japan in a crisis so that Japan
could still rely on the United States. The Consensus
From Canberra To Tokyo.
Strange greeting
on a state visit, China President Xi refuses to shake hands with Olaf
Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany. Xi’s first big public move after
his effective coronation after the National People’s Congress was to travel
to Yan’an, arguably the most critical site in the CCP’s history.
Yan’an is where all doubts disappeared about Mao’s utter preeminence among
the Chinese communists. For some experts, this confirmed that Xi was the
most powerful leader China had seen since Mao. China’s Past And Xi’s Future.
India claims to
be the largest democracy in the world. Its ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP), claims to be the largest political organization in the world
(with a membership base even more significant than that of the Chinese
Communist Party). When Indian citizens received their first COVID-19
vaccines, they were given vaccination certificates with Modi’s
photograph. In February 2021, Modi joined the ranks of Stalin, Hitler,
Mao, Muammar al-Qaddafi, and Saddam Hussain in having a sports stadium
named after him while he was alive (and in office). The cricket stadium in
Ahmedabad, previously named after the great nationalist stalwart
Vallabhbhai Patel, was henceforth called the Narendra Modi Stadium. A Critical Look At Narendra Modi's India
Today.
From a relatively
undeveloped place without any notable history of Buddhism, intelligence
officers built Hainan Island into a leading platform for Buddhist influence
efforts. The Guan yin colossus is a testament to the agency’s
creativity, resourcefulness, and long-term planning. Buddhism is a window
into how the MSS seeks to use religion to influence and infiltrate
countries with different political environments to the United States. Reactions To China’s Spy Operations.
Finding a way out
of the Ukraine war and its escalating human costs has become increasingly
urgent. The conflict continues to inflict enormous suffering on the
Ukrainian people and economic damage on much of the world by disrupting the
energy and food markets. What To Do
About Putin.
We
have a new article that explains why and how Vladimir Putin is beholden to
Stalin's legacy. Isolated, Paranoid, and even more like the Soviet
dictator, But although he is approaching the age of Stalin at his death,
Putin appears healthier and seems to have more time than Stalin did in the
early 1950s. Putin And Stalin.
Chinese President
Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third term as general secretary will drag the CCP
back to the pathologies of the Mao era and simultaneously push it toward a
future of low growth, heightened geopolitical tension, and profound
uncertainty. The question for all is whether his plans will prevail or
generate their political antibodies, both at home and abroad, that begin to
resist Xi’s vision for China and the world actively. But Xi Jinping is
probably already anticipating that response- and preparing whatever
countermeasures may be warranted. What To
Expect From Xi's Third Term.
Ukraine
pushes Russia out of Kherson, the most significant liberation yet. But
even though Ukrainian troops are still raring to advance in the frigid
temperatures, intelligence officials remain wary of the situation in
Kherson, which is believed to be heavily mined by departing Russian troops,
a tactic that dates back to the Second World War and one that has been used
heavily in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine to sow death and
dismemberment for Ukrainians returning. The Ukrainian military official
said troops would have to wait to seize the city until it was relatively
clear of mines and booby traps. The
Situation Ukraine Is Facing This Winter.
Russia’s
interests have long intersected with Turkey’s. This presents as many
opportunities for conflict as it does for cooperation. Turkey and Russia
see each other as neighbors along the Black Sea, and both are interested in
maintaining good relations while keeping a certain distance. Turkey And Russia: Friends For Now.
Roughly ten times
the size of India and three times the size of China, it is home to nearly
18 percent of the world’s population and roughly 30 percent of its mineral
resources. initially looking at why poverty, Africa remains the poorest
continent. Yet, As destructive and painful as it was, Africa’s troubled
history of colonialism and Cold War meddling cannot explain all its current
woes. We Detail A Way Up For Africa.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President
Joe Biden sat down for a rare face-to-face meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on
November 14, both leaders are confronting acute challenges at home.
A critical question is whether Xi's plans will prevail and begin to
actively resist Xi’s vision for China and the world. What To Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.
The Secretive PWE
Political Warfare Executive.
|
Regardless of
their human rights record, engaging with the Taliban will not encourage
stability over the long run. So far, the engagement with the Afghan Taliban
government has proved futile. Why
Pressure Is The Best Way.
World Leaders
Convene Amid Crisis at the UNGA. No doubt under discussion will Putin order
partial Russian mobilization with Russia to call up 300,000 reservists.
Reuters reports that European Union member Latvia (and no doubt others will
follow), has said it will not offer refuge to any Russians fleeing Moscow’s
mobilization of troops. The UNGA Meeting.
NATO chief calls
Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation. More than 1,300
people have been arrested at demonstrations across Russia against President
Vladimir Putin's announcement of a partial mobilization of civilians to
fight in Ukraine. Putin Threatens Nuclear
Response.
If Putin were to
go before the war's end, the world should use his departure as a chance to
resume negotiations for Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine. A post-Putin
Russia may still be autocratic, but it does not have to continue its
reckless overseas adventures. Putin’s
Eventual Replacement.
Vladimir Putin’s
“partial mobilization” of citizens for his war in Ukraine has already set
in motion sweeping changes for many Russians. But as we shall see in the
following article, the mobilization will not turn this around, and the use
of nuclear weapons would make a bad situation catastrophic. Why Mobilization Can’t Save Putin’s War.
The latest
developments have placed the Ukrainian conflict at a crossroads, with a
severe risk of escalation on the one hand and an opportunity for a
diplomatic climbdown on the other. It is not just about Moscow and
Kyiv but the entire Russia-West relationship. Climbing The Escalation Ladder.
British
ambassador summoned over coverage by London-based media - Norwegian envoy
called in over 'interventionist' speaker - Teachers' union calls for
strikes Monday and Wednesday - Iranian TV says 41 people killed in
more than a week of unrest. Iran’s
Anti-Veil Protests Have Already Succeeded.
In the context of
restrained civil liberties and curtailed political and, increasingly,
personal freedoms, defending the party’s version of China’s history, the
only version of history it can safely be proud of, is one way to guarantee
your safety - or to advance your career. The Revelations Of Document Number Nine.
Few might have
heard of realist international relations theorists. Now two new books tell
all about it. In the discipline of International Relations, realism is a
school of thought that emphasizes the competitive and conflictual side of
international relations. Matthew Specter
And Jonathan Kirshner’s New Books.
We all have heard
about practicing saving the world; yesterday, NASA crashed a spacecraft
into an asteroid. But one of the most significant scars on our planet is
hidden beneath the Yucatán Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico. Over 90 miles
in diameter, the buried crater was created when a massive asteroid struck
the planet 66 million years ago and brought a calamitous end to the
dinosaurs' reign. As detailed in our article below, we would not have made
it if Homo sapiens had been alive when the comet struck. And Then It Got Cold.
The Soviet Union
lacked the cohesion and the will to keep itself alive. Putin is not going
to make that mistake. He will turn instead to the examples of Tsars
Nicholas I and Alexander III and to the Soviet leaders Joseph Stalin,
Nikita Khrushchev, and Leonid Brezhnev, all of whom were able to suppress
dissent at home, keep their subjects in line, and pursue hard-line policies
without letting the dissent crystallize into meaningful movements. The End Of Putin’s Bargain With The People.
Many Iranians
regard the notion of inherited rule as another betrayal of the revolution.
Should Ayatollah Ali Khamenei die while Iran is convulsed by a
protest movement on this scale, the challenge to the clerical system could
become existential. Iran's
Question Of Legitimacy.
At least 200,000 Russians have left Russia since
Putin's draft began:
Despite the many
challenges, some Chinese writers have not stopped trying to record the
past. They use strategic circumlocutions to refer to purged figures, such
as calling Zhao “a leading comrade in the central government at that time.”
They push boundaries and test the limits of acceptable discourse, even
though the limits are firm. The
Forbidden History.
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There is little
sign that peace talks are possible (especially after Russia’s staged
referendums in the east) or that there is any way for the war to end with
one side claiming victory. This horrifying conflict in Europe could
continue even when Putin’s human and psychological resources have run
out. A Fear Greater Than Putin.
Time is running out
for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, on Friday, Putin declared
Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are part of Russia
forever. Why Today It Becomes More
likely Putin Will Lose This War.
The current
financial panic in the UK is vast because it affects the government bond
market. This can become self-reinforcing because as the currency falls, the
bonds become less attractive to hold, and so on. Have Americans, As Is Claimed, Been Conned?
The US and its
allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine and sink its
Black Sea fleet if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in
the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David
Petraeus warned on Sunday. He told ABC News: “Just to give you a
hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort
that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and
identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in
the Black Sea.”
The CCP aims to
revise global and regional security governance to align more closely with
its regime's security interests and use Chinese foreign policy to secure
its hold on power at home. One should not underestimate the risks of this
new Chinese approach to foreign policy. China's
Global Security Initiative.
Too much of
China’s investment is directed, by necessity, to projects that create
economic activity (and debt) but do not create real economic
value. Chinese growth will slow sharply, and how it does will have
profound consequences for the country, the CCP, and the global economy. China's Growth In Peril.
The pivotal
moment will arrive when the only option Putin sees available to him is the
nuclear one. It will also be a decisive moment for the Russian elites who
still do not dare to countenance this worst-case scenario, which many today
avoid thinking about. Ukraine Is A
Poison Pill For Putin.
Among The Uprooted
The 20th Party Congress
may place Xi in a more secure position to pursue his favored policy agenda,
but it will not make COVID-19 magically go away. Without a deliberate
change, China may soon be contending with a policy whose consequences may
be as far-reaching, for Beijing and the Chinese people, as the pandemic
itself. China's COVID-19 Politics To
The Test.
Wars are historical
hinges. And misbegotten wars can be fatal as culmination points of more
general national decline. This Is
Particularly True For Empires.
The key bridge
linking Crimea to Russia hit by explosion. At least part of the 19km Kerch Strait
Bridge collapsed into the sea, imperiling the primary supply route for
Russian troops fighting in the south of Ukraine:
As we have seen
earlier, Hitler actively pursued an influential and largely overlooked
backdoor foreign policy. In Britain, as we have seen, this included
the Anglo-German Fellowship and the Cliveden Set, which
became seditious with Right Club’s plans and the conspiracy
by Vaughan-Henry, both groups planning to stage a British
coup d’état. No official explanation is available for the decision to
spare its leaders since his MI5 file – identified in other documents by the
serial number PF 42909 and which ran to three volumes in the Security
Service registry – has never been released. Our research started
with intelligence files considered so damaging that they were
initially classified for one hundred years until 2044 and only recently
published under the Freedom of Information Act. Hitler's Aristocrats Part Five.
Contrary to the
conventional history of a country united in opposition to Hitler,
right-wing British MPs, Peers, and senior figures in the military
clandestinely worked – individually and collectively – to hasten a German
victory and to supplant the elected British Government with a pro-Nazi
puppet regime which if up to Hitler would be a re-instated King Edward
VIII. Despite the continuing suppression of a substantial number of
files, those papers which have been de-classified and released to the National
Archives plainly show that throughout World War Two, senior and influential
figures in the British establishment not only supported Nazi Germany but
took active – and illegal – steps to hasten a German victory; and, further,
that there is compelling evidence that they were protected from the
consequences of their actions because of their privileged status in
society. Hitler's Aristocrats Part
Six.
|
Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine came when global agriculture and food supply chains were already
fragile. The countries most immediately affected are those that meet two
conditions: Rising Food Prices Will Shake the Middle East and North
Africa. They are heavily dependent on imports of grains and oilseeds,
and they have as their leading suppliers Russia and Ukraine. Mediterranean
countries in North Africa and the Middle East are first in the line of fire
under these circumstances. With no sign of improvement in the short
term, mass unrest is nearly inevitable. Bad
Timing Of Global Agriculture And Food Supply Chains.
We are not used
to seeing ourselves as one of history’s first generations; we tend to focus
on what we have inherited from the past, not what we could bequeath to the
future. This is a mistake. To tackle the task before us, we must reflect on
where we stand in humanity’s full lineage. We, in the present day,
recklessly gamble, not just with our lives and our children’s lives but
with the very existence of all who are yet to come. Let Us Be The Last Generation To Do So.
Below is an image
of the Partition Museum in Amritsar. Within hours the celebrations
of 75 years of Independence will kick in. When the 1947 partition
created two newly-independent states - India and Pakistan - and triggered
perhaps the biggest movement of people in history, outside war and famine.
About 12 million people became refugees. Between half a million and a
million people were killed in religious violence. A New Look At The History Of Partition.
Some of China’s
maritime disputes span centuries and started with the Champa Sea
or Sea of Cham, a maritime kingdom that flourished before the sixteenth
century. Since then, territorial disputes in the South China Sea have
involved conflicting island and maritime claims in the region by several
sovereign states, namely Brunei, the People's Republic of China (PRC),
Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and
Vietnam. Whose China Sea Is It?
Vladimir Putin
said today that Western countries were seeking to extend a “Nato-like
system” into the Asia-Pacific region. Delivering the welcome address at the
Moscow international security conference, Putin said that the United States
was trying to “drag out” the conflict in Ukraine. He added that US House of
Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s
Visit To Taiwan earlier this month had been “a thoroughly
planned provocation.” Whereby The Truth About
Taiwan Is.
Chinese President
Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden are scheduled to meet in
mid-November at a conference in Indonesia or Thailand. China is nearer to
an economic crisis than Russia and is thus unwilling to risk war with the
United States. It will speak, if not settle. Russia’s economic and military
situation is murky in the long run. China
Needs To Reach An Understanding And Russia Does Not.
Russia, Ukraine,
and the West are in a terrible situation with no apparent way out. One can
only hope that leaders on both sides will manage the war in ways that avoid
catastrophic escalation. There Is A Risk Of
Serious Harm.
The United States
must do much more to invest in its example’s power and ensure that steps
taken to counter China do not undermine that example by falling into the
trap of trying to out-China. Protective or punitive actions, whether
military, economic, or diplomatic, should be assessed based on whether they
counter China, how they affect the broader system, and whether they reflect
fidelity to U.S. principles. The United States
Does Not Need To Beat China.
Five days ago,
India’s prime minister’s annual Independence Day speech reflected how
far political discourse has fallen in New Delhi. PM Modi hereby
sported a Tricolour-themed turban for Independence Day, imbibing the ‘Har
Ghar Tiranga’ spirit.
If we look back, one
notices that, unlike prior revolutions, India’s split from the British
Empire came about through a political movement committed to nonviolence.
The Indian National Congress, led by Mahatma Gandhi, organized
peaceful demonstrations on an unprecedented scale. Why I Killed Gandhi.
For years to come,
the United States is more likely to face a confident, capable China than an
insecure, reckless one. Washington will not emerge victorious from this
contest because Beijing will step out of the race, as Moscow did at the end
of the Cold War. Is A Major War To Come?
The current
tensions over Taiwan exacerbated by President Xi’s continued alignment with
Putin make the situation difficult. But as great-power diplomacy returns to
a more even keel, Washington can remind Beijing that it needs the United
States and Western partners to achieve its own economic goals. What Is Achievable In East Asia?
With prices and
unemployment rising, sources say Kremlin officials fear Russians Are In For A Rude Awakening This Fall.
In reasserting
Russia’s imperial position by
seeking to reconquer Ukraine, Putin is reversing one of the most
outstanding achievements of his greatest hero. During his reign, Peter the
Great opened a window to the West by traveling to Europe, inviting
Europeans to come to Russia and help develop its economy, and adopting and
adapting European artisans’ skills. Peter
Took Russia Into The Future. Putin Pushing It Back To
The Past.
Judge orders
unsealing of the redacted affidavit in Donald Trump's search by noon today
in the US. It probably contains key information about the
investigation into classified documents kept at former president Donald
Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and private resort after he left office.
Assessment Of How The Russia-Ukraine
War Is Progressing.
From Eurasian to
Neo-Eurasianism. While Aleksandr Dugin and his daughter Dugina represented
an obscure movement that could barely muster a couple of dozen people to
its rallies, Putin’s propaganda machine has turned Dugina - and vengeance
for her death - into a cause. Hence Dugina became what Putin himself once
called a “sacred sacrifice.” Her corpse now serves as a national symbol of
one’s highest patriotic duty - and of the Ukrainians’ supposed perfidy. Naturally, There Can Be No Excuse, Only Ruthless
Punishment.
The forces
driving fifth-column politics are powerful and will not subside until political
polarization and income likely to happen by social media abate - none
likely to happen soon. In an age of uncertainty and fragmentation, the
fifth column will no longer be confined to the dark corners of the
nationalist imagination. They Will Be
Front And Center In Domestic And Global Politics.
While Russia
might decide whether it wants to continue to live in angry isolation.
Washington can remind Moscow that other options are available. Until that
day, the US might contain the worst Russian behavior. Wait For The Tide To Turn.
China has reached
a point of no return in its battle to contain what could be the most
significant property crash the world has ever seen, experts believe,
creating a perilous moment for the country’s Communist leadership and the
global economy. Point Of No
Return.
A dangerous path
would be to get sucked into a race for Artificial Intelligence dominance,
extending competitive relations further. Another would be to try to make
the feedback problems of authoritarianism worse. Both risk catastrophe and
possible war. Far safer, then, for all governments to recognize AI’s shared
risks and work together to reduce them. Weaponized
Artificial Intelligence.
For the UK,
fracturing the globalized world into newly powerful nation-states will
create friction. Yet new forms of cooperation can strengthen
democracies by driving them to build new networks with competition and
values at their core that can generate the resilience the West needs. The UK Can Be Leading By Supporting.
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The US-based foreignpolicy.com
wondered why Putin dodged the draft. Mentioning that SitRep has heard
from numerous U.S. and Western officials who say they are puzzled by
Putin’s reluctance to call for mass conscription at this point in the war.
We follow up by looking at sanctions and if this means
that Moscow is struggling to sustain its war in Ukraine. Why Is There Little Hope For A Quick Rebound?
While
at Yalta in 1945, Churchill pressed for free elections and
democratic governments in Eastern and Central Europe,
whereby Roosevelt wanted Soviet support in the U.S. Pacific War
against Japan, with Stalin demanding to have power over Poland and other E.
European countries, leading to the Soviet power having a large but because
of NATO next a diminishing buffer zone and currently is used by Putin as an
excuse to destroy Ukraine.
Sir Anthony
Rumbold, whose father was ambassador to Germany from 1928 to 1933, tried to
alert the British government about the rise of groups like The British
Union of Fascists that claimed to have some 50,000 members in 1934. This
while the undercurrents of British Fascism were more widespread and
nefarious, infiltrated by Hitler at the highest echelons of British
society. Hitler actively pursued an effective and largely overlooked
backdoor foreign policy with a less traditional spin. Hitler's Aristocrats Part One.
We next will also
see how contrary to the conventional history of a country united in
opposition to Hitler, right-wing British MPs, Peers, and senior figures in
the military clandestinely worked, individually and collectively, to hasten
a German victory and to supplant the elected British Government with a
pro-Nazi puppet regime which if up to Hitler would be a re-instated King
Edward VIII. Hitler's Aristocrats
Part Two.
History reminds
African countries to approach Ukraine’s conflict cautiously. The dominant
African position, given the significant uncertainties about the war and its
outcome, has been to demand peace and urge diplomacy - and, whenever
possible, to avoid having to take sides in a conflict that seems unlikely
to offer much to Africa, mainly if it turns the continent into a new
theater of proxy war. Africa’s
Ukraine Dilemma.
A chasm between global
challenges and the machinery meant to contend with them. Navigating a
decade that promises to be as demanding and dangerous as this one, which
will present old-fashioned geopolitical risks alongside growing global
challenges, calls for a foreign policy that avoids the extremes of wanting
to transform the world or ignoring it, working alone or with everyone. Policy For A World In Crisis.
Within the CCP
elite, many resent Xi’s disruption of the traditional power distribution.
China’s leader is facing internal dissent and an intense, widespread
backlash. What to date is our most extensive article about present day
China. Xi Jinping And Present-Day China.
Russian forces
controlling Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have killed two
staff at the facility and detained and abused dozens of others, the head of
Ukraine's nuclear energy agency told AFP today. But there is more in our
most detailed and well-researched article about the context of what is
going on with Ukraine. As detailed, the world might get an olive branch,
but only if the Ukrainians can fight back to the sea. Ukraine 2022.
Ukraine’s energy
crisis differs dramatically from its European counterparts. In Europe, the
problem is related to exorbitantly high prices. But in Ukraine, the crisis
is shaped primarily by the battlefield, where energy infrastructure has
been a major site of the fighting.
Our article presents
an overview of how Queen Elizabeth needed a new way to sustain the royal
family’s central role in the British state. Independence movements were the
natural outcome of this. Whereby also, King Charles III faces challenges as
old colonial links go. The Limits Of
Monarchy.
Ukraine’s rapid advances
are ‘creating fissures’ for Russian forces, so Chechen leader Ramzan
Kadyrov posted an 11-minute-long voice message to the Telegram messaging
app on Saturday, where he conceded the campaign was not going to plan.
First of all, we explain the background, and why it came to this war, and
then next, we can ask the question. Is Ukraine Going To Win This War?
A more stable
order could rest on negotiation, not rules Washington should encourage its
allies to avoid unnecessary quarrels with China. How To Build A Better Order.
The United States
and other powerful outsiders should not forget their roles in prolonging
Afghanistan’s suffering during the past four decades. If they do, they may
very well repeat past mistakes. The
Forces That Could Threaten The Taliban’s Control.
The U.S.
military’s most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready
until the 2030s. Many argue that China is expected to start a war within
the next five years that time Is running out. The
Future War Between China And The US.
Yesterday, Russia
bombed a dam in Zelenski's hometown, causing severe flooding. Also,
yesterday the German Chancellor demonstrated the seriousness of the
situation, who, after a recent telephone conversation, reported that
there is no indication that Putin has changed his stance about wanting to
slow down the war. Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen is seen arriving in
Kyiv today:
EU chief Ursula
von der Leyen said that war-torn Ukraine would have Europe's support for
"as long as it takes" during yesterday's to Kyiv for
talks on closer integration with the single market bloc. Why Support For Ukraine Will Withstand Russian
Pressure.
Amid a battlefield
rout and increasing pressure from Russian nationalists and influential war
bloggers, Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself under increasing
pressure to escalate the conflict with an ever-more-threadbare military as
the world waits to see how the country’s increasingly erratic president
will respond to finding himself in the corner. Yesterday, we presented analyses of
why support for Ukraine will withstand Russian pressure today. We
explain what Putin’s next move in Ukraine will be. Mobilize, Retreat, Or Something In Between?
Europe's growth
prospects for the remainder of the year are not good. In Q3, an energy
crunch combined with high temperatures and drought disrupted power
generation and drove electricity costs, hindering industrial activity. As
temperatures fall later in the year, demand for natural gas will rise,
potentially pushing prices even higher. The European Union and national
governments are discussing countermeasures, such as mandatory cuts to
electricity consumption and price caps for natural gas, but it's not clear
they will succeed.
Russia on Tuesday
told the UN that they could end up using nuclear weapons in response to
“direct aggression” by western countries. Speaking last week, US president
Joe Biden said any use by Putin of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in
Ukraine, for example, by exploding a low-yield, tactical nuclear warhead –
would “change the face of war.” Nuclear
Strike Aimed At Shock?
Through one of
our investigations, we discovered a trump card of documents considered so
harmful that they were classified until '2044' and only recently opened up
under the Freedom of Information Act. It concerns three coup d'etats in the
UK who wanted to establish a Nazi regime. We then decided to extend a more
significant coherence from back to front and published parts one and two of
six on September 5th. followed by parts three and four today. - To
understand the larger context next need to look at the Anglo-German
Fellowship and the Cliveden Set, leading us to the Rudolf Hess affair. The
idea of a group of superbly well-connected, pro-German appeasers meeting
regularly at Waldorf and Nancy Astor’s Thames-side mansion is pictured
below. Hitler's Aristocrats Part
Three.
As we have seen
in parts one and two, Hitler actively pursued an influential and largely
overlooked backdoor foreign policy approaching the royal families of
Britain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Romania, and Germany.
They were all looking to seize a more visible political role in their
respective countries. In Britain, this included the Anglo-German Fellowship
and the Cliveden Set, whereby it became seditious with Right Club’s plans
for a coup d’état and as we will see underneath the coup d'etat conspiracy
by Dr. Leigh Francis Howell Wynne Sackville de Montmorency Vaughan-Henry. Hitler's Aristocrats Part Four.
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Today, Putin emboldened Xi; China violated Taiwanese airspace with
30 warplanes. Recently President Joe Biden said the US would intervene
militarily to defend Taiwan if it came under attack from China. Why Should Taiwan Be Seen As A Part Of China?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in an unenviable
position. His country has the resources to inflict damage on Ukraine in
perpetuity. But because the first phase of the war has been so costly for
Russia and because Ukraine’s military is mounting such stiff resistance,
Russia faces serious difficulty achieving anything meaningful on the
battlefield without committing much more manpower than it currently has
available. If Putin decides
to mobilize, he will be altering the deal he’s made with the public and
potentially destabilizing his regime. What
Will The Consequences Of Mobilization Be?
In late March, Ukrainian diplomats introduced an innovative
framework for a deal that could provide a pathway out of the war. And
crucially, the proposal, which was leaked to the press following talks in
Istanbul on March 29, has already received at least preliminary support
from both sides. At the center of the proposed deal is a trade: Kyiv would
renounce its ambitions to join NATO and embrace permanent neutrality in
return for receiving security guarantees from both its Western partners and
Russia. Belgian Lessons.
After months of buildup and numerous denials that any invasion was
planned, Vladimir Putin announced on 24 February that he had launched a
“special military operation” to “demilitarise and denazify”
Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin delivers speeches and discovers that he is
speechless, or nearly so. This may have been the initial setback before the
military setbacks that afflicted his army. It is not a psychological
failure, then. It is a philosophical failure. A suitable language of
analysis eludes him; therefore, lucidity eludes him. The fact is that
most of today’s discussions over how to help Ukraine win on the
battlefield, coerce Kyiv into concessions, or allow Russian President
Vladimir Putin to save face have little in common with reality. How To Decrease The Risks Of Escalation.
One hundred days after Vladimir Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine, the
war has reshaped the world few could have predicted. The map of Europe
is being redrawn, as countries move to wean themselves from Russian oil and
gas. Although the Russian invasion has been slowed by Ukrainian defenses,
the reality is that impunity remains on the march 100 days into the war.
It’s time to make sure it is in retreat over the next 100. What The G7 Foreign Ministers Will Do.
Putin is counting on the world’s indifference, on the one hand
blaming the West for its supposed threat to Russian security and condemning
the United States for imposing sanctions while on the other hand
reaffirming its principled support for the territorial integrity of
sovereign states and calling for a negotiated resolution of what it calls
“the Ukraine crisis.” Why Does
China Neither Endorse Nor Condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s War?
Virtually overnight, the war in Ukraine has brought the post-Cold
War era to a close, not just by ending Europe’s long era of peace, but by
bringing basic questions of energy access back to the fore. A new era,
marked by geopolitically driven energy insecurity and resource competition,
is moving climate concerns down on the list of priorities. If there is a
silver lining in any of this, it’s that a shift of focus back to energy
security imperatives might not be the worst thing for the climate. The End Of Climate Policy.
Ukrainian troops are drained and exhausted. Russia is trying to
create a fait accompli and make reality conform to its imperial ambitions
through “Passportization” - the quick provision of Russian passports to
Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied areas - and the forced introduction
of Russian administrative structures in Ukrainian territory. Russian Army Would Have To Collapse.
Baltic leaders propose that NATO expand its footprint in
the region at the upcoming NATO summit in Madrid in late June. If enacted,
Baltic officials say, the upgrade in NATO forces could act as a more
effective form of “deterrence by denial” against Putin preparing any plans
to seize Baltic territory. After having seen U.S. intelligence on the
impending Russian invasion borne out, Baltic nations are hoping that
laggards like France and Germany will sign onto their plan. Russia’s Early Failures Doesn’t Make It Less Dangerous.
Yesterday the speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament made a vibrant
plea for his country to be named a candidate for European Union membership,
a move that would bring the war-torn nation closer to the EU without
guaranteeing its admittance. What Candidate
Status Would Mean.
President Vladimir Putin on Thursday (pictured
above) compared himself to Peter the Great, drawing parallels
with the tsar who waged war on Sweden and said the campaign in Ukraine
stems from Russia's 'fundamental values while drawing parallels
between Peter's founding of St. Petersburg and his own government's
annexation of territory saying: We will undoubtedly succeed in solving
the tasks that we face. Putin says Russia aims to acquire new
parts. Why It
Is Too Soon For A Lasting Diplomatic Settlement.
When Vladimir Putin denies the reality of the
Ukrainian state, he speaks the empire's familiar language. For five hundred
years, European conquerors called the societies that they encountered
"tribes," treating them as incapable of governing themselves.
Several lessons have become apparent in the two decades that have seen the
rise of Putin's world. Isolating Russia and refusing to deal with it,
however appealing that may appear to some, is not an option. On the other
hand, pursuing "resets" despite Moscow's Suez moment to achieve
qualitative improvements in ties to Putin's Russia is a fruitless quest for
the future Why
Putin's Ukraine War Is An Inflection Point For The West.
According to the Russian constitution, this is Putin’s last term in
office, and he is obliged to step down in 2024, but will he? And what
drives Putin? Several lessons have become clear in the two decades
that have seen the rise of Putin. Putin's
Challenge To The West.
The evening picture underneath was taken on Russian National
day 12 June 2022. Whereby as we will see in the following article the
reality is that Russia can’t avoid trying to reassert power, and the West
can’t avoid trying to resist. But in the end, Russia can’t win. Russia was
and remains a country of constant crises and constant wars, while the
primary motivation to think about the future stemmed from the economic
crises of 1998 and 2008–2009. Putin’s strategy has enabled Russia to
reappear on the world stage in unanticipated ways that will continue to
challenge the world. Whereby It is also important to remember that the
Kremlin does not speak for all Russian citizens.The Putin Challenge.
Putin has repeatedly accused Ukraine of occupying ancestral Russian
lands and blamed the early Bolsheviks for bungling the border between the
Russian and Ukrainian Soviet republics. Mutual hostility will not
subside because there are conflicting geopolitical interests, and both
sides are raising the stakes. The Why Of
The Road To War.
Analysts today fear that Ukraine could be losing the upper hand in
the Donbas, leaving it vulnerable to being wholly seized by Russia. As
reported widely the last bridge to the city of Sievierodonetsk fell as
street battles raged, and some Western officials questioned Ukraine’s
ability to keep resisting the Russian onslaught and if we are looking at a
frozen conflict that could last a long time. Today US Secretary of
Defense Lloyd Austin is poised to lead a working group of nearly 50
countries to discuss the crisis. Ukraine receives only 10% of the
weapons that it requested from the West, says Defence Min. Why Kyiv Needs An Immediate Solution.
Pictured below, taking weeks to organize, the leaders of
Germany, France, and Italy, arrived in Kyiv today.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops holed up alongside civilians in a
Sievierodonetsk chemical plant ignored a Russian ultimatum to lay down their
arms, Why Ukraine
Reached A Pivotal Moment.
As we will show that the Russia sanctions don’t have the
desired effect shouldn’t be a surprise, it is quite unrealistic to expect
that economic sanctions against a great power-and that would be Russia
today-will substantially deter a policy course that the leadership has set
upon. Why Do Russian
Sanctions Persist As A Tool Of Diplomacy?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the end of "the
era of the unipolar world" in a combative speech that lambasted
Western countries at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on
Friday. Meanwhile, the UK will not yield to 'Ukraine fatigue, says PM on
return from Kyiv. The latter referred to potential fatigue which is
what our today's article is about. Why Putin's
Path To Negotiate Lies Through Battleground Defeats.
Taiwan was never involved with the Chinese tributary system;
neither were the Chinese to any significant degree living in Taiwan until
the Dutch imported them as laborers. But if the intractable issues could
spark a hot war between the United States and China, Taiwan is at the top
of the list. Geopolitical
Consequences Of Taiwan War.
Weaponed with a map showing the proposed Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline, Russian artillery doctrines are frozen in time but part of a
tradition emphasizing great firepower and technological innovation that is
centuries-old and informed by experience in Russia’s recent wars. The Russian Army Is Facing A Long, Grim Fight.
The Glastonbury festival may be little known by attendees
like Greta Thunberg or today's Diana Ross; for many true
believers it involves the Celtic revival and the H.Grail. The Hidden History Of The Glastonbury Festival.
This week's Nato summit in Madrid comes at a critical time in the
alliance's 73-year history. On the eve of the summit in Madrid, Nato
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced what he called "a
fundamental shift in the alliance's deterrence and defense",
strengthening its defenses on its eastern borders and raising its rapid
response force to more than 300,000 troops. A Global Cold War.
Western allies vowed on Tuesday (28 June) to
boost Nato’s defenses and back Ukraine to the end as Moscow
demanded Kyiv’s surrender. And clearly, Russia’s assault on Ukraine has
shaken the Western public out of their complacency. A Need To Build A Better World Order.
Pictured below the EU flag is been brought to the plenary hall of Ukraine's
parliament. To permanently stay adjacent to the Ukraine flag in front.
According to Putin, the war could last long. Following
the NATO meeting on June 30, they would stick with Ukraine as long as
it takes. The Key To Victory In
Ukraine.
Evidenced by the
Russian book market already since 2015 prepared Russians for a full-scale
war against Ukraine, NATO, and the West, and promoted Stalinism and nazism,
and how this was ignored by the West.
The invasion of
Ukraine has not only accelerated that country’s departure from Russia’s
sphere of influence, it also seems to have other post-Soviet countries
warily eyeing the exit. This Is Not A
Victory.
Putin is
overconfident. He has surrounded himself with yes men, and that’s one
problem when it comes to convincing him the cost for Russia is too high.
The other problem is that he views his soldiers as just another massive
horde of serfs that can be sacrificed. Major losses don’t deter him, not
yet, anyway. In order to be deterred, he needs to have some empathy for his
own people. He Has None.
The road to a
cease-fire in Ukraine is full of pitfalls. There are Ukraine’s
Implausible theories of victory and the fantasy of Russian defeat. The
Case For Diplomacy.
European Union
leaders have expressed interest in investing in Libyan energy
infrastructure to reduce dependence on Russian gas. However, Wagner’s
presence positions the Kremlin as a spoiler in these future calculations. Why Libya Could Be Putin’s, Trump Card.
Putin’s persistent
implicit threats of nuclear escalation are designed to leverage Western
fears of the war in Ukraine. Such worries have damaged, delaying the
delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine. Putin is not facing the
threat of being cornered in Ukraine. The domestic cohorts Putin faces
in this war Putin is not facing the threat of being cornered in
Ukraine. Western Fears Of Putin.
Underneath a
Ukrainian grain field, pierced by thousands of Russian artillery shells.
Russian war on Ukraine is an attempt to erase the whole nation.
|
Since proposals
for a no-fly zone failed, the desire to do more for Ukraine has struggled
to crystallize around a prudent and realistic plan. To mitigate risks,
NATO should start small by focusing on expertise more than numbers. Russia
will be loath to start an unwinnable war with NATO over a few hundred more
volunteers fighting for Ukraine - even if organized more purposefully by
NATO governments. Explaining How Far
NATO Can Go.
Having initially
had the same faith as Eastern European countries, the Soviet Red Army
stayed on Austrian soil until 1955. But in contrast to Eastern
European countries, the Red Army withdrew, and Austria regained its
independence—but on one condition imposed by the Kremlin: that the country
remains strictly neutral. Can
Austria Stay Neutral?
Today, both Russian
and Western scholars, each in their own way (although an exception could be
made about the prevention of grain supply from Ukraine to Germany and
Austria-Hungary), see a replay of the current Ukraine/Russian war, with
what happened with the British and Russian interplay during the 1917-18
period. Revisiting The
Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part One.
While in the
West, the cold war is seen as having started shortly after the Second
World War, this is not the case in Russia. For example, those who want
to join intelligence agencies like the SVR and GRU early on in their
training are thought the betrayal of the West (and hence the cold
war) started in 1917. Revisiting The
Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Two.
On 20 July, Olena
Zelenskyy mother of two children, in a rare emotional but very well versed
appeal, addressed the US Congress:
In Ukraine,
Washington and its allies have openly provided the Ukrainian military with
heavy weapons, military training outside Ukraine, and intelligence sharing
to identify targets. Russia, for its part, has not targeted weapons convoys
headed into Ukraine while they are still on NATO territory. Nor has Russia
disrupted the steady flow of U.S. and allied political leaders into Kyiv,
all of whom must travel through a country at war. This kind of restraint
would have been unthinkable in World War II but was typical of the Cold
War. What If The War In Ukraine Spins
Out Of Control?
During Biden’s
visit, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman explained that his agreement
with the U.S. president to produce more oil was contingent on market
conditions and agreement by OPEC+ members. In doing so, the crown prince
implied that ties to the United States do not trump his relationship with
Russia. Nevertheless, Vladimir Putin’s trip to the Middle East Shows
weakness, not strength. Whose Middle East?
The head of MI6
(British spy agency) envisaged a new configuration of Russian intelligence under
British guidance to better interact with the Allies. Conveniently the
‘Anglo-French Convention’established both the presence and the principle
behind the use of unofficial agents. As such, the British Cabinet decided
to dispatch Robert Bruce Lockhart to Petrograd. Whereby the soviets, in
turn, appointed Maxim Litvinov the provisional plenipotentiary in the
UK. Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart
Plot Part Three.
As
Russia plays hardball, we are staring down a worrisome energy future. For
months, sky-high natural gas and oil prices have wreaked havoc worldwide.
Keeping the lights on and the electricity going in parts of the world that
are lower income and don’t have stable electricity grids, to begin with. What Next With The World Energy Situation.
In 1918, it
seemed like a good idea to invade Russia, defeat the Red Army, stage a coup
in Moscow, and assassinate party boss Vladimir Ilych Lenin. An
Allied-friendly dictator would then be installed to get Russia back into
the World War against the Central powers to back up the coup; allied
military forces invaded Murmansk and Archangel in North Russia, just below
the Arctic Circle, and seized their port and railroad facilities. The local
soviets in those cities feared invasion from Germans in neighboring Finland
and welcomed the Allied landings. The cities’ rail lines would have allowed
the Allied invaders to push southward to Petrograd and Moscow. Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Four.
The world’s
agricultural and food systems face a perfect storm. We need to address
the larger-scale, longer-term challenges that leave the world increasingly
vulnerable to food crises precipitated by a wide range of shocks - Time For New Trade Agreements.
Ukrainian
forces launch a counteroffensive in Kherson and, most important can target
bridges leading into Kherson:
If Kyiv were to
cede significant portions of territory to Russia, things would get only
more dysfunctional. For the west, moving the Russian border closer to
Eastern Europe would not end the war; it would only create the pretext for
the next. The closer Russia is to the western Ukrainian border, the more it
must be assumed that Russia would choose to move farther still. True or
not, it must be considered. The
Ukraine/Russia War.
The persistent
inability of states and markets to resolve concerns about labor, equity,
environmental degradation, and the corporate abuse of power. With calls for
"deglobalization" advancing, the arrangement could encourage a
new, more sustainable model of globalization, one that doesn't sacrifice
the common good on the altar of the market. Fighting Climate Change Through Trade.
Since the war in
Ukraine began, Putin’s rapidly growing security state seems closer to its
Stalinist predecessor. The militarization of the Federal Security
Service (FSB), previously the KGB, its recruitment camps, and increasingly
open and brutal tactics suggest that Putin is looking more closely at
the People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs (NKVD). A totalitarian
state forged this agency in wartime. The Kremlin is priming the country for
the prolonged war. Russias Fifth
Service.
Aleksandr
Viktorovich Ionov (who officials say was working
for what previously was called the KGB, now the Federal Security
Service FSB) was charged over accusations that he orchestrated a yearslong effort
to puppeteer political groups in Florida, Georgia, and California to sow
discord in the US spread pro-Russia propaganda and meddling in American
elections.
There was talk
that Russia is opening the Black Sea for Ukrainian ships and, in exchange,
restrictions on Russian grain exports are being lifted, yet the agreement
won’t last long.
When the Chinese
Communist Party meets, Xi will be coronated as the “People’s Leader” - a title
held only by Mao Zedong and his successor, Hua Guofeng. A strengthened Xi
is not going to be more moderate. He will have less to prove to his
domestic audience. But he will have all the power and the opportunity he
needs to pursue his “China Dream.” Xi Unleased.
The
following article is about US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy
Pelosi, who recently went to Ukraine, met with Zelenski, and is now going
to Taiwan. China, however, is protesting the visit and today is holding
live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait with live
ammunition. President Biden took a strong stance stating the USA would
intervene with the military to defend Taiwan against China's dramatically
increasing military activity. Whereby he changed his course with the
Biden administration working behind the scenes to convince Pelosi of
traveling to Taiwan to not insult China. What
Is Happening Here?
The Ukrainian
military has conceded that Russian forces have been able to make small
gains near the Donetsk towns of Soledar and Vershyna in eastern Ukraine.
Thus war appears static, but it can change at any moment. When battles
become static, changing the shape of the playing field becomes essential.
The Americans and Russians are engaged in flanking maneuvers that could
change the shape of the battlefield. This
Will Put One Side At A Disadvantage.
The invasion of Ukraine
caught many analysts of Russia off guard. Russian President Vladimir Putin
had long been thought of as rough, tough, and brutal - but also calculating
and cautious. The wild and reckless Ukrainian adventure seemed out of
character. But Putin’s personal history reveals that his decision to
go to war is entirely in character - and that he will likely continue it
indefinitely. Convicted For The
Usurpation Of Power.
The
world is witnessing its first economic war of the modern era. The war
in Ukraine, spiraling inflation, and the climate emergency are affecting
food security. The rules are undefined, and the global economy is
complex. The Global Effects Going Forward.
So far as can be
seen on the following map, in one day in the South, Ukraine has taken
more territory than Russia took in the first five weeks of the Battle of
Donbas:
The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of
unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will
shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory
could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and
the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may
mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian
Empire. Putin’s Entire Ukraine Invasion
Hinges On The Coming Battle Of Kherson.
As the old order
disintegrates and the new one struggles to be born, the advantage lies with
states that clearly understand the balance of forces and conceive of a
future cooperative order that serves the common good. Nor is the
rapidly shifting balance of power likely to provide the basis for a stable
order for some time. Instead, the authorities will probably muddle along
from crisis to crisis as their dissatisfaction with the international
system and with one another grows, in the form of motion without movement. Nobody Wants The Current World Order.
Taiwan is a central point in the first island
chain near China:
U.S. House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan sparked outrage in China,
which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle
military exercises. The two critical questions are why Pelosi went to the
island first and why Beijing cared enough to deploy its fleet. China Could Invade Taiwan.
The
Kremlin has prepared to confront the West and its socio-economic model for
decades. Yet the need to recruit foreign troops indicates a failure of
Russian commanders, a weakness in training and motivating troops, and
logistical problems. Europe is a great power if it sticks together
militarily and economically. It is doing that now, but old tensions will
emerge as fear of Russia dissipates. China is still a great power, albeit
with an untested military and a troubled economy. When The Economic Recovery Comes.
On
February 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin delivered a 56-minute televised national
address where he contested Ukrainian statehood and argued that the
government in Kyiv owes its territory today to the supposed generosity of
the Bolsheviks, notably Vladimir Lenin. Historian Victoria Smolkin
assesses Putin’s claim that modern-day Ukraine is a ‘gift’ from the
Bolsheviks. Fantasy Is Not History.
In November, the global population is expected to
reach 8 billion before climbing to 9.7 billion in 2050. India will also
soon surpass China as the most populous country. Global population growth,
however, is slowing. Two-thirds of the population shows lifetime fertility
below the 2.1 mark per woman needed to support population growth. That
said, longer life spans also contribute to global population growth. There
are roughly 771 million people over 65, triple the number in 1980. This
figure is expected to grow in the years ahead, particularly in East Asia,
Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America.
The Rajapaksas practically owned Sri Lanka:
And then happened this:
China won Sri
Lanka’s earlier trust because of its willingness to lend money to countries
shunned by the international community for their poor human rights records.
Indeed, their relationship strengthened after allegations emerged in Sri
Lanka of state-sponsored human rights abuses. China’s Motivations.
How Russia is
plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine. The group
has been repeatedly accused of war crimes and human rights
abuses. Despite its global reach, much of the group's inner workings have
remained a secret to the outside world - Putin's
Private Army.
The following map
shows how human actions are affecting outbreak risks, sometimes in
surprising places, which could be a valuable tool in preventing the next
pandemic.
Managing Soviet
and later Russian threats did not have to come at the expense of engagement
with the republics. Washington could have pur Russia’s objectives at the
same time, adapting to the Soviet Union’s decline while also hedging
against future Russian irredentism by supporting self-determination in the
emerging post-Soviet states. Russia’s
Security Concerns And Allay Its Anxieties.
Tokyo has recently begun to focus on its military
capabilities
We simply do not know
whether China will attack Taiwan in this decade. But it is a
reasonable presumption that Beijing is much more likely to strike if it
concludes it would succeed. Significant factors indicate that it may judge
this decade to be the most propitious one. Facing
A Window Of Vulnerability Over Taiwan.
|
Grand Duke Kirill Vladimirovich, the eldest son of Alexander III's
next-youngest brother, Grand Duke Vladimir Alexandrovich, controversially
assumed the role of head of the Imperial Family in 1924. In an attempt to
counter Kirill’s claim, on July 23, 1922, the makeshift Assembly of the
Land was hastily convened in the Priyamursk region near Vladivostok by
General Mikhail Diterikhs of the White Army, at which Kirill’s uncle, Grand
Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich, was nominated, in his absence, as emperor. Who Is The Tsar Of Russia.
Human history reveals that geographical characteristics and
population diversity, formed partly during the migration of Homo sapiens
from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, are predominantly the deepest
factors behind global inequalities, while cultural and institutional
adaptation has often dictated the speed at which development progressed in
societies across the globe. In some regions, growth-enhancing geography and
diversity led to the rapid adaptation of cultural traits and institutional
features to their surroundings, and the acceleration of technological
progress. Centuries later, this process triggered an outburst of demand for
human capital, a sudden drop in birth rates, and thus an earlier transition
to the modern era of growth. The New Out
Of Africa Theory.
It is virtually impossible to understand the history of humankind
without grasping the contributions of these forces to the progression of
the human species – the evolution of the human brain, the two monumental
revolutions (the Neolithic and the Industrial), the growth of human capital
investment and the Demographic Transition, the major trends that made us
the dominant species on Planet Earth. These undercurrents provide a
unifying conceptual framework, a clear axis from which to understand this
journey. The Mystery Of Inequality.
Already before Putin was delivering today's May 9 Victory Day
speech, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence predicted that the
only way Russia’s war in Ukraine ends is with Russian President Vladimir
Putin dead, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s top military spy, said Monday.
Leaving him away to retreat is one of the strategies, but it is almost
unrealistic, Budanov said when asked if Putin could end this war alive.
Whereby Putin’s speech can safely say to be revisionist history that
took the form of disinformation. Putin's
Victory Speech.
At the inner layer, deeper factors rooted in geography and the
distant past often underpinned the emergence of growth-enhancing cultural
characteristics and political institutions in some regions of the world and
growth-hindering ones in others. Deep-Rooted
Factors.
Despite the long shadow of history, the fate of nations has not been
carved in stone. As the great cogs that have governed the journey of
humanity continue to turn, measures that enhance future orientation,
education, and innovation, along with gender equality, pluralism, and
respect for difference, hold the key to universal prosperity. Trade, Colonialism And Uneven Development.
At the heart of the promise made in the UN Charter was the idea
that countries must work together to avoid war. If armed conflict did break
out, they would send forces to try to keep the peace, and the world would
ensure abuses were prosecuted - both for the sake of justice and to deter
future crimes. There have also been significant signs of change at the
UN recently. The General Assembly - the body of all 193 UN members -
condemned the invasion and voted to remove Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.
China voted against the move, and India abstained - between them, they
represent a third of the world's population. And while the decision doesn't
affect what the Security Council does or does not do, the moral signal from
more than two-thirds of UN members was apparent. Ukraine And The Search For Justice.
The Middle East played
a major role in World War I, and, conversely, the war was important in
shaping the development of the modern Middle East. The French and the
British sent armies and agents into the Middle East, to foment revolts in
the Arabian Peninsula and to seize Iraq, Syria, and Palestine. In 1916,
French and British diplomats secretly reached the Sykes-Picot agreement,
carving up the Middle East into spheres of influence for their respective
countries. That agreement was superseded by another which established a
mandate system of French and British control, sanctioned by the new League
of Nations. The Making Of The Middle
East.
The Arab Revolt
of 1916–1918 also saw the development of guerrilla tactics and strategies
of modern desert warfare. And the political intrigues surrounding the
revolt and its aftermath were as significant as the fighting, for Great
Britain and France’s myopic attempts at nation-building planted the seeds
of the troubles that plague the region to this day: wars, authoritarian
governments, coups, the rise of militant Islam, and the enduring conflict
between Israelis and Palestinians. The
Making Of The Modern Middle East Part 2.
In 1916 the British Army sent Lawrence to meet the Amir Feisal
whose tribesmen had been attempting to besiege Medina. Feisal's men were
keen fighters but hopelessly ill-disciplined. Lawrence and his Arab
followers captured Aqaba from the rear after defeating a whole Turkish
battalion. As the revolt became more successful, more and more Arab
tribesmen joined it. The
‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Dating back to between the 3rd century BCE and the 1st century CE,
the Dead Sea Scrolls are considered one of the most important finds in the
history of archaeology, and have great historical, religious, and
linguistic significance because they include the oldest surviving
manuscripts of entire books later included in the biblical canons, along
with deuterocanonical and extra-biblical manuscripts which preserve
evidence of the diversity of religious thought in late Second Temple
Judaism, Researching
Christianity.
Moscow’s desired strategic outcome is a weakened United States
immersed in political dysfunction, torn by racial, religious, ethnic, and
other social tensions, struggling economically, bogged down in external
conflicts, and alienated from its allies. A distracted America, forced to
deal with domestic and international problems, is far less likely to
interfere with Putin’s strategic ambitions. Russia Tests "World's Most
Powerful" Missile. Moscow's Suez Moment.
On 28 February 2022, Medscape again asked, "Acupuncture for
Pain Control Just an Elaborate Placebo?" It is said that Chairman Mao
himself preferred Western medicine. His physician quotes him, saying, “Even
though I believe we should promote Chinese medicine, I do not believe in
it. I do not take Chinese medicine.” Enter current President Xi Jinping.
Today, the dangers of utopianism are denied. It is believed there
is nothing to stop humans from remaking themselves and the world in which
they live. This fantasy lies behind many aspects of contemporary culture,
and in these circumstances, it is dystopian. How do we know when a project
is unrealizable? How
Utopianism Becomes Real-Life Part Two.
China doesn’t want Russia to win because a victorious Russia would
likely become too assertive to handle, while a defeated, weakened, isolated
Russia would have no choice but become a docile strategic ally of China,
granting access to the natural resources of Siberia in the process. Given
that China seems to have been aware of the Russian plans to invade Ukraine
from the very beginning and encouraged Russia to do so, only to roll back
its support once the war started, this all suggests that China may have been
betting on a Russian defeat all along. Major Case Study: The Mongolia Factor.
During the Russian Civil War General, Wrangel joined the Whites -
but only after the Bolsheviks had sought to kill his family. He
was arguably the most successful of all the White commanders and it is
suggested that might he have prevailed over the Bolsheviks had he been
installed earlier. Unable to kill the Black Baron (as had been tried)
in an accident, Stalin turned to the secret Soviet tools of Laboratory One.
The Murder Of General Wrangel An Equally
Famous Ballerina.
It is clear that Russia has developed a deep understanding of how Americans
think, what motivates them, their interests, and how open and democratic
societies work. This enables Russia to pursue its exceptionally
well-defined targeting strategy against the United States. Hence Russian
intelligence and security services are extraordinarily well prepared to
counter U.S. interests and advance Russia’s. Exposure
To Russian Intelligence Services.
In 2013, Putin initiated steps to move Russia in the direction of a
wartime footing. He would not be caught asleep at the wheel ignoring his
General Staff’s forecasts of a war with Russia’s archrival, the United
States, the way Stalin did with Hitler. A “New”
War, Twenty Years In The Making.
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The concern is that Russia is possibly preparing to expand
war because Moscow has concluded that Washington seeks its
destruction. And while the following will have no remediate consequences it
also might contain a warning Russian plane violated Sweden's airspace as
the NATO application looms. Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer claims that
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already moved nuclear
weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles into the field. The Atomic Option.
The Russians can’t avoid trying to reassert power, and the United
States can’t avoid trying to resist. But in the end, Russia can’t win. Its
deep internal problems, massively declining population, and poor
infrastructure ultimately make Russia’s long-term survival prospects bleak.
Geostrategy Of Russia.
Ukrainians assert their nation’s existence through simple acts of
solidarity. They are not resisting Russia because of some absence or some
difference, because they are not Russians or opposed to Russians. What is
to be resisted is elemental: the threat of national extinction represented
by Russian colonialism, a war of destruction expressly designed to resolve
“the Ukrainian question.” Ukrainians know that there is not a question to
be answered, only a life to be lived and, if need be, to be risked. They resist
because they know who they are. Revealing Putin’s
Inconsistencies While Striving For A New Empire.
Russia has been preparing to confront the West since the early
2000s. And now, the world is witnessing its first economic world war of the
modern era as sanctions pile on Russia in response to its attack on
Ukraine. And while the besieged Ukrainian government continues to request
that the West set up a no-fly zone over the country. While many
leaders fear that this action may lead to a broader conflict,
inaction will ultimately allow Putin to use nuclear blackmail against both
Ukraine and the West. Meanwhile, Russia says, similar to
Ukraine, Poland is 'next in line for denazification.' Meanwhile, Russians Are Fleeing Their Country
In Doves.
Beyond Europe,
the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being felt most keenly 5,000
miles away, on the island of Taiwan. Many Taiwanese worries that they might
be the next to suffer an invasion by a more powerful neighbor. Those fears
are not unreasonable. At the same time, Ukraine and Taiwan differ in many
ways; as relatively young democracies living alongside larger authoritarian
neighbors with long-standing designs on their territory, the two face
strikingly similar strategic predicaments. From Ukraine To Taiwan.
When Yeltsin told Putin
that he would make him acting president on the last day of the year, Putin
a lieutenant colonel in the FSB, addressed officials of Russia’s Federal
Security Service (FSB) that “The task of infiltrating the highest level of
government is accomplished”, Since then, Putin has been dubbed "the
man without a face." Today, however, he is the "only face"
sitting atop an anonymous security bureaucracy. Yet as we show Putin's
clandestine war in Ukraine was hidden even from his secret agents. For
example, leaders of the FSB branch responsible for providing intelligence
to the Kremlin about the political situation in Ukraine did not believe
that an invasion would take place. Infiltrating
The Highest Level Of Government.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has created a strategic predicament
for his country’s response to the Russian war on Ukraine.
US intelligence chiefs expressed optimism that China would make no
moves in the short term. Director of US intelligence Avril Haines surmised
that the Ukraine war might give China “less confidence” in a military
outcome should Beijing invade Taiwan. And If Russia doesn’t declare
war and mobilize, the stalemate will continue for a while. On the other
hand, if Russia intensifies its ground assault, That would bring thousands
more soldiers and a whole lot more ammunition to the fight. Xi Jinping's Strategic Predicament And The View From
Washington.
By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of
people far from the battlefield and on a scale that even he may
regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by
covid-19, climate change, and an energy shock. Initial attempts are
made to put advanced anti-ship missiles in the hands of Ukrainian fighters
to help defeat Russia’s naval blockade. But several issues are keeping
Ukraine from receiving the rockets. The
War About Food Supplies.
On 20 May, during a major St Petersburg concert, thousands
of Russians chant 'fuck the war'.
Russian military incompetence has been startling; planners
shouldn’t leap to conclusions. Russian forces could not capture Kyiv, but
they have been able to seize tens of thousands of square miles of territory
along Ukraine’s eastern border - at least for now. To prepare
NATO to contend with this threat over the long term requires a frank
admission of Russia’s strategic realities in the alliance’s new strategic
concept, adopted on 28, 29, and 30 June 2022. Yet while NATO
leaders have condemned Russian aggression, the rhetoric falls short of
formally declaring Russia as a long-term strategic threat to the alliance. How Serious A Treat Is Putin.
Given the increasing alignment between Russia and China, the United
States cannot rule out that Russia would offer significant assistance to
China during a conflict over Taiwan, including arms, energy, food, and
intelligence. The unfolding war in Ukraine offers important lessons
for China, Taiwan, and the United States. Whichever side adapts more deftly
will do much to determine whether deterrence holds or a conflict that would
fundamentally alter the world arrives. The Wargame.
In a surprise visit to Kyiv on 22 May, Polish
President Andrzej Duda said that only Ukraine should decide on
any terms it pursues peace with Moscow. He called for the complete removal
of all Russian troops in Ukraine, breaking with European leaders who have
suggested the partly-occupied country should accede to some of its
attacker’s demands. Understanding
Putin's Worldview Part One.
As an Orthodox theocracy, Russia initially considered her growing
size and strength to serve a divine purpose. A critical juncture took place
in 2020 when Russian constitutional changes extended Putin’s term in office
until 2026. This introduced a modified version of Orthodoxy-Autocracy-Nationality,
drawn up in 1833 under Emperor Nicholas I. manner. Understanding Putin's Worldview Part Two.
Since the annexation of Crimea and today the wider Ukraine war,
Putin has invoked the concepts of a “divided people” and “protecting
compatriots abroad.” The central argument is that, since the Soviet
collapse, there has been a mismatch between Russia’s state borders and its
national or ethnic borders. This is both a historical injustice and a
threat to Russia’s security. There is no doubt that we can draw
strength from our past. But even the most glorious history is not enough to
ensure a better life. Today’s generations of Russians must reinforce this
grandeur through their acts. Understanding
Putin’s Worldview Part Three.
Putin has turned everything upside down. He has destroyed all the
achievements of recent decades, including his own. He has accomplished the
exact opposite of his stated goals: instead of demilitarizing Ukraine, he
has caused the country to arm as never before; instead of keeping NATO
away, he has brought it right up to Russia’s borders. Trying to impose his
version of the nation’s history, he deprived it of its history. And by
depriving it of history, he amputated the future. Why The War In Ukraine Is Shifting.
We show what will happen if Putin wins this war or when he loses.
We also expose Granny Anya as a character from the Kremlin’s world of
paradoxes, a world in which history itself has been turned inside
out. The Re-Invention Of History
And National Identity.
The role of NATO, the trans-Atlantic military alliance founded in 1949
specifically to counter the Soviet Empire in Europe, has been an evolving
discussion since the breakup of the USSR. But the decision to accept former
members of the Warsaw Pact, the defensive alliance which included the USSR
and several eastern European countries, is subject to revisionist history.
This perpetuated a myth that Nato promised not to expand eastwards after
the Soviet Union dissolved. Putin’s
Revisionist Worldview Part One.
The reason Putin started the current war is that he wanted to
exclude the possibility that Ukraine would be able to join NATO (which, if
so, would take several years for Ukraine to even be able to fulfill the
minimum requirements for that) whereby now as a reaction to Russia invading
Ukraine Sweden and Finland two countries that 'do' meet the 'immediate'
requirements to join NATO whereby Finland has a much wider border with
Russia than Ukraine. We explain why Putin sees the USA as its archenemy. Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview
Part Two.
Finland and Sweden to receive enhanced access to NATO intel over
Ukraine, and NATO is no longer bound by past commitments to hold back from
deploying its forces in eastern Europe, the US-led alliance’s deputy
secretary-general Dan Mircea Geoană said on 29 May, 2022. Moscow itself has
“voided of any content” of the Nato-Russia Founding Act by attacking
Ukraine and halting dialogue with the alliance, Geoană told
AFP. Understanding
Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Three.
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Due to the Ukraine crisis spy agencies currently are revealing
intelligence info what they would not do in normal times. Whereby to spy or
not to spy has always been a question. Spies naturally prefer surveilling
to attacking. Their job is acquiring information that yields an advantage.
Whether it comes from a human or inside a computer network, access to
valuable information is hard-won and fiercely guarded. Spies will always
elect to keep listening rather than lose a collection stream when in doubt.
Intelligence-military frictions are especially salient in cyberspace today
because intelligence is integral to effective offensive cyber operations.
Cyberspace also raises new questions about who counts as a decision-maker -
and how the Intelligence Community should interact with them. Meet The New World Today’s Spy
Agencies Part Three.
A new brand of diplomacy is taking hold in Beijing, and its chief
architects have a suitably fierce nickname to match their aggressive style;
they are the wolf warriors. It’s a phrase that is now used widely in
Chinese state-run media and Western publications, and it was made clear
that its proponents have the full support of the country’s top
diplomat. But “Wolf Warrior” is the title of a series of patriotic
action films in China, featuring Rambo-like protagonists who fight enemies
at home and abroad to defend Chinese interests. How The Movie Industry Became Chineses Diplomacy.
Sony and Walt Disney Company would learn how easy it was
to cut a single scene or line of dialogue from a movie to get approval from
Chinese censors, but this was a 130-minute humanization of a Chinese state
enemy and an assault on its most sensitive political issue.
Disney's chief executive Michael Eisner's mind was racing with
the implications it might spell for Disney’s plans in China, but the former
secretary of state Henry Kissinger remained unfazed by the whole
thing. Granted, Kissinger had negotiated Nixon’s meeting with Mao Zedong in
1972, a détente that reorganized the world order. Given China’s economic
growth and the political power it had accrued since Nixon and Mao shook
hands in Beijing, it was fitting that, twenty-four years later, he would be
called in to save Mickey Mouse. How The
Movie Industry Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Two.
In Oct. 2019, Universal Beijing Resort announced the creative vision
behind its widely anticipated theme park, Universal Studios Beijing. The New Themed Lands will include Kung Fu
Panda. How The Movie Industry Became
Chineses Diplomacy Part Three.
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“The Eight Hundred,” a film released last year that follows Chinese
soldiers protecting a warehouse from the Japanese army in 1937 Shanghai,
brought in $472 million in revenue, making it the world’s
second-highest-grossing film of 2020. Between the lines: “It’s not as
explicit as Beijing handing out orders,” writes Amanda Morrison for Foreign
Policy. Instead, the government has shifted its approach from direct
intervention to indirect incentivization by shaping the economic conditions
of the film industry to favor patriotic cinema. How The Movie Industry Became Chineses
Diplomacy Part Four.
The version of history recorded in most American history textbooks
and commonly repeated today is that the decision to drop bombs on Hiroshima
and Nagasaki in August was justified to avoid further American casualties.
But Truman could have waited, even for just a few weeks, and that might
have saved the lives of over 200,000 Japanese people. It might have even
delayed the start of the Cold War and the nuclear arms race that followed. A Candid Look At The Why Two Atomic Bombs.
It might seem obvious that on the eve of war, a German expedition
traveling to Tibet, sponsored by Himmler, might be interested in plotting
against the enemies of the Reich. However, Schäfer and Beger always denied
that their work was anything other than scientific. The evidence suggests
otherwise. Schäfer went behind the back of the British by illegally
crossing into Tibet and negotiating with the Tering Raja, who disliked the
British. As war became certain, Schäfer realized that his personal
friendships with the Tibetan regent and Lhasa nobility could be of
strategic value. The expedition became aware that some Tibetans were very
hostile to the British; the Regent even asked if Schäfer could supply him
with rifles, a request that was rejected. However, by 1940, that request
had been reconsidered. In a letter on 12 January 1940, he wrote: 'The
political group has to be equipped with machinery, guns and 200 military
firearms that I promised to the regent of Tibet'. So, either Schäfer
dissembled even to his own colleagues, or he contacted the Regent again
after September. Either way, it is a damning statement.
Having previously presented in the context of China we now describe The Actual History Behind The Seven Years
In Tibet With Brad Pitt.
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Having earlier taken a deep dive into Russian history which included
an extensive article detailing why Putin claims that most of Ukraine “was
given” to Russia, it was a recent remark by chief General Nick Carter (who
in spite of having sprained her back was received by the Queen on 17 Nov.)
that made us decide to take a close look at the dynamics of the Cold War
and the making of Putin. Putin And The Cold War Part Two.
Notwithstanding the fact that the rules-based order established in the
post-World War II period is enshrined in a wide array of UN laws and
conventions, as the following chapters reveal, the challenge China is
delivering to both the rules-based order and the UN system is evident. And
framed this way, the rest of the world also has a much clearer stake in the
outcome. China The Pandemic
And Sovereignty.
China’s BRI and efforts to transform norms and values in international
institutions reflect a global challenge that necessitates a global
response. The breadth and depth of China’s engagement with the world’s
developing economies, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, provide
it with fertile ground for its values, technologies, and policy preferences
to take hold, and a strong and consistent base of support for policies in
other areas, such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong. While China may claim
reservoirs of elite support in some developing economies, however, polls
suggest that the majority of citizens in many developing economies favor
Japanese, EU, or US leadership over that of China. China's Pursuit Of Greatness.
Leaked documents show Xi Jinping helped direct the forcible assimilation
of China’s Uighurs and other minorities. Whereby China is also developing
advanced weapons, leading U.S. officials to push for the first nuclear
talks between the two countries. In pursuing their vision, China’s leaders
operate from their own distinctive playbook that reflects their domestic
governance model: a highly centralized Party-state that possesses the
ability to mobilize resources from the public and private sectors, to
deploy those resources across multiple domains, to control the content and
flow of information, to penetrate societies and economies globally, and to
leverage the power of the country’s vast market, as well as it's military. China's Pursuit Of Greatness
Part Two And Conclusion.
While on the eve of global war in 1914, the world was no stranger to
warfare. It was also no stranger to the idea that inter-state conflict
should be prevented. Before July 1914, it was generally acknowledged
that a country could remain neutral as long as its government maintained a
good relationship with the belligerents. That is to say, neutrality was
sustainable as long as the country was not invaded (when it automatically
became a belligerent) and as long as any violation of the legal and
political requirements of neutral states in time of war was policed by the
neutral government and was validated by the belligerents. But that is not
what happened and is one of the reasons why due to the development of the
First World War, we better understand what led to the Second World War. In
the Summer of 1918, the world also experienced a great pandemic.
Revisiting The First World War.
The total global tragedy that evolved between 1914 and 1918 created
an international environment of unsettledness that reverberates to our
present. As such, the First World War is not ancient history but very much
part of our collective living past. Revisiting
The First World War Part Two.
An unclassified U.S. intelligence document details some of the
intelligence findings, including the positioning of what officials say could
eventually be 100 battalion tactical groups, as well as heavy armor,
artillery, and other equipment. Whereby Secretary of State Antony Blinken
said. “We do know that he’s putting in place the capacity to do so in short
order should he so decide.” In order to know what is next with
Ukraine, one also has to know: Why
Putin Believes Ukraine Was Given To Russia.
On 7 December 1941 was the Pearl Harbor attack. In early
December German forces stood close to Moscow, and it seemed the Soviet
capital would soon fall. Japan was at war in China but retained diplomatic
relations with other world powers. On Dec. 11, in a speech before
Germany’s Reichstag, Hitler announced his declaration of war on the United
States. Hitler was well aware of American power, indeed obsessed by
it. He was also sure that the United States would enter the war against him
sooner or later. He thought the only solution was pre-emptive. Hitler
may have believed that the Japanese who attacked Pearl
Harbor would distract America long enough for him to reach his goal,
and so he wanted to encourage Tokyo by adding his support. Revisiting
The First World War Part Three.
Continuing a long and shameful history of anthroposophists suing
those who write critically about their movement, the German federation of
Waldorf schools has announced it will sue journalists who have reported on
the role of Steiner's followers in the current pandemic. In fact also
in France, this time former Waldorf student who became a Waldorf teacher
was used not just sued once but six times by the central head
of Waldorf schools in France. The Cult Of Rudolf Steiner Part One
Of Two.
Over the last few weeks, the emergence of the super
transmissible Omicron variant has shown that even seeming miracles
have limits. Although researchers are still racing to figure out just how
effective mRNA shots (and all shots) are at preventing illness from
Omicron, initial research suggests that the falloff is significant. One
study found that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are 30 percent
effective at preventing infection, and a third dose given as a booster
increased the effectiveness to 75 percent. What
Next With mRNA.
Having discussed both the First and the Second World War except
for 1917-18 we
have mentioned nothing about spies in the modern era whereby a good place
to start is with Poland. Following the partitions in the late 18th
century, Poland ceased to exist for 123 years until the end of World War I,
when the destruction of the neighboring powers allowed the country to
reemerge when in
according to Wilson's 13e point should have secured access to
the sea. Which was reversed following the demarcation
line in 1939 when Poland became part of the Soviet Union.
Polish Spies And The Lead-Up To
The Madrid Conference Part One.
When Lech Wałęsa couldn’t accept the defeat against Jozef Oleksy in
the 1915 election he turned to spy chief Andrzej Stanisław Milczanowski
which led to the 1996 resignation of Prime Minister Jozef Oleksy. The Poles
however were most anxious about the upcoming Madrid conference, where they
expected to become a member of NATO. Polish
Spies And The Lead-Up To The Madrid Conference Part Two.
President Clinton was treated to a tumultuous welcome in Poland.
With Yalta on his mind, Clinton told a cheering crowd in Warsaw’s Old Town
that Poland’s acceptance by NATO was “a promise redeemed.” A banner reading
THANK YOU, BILL fluttered above the crowd. Declared Clinton: “Never again
will your birthright of freedom be denied.” Poland And The Lead-Up To The Madrid Conference.
The initial abandonment of the Warsaw Pact concerns one of the first
critical steps that happened not in Germany but in Hungary. The reason
Hungary did not simply announce it was leaving the pact outright, according
to a confidential West German assessment, was that such a rupture might
endanger Mikhail Gorbachev. Because of President George H. W. Bush's
success in getting Helmut Kohl to link unification with expansion in this
way, the fight for German unity and the fight for NATO's future beyond the
old inner-German dividing line became the same. The Abandonment Of The Warsaw Pact.
Between the fall of the Wall and the rise of Putin, animosity
between Moscow and Washington over NATO’s future became central to the
making of a post–Cold War political order that looked much like its Cold
War predecessor - and to the unmaking of hopes for cooperation from
Vancouver to Vladivostok. The Abandonment
Of The Warsaw Pact Part Two.
Places as distant as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan became partners to NATO
without requiring full membership - and with unexpected benefits. To
facilitate exercises after that, they joined the Partnership; the US
Congress appropriated funds to upgrade their airfields so that NATO planes
could use them. American aircraft later employed those upgraded airstrips
to deploy special forces after the 9/ 11 attacks on the United States,
showing the unexpected military and political benefits of inclusive
Partnership. The fall of the Berlin Wall heralded new times of grace
and gift - at long last, for more than Western Europe. The Abandonment Of
The Warsaw Pact Part Three.
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Institute for Sociology and the History of Ideas: "The Esoteric: Crossing Over"
When a large comet struck the earth, this was bad news for dinosaurs
but good news for us. Most believe that Homo sapiens could not have
coexisted with such carnivorous beasts. We probably would have been a tasty
appetizer: a tall, moderately sized, fleshy mammal who ran upright (easily
spotted) and could not run that fast (easily caught). We can be thankful
our ancestors were small, ground-hugging, sub-snack-sized rodents, not
worth pursuing. When Humanity
Almost Got Wiped Out.
Various streams of Buddhism are differentiated to some extent by
their interpretations of the Buddha and the Buddha’s teachings, the
scriptures they hold in special reverence, and the variety of cultural
expressions they lend to Buddhist life and practice. It would be a mistake,
however, to identify these streams of tradition too rigidly with either
specific ideas or specific geographical areas. Discussion, Buddhism.
A developing story, Ukraine. If Putin proceeds, our opinion is that
it might be Russia’s new Afghanistan. A more ominous concern is that
Belarus, an authoritarian state closely allied to Moscow, could deploy
Russian nuclear weapons. Russia insists it has no plans to invade Ukraine,
wherein in 2014, it already seized one province and backed separatist
rebels in another region. However, Moscow’s build-up of offensive weaponry
and troops leaves little doubt that at least a potential assault is being
prepared as a way to back the Kremlin’s broader aim of preventing
pro-Western Ukraine from leaving the Russian sphere of influence. Ukraine Today.
There is no standard or universal form of the human being,
underlying the variations that are so apparent to all of us. In their
dispositions and their capacities, and to some extent even in their
morphology, the humans of today are different not only from one another but
also from their prehistoric predecessors. This is because these
characteristics are not fixed genetically, but emerge within development
processes, and because the circumstances of development today, cumulatively
shaped through previous human activity, are very different from those of
the past. In this sense, the story of human evolution is still going on,
even in the course of our everyday lives. But it is not a story of upward
movement, along a scale from lower to higher, nor is it one of breakthrough
to a superior level of being, over and above the organic. The Myth Of Human Origins.
Today Antony Blinken noted that, in addition to the U.S. response,
NATO plans to deliver to Moscow its own paper outlining proposals and
concerns about collective security in Europe. Blinken said he expects to
discuss the next steps with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the
coming days after the Kremlin has had a chance to read the U.S. response. What The Situation
Looks Like Going Forward.
Major
Case Study: A petition has been filed
in the Supreme Court of India seeking a stay on the steaming of the movie
"Why I killed Gandhi" which is set to be released on 30th
January, Mahatma Gandhi's death anniversary. The petitioner says that the
movie has not been cleared by the CBFC and is going for a direct OTT
release. However, there is much more to this story. In the wake of the
movie now also comes a book. From act to acting and now the book. A Movie, A New Book, And What India Stands For
Today.
Only one person knows whether the Ukraine crisis will lead to war,
the man who started it: Vladimir Putin. UK PM suggests that Russian forces pose a ‘clear
danger’ to Ukraine. This while Putin accuses the U.S. of trying to lure
Russia into war.
Major Case Study: Putin Has Long Tried To Balance Europe. Now
He’s Working To Reset It.
U.S. to bolster firepower as Putin refuses to de-escalate.
This morning the CIA, possible in cooperation with the Ukrainian
intelligence service, was able to successfully get advanced knowledge that
Russia is planning to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine by
falsely blaming the Ukrainian military for an attack that would include
corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed
locations.
Important Case Study: Meet The New World Today's Spy Agencies.
Ukraine’s north span roughly 100,000 square miles of
wetlands. During the winter, these mucky flatlands freeze over,
providing a more stable terrain for heavy military vehicles that would
otherwise get stuck in the mud. The frozen ground, usually present in
February, could provide Russian troops with the best window to cross into
Ukraine. Flagged as a potential hazard for Western forces it should be said
that Russian troops have long proved quite adept at handling marsh and
swamp terrain. Also, more roads have recently been built throughout
the marshes. traversing the open terrain would be strategically important.
And while an invasion from Belarus’s south would be the most direct route
to Ukraine’s capital, many expect potential Russian military aggression to
also come from the northeast and east, where more than 100,000 Russian
troops have amassed on the country’s border with Ukraine:
Following up on our yesterday’s comment, another access point for
Russia is a 12-mile-long, $4 billion bridge over the strait that directly
linked Russia to Crimea. Russian state media hailed the bridge as ‘construction
of the century’ Ukraine, and the West have called the bridge another
illegal infringement on Kyiv’s sovereignty.
To some, Ukraine has become the geopolitical faultline between the
liberal democratic West and authoritarian, neo-imperial Russia under
President Vladimir Putin. Foreign policy luminaries in Washington openly
discuss the current state of affairs as a new Cold War. Beneath the
political divisions of the present lies a country's deep, complex past. The
land that's now Ukraine has long been dear to Russian nationalists. But it
has also been home to a host of other peoples and empires. Its shifting
borders and overlapping histories all have echoes in the current heated
moment. We Show In Seven Maps How Ukraine
Came About.
There has been no time during the past 35 years where all
intelligence (meaning spy) agencies in every country of the world today are
focused on one issue and that is the potential war in Ukraine because it is
crucial for three major countries and the is Russia China and the USA and
each other country in the world has a connection with at least one of the
latter countries and in some cases two or even all three countries. So we
decided it is time to explain how intelligent agencies actually work and
what matters the most. This includes looking ahead, maximizing the
benefits, and mitigating the risks of the evolving open-source nuclear
intelligence landscape will be essential. That process starts by
recognizing that the future may not look like the present and that the
present system has weaknesses. Other issues
to look at are Counterintelligence and covert action, classified into four
broad types. Meet The New World
Today’s Spy Agencies Part Two.
While the world is on the brink of the largest military offensive in
Europe since World War II, the US contacted all Americans in Ukraine,
asking them to leave immediately also Britons have been told to leave
Ukraine immediately. A fixation on nonstarters - such as Putin’s
demands for a NATO expansion moratorium or the West’s insistence that
Russia withdraws from Crimea - will make reaching a new security agreement
impossible. But negotiators could progress by focusing on other issues and
then embedding intractable problems into a larger deal. Widening the
aperture of the negotiations could create opportunities for deals that are
currently not available. For instance, if Russia withdraws support for the
so-called separatists in Donbas, the United States could commit to not
installing offensive missiles in Ukraine and not deploying missile defenses
in Europe that can intercept Russian weapons. And why Western diplomats
must insist again that Putin obtain permission before placing troops in
other countries, which would keep Russia in line with agreements signed by
its previous leaders. Yet if war or not talking to Putin will have to
restart sooner or later whereby; What Should
Not Be Taken Off The Table When Talking With Putin.
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As creators and workers realize their collective power in the
coming months and years, these movements will grow in number. And as
demonstrated throughout history, many can sometimes significantly
outperform the power of the hierarchical few: Economics And Real-Time Revolution.
In this article, we present an overview of the Empires and their
changes due to WWI and WWII. The Sino-Japanese war copying Western imperialism
had the unusual character that neither side was in a position to win, and
the longer the war went on, the less the likelihood of outright victory.
After the war, the Allies rescinded Japanese pre-war annexations such as
Manchuria. Korea became militarily occupied by the United States in the
south and the Soviet Union in the north. The Philippines and Guam were
returned to the United States. In the end, an argument could also be made
that political actors across the globe got involved with superpowers to
wage wars not as mere proxies but as people with their agendas. Beginnings And Endings Of
Empires.
As an example of why hunter-gatherer societies were more
complex than we previously imagined, and civilization did not start the
places like Greece, in the 7000's. Early 6000's people founded villages in
new niches, both in the natural habitat zone of wild plants and animals and
increasingly to the south along with the Mesopotamian plain and away from
the region that was the scene of the first villages. The World’s Earliest Cities And What It
Means For Today.
Continuing with part two we will see those hereditary aristocracies
were just as likely to exist among demographically small or modest-sized
groups and that the Neolithic began with flood-retreat agriculture, which
was easy work and encouraged redistribution; the most significant
populations were concentrated in deltaic environments. Göbekli Tepe Revisited Part Two.
Early on Swedish geologist Johan Gunnar Andersson discovered
similarities between the Yangshao Culture's unearthed painted pottery and
the painted pottery of Central Asia. as well as those of the Tripolye
Culture in Tripoli in the northwest of the Black Sea. We expand this
further by stating that also when rice cultivation appears to have
spread from its origins to areas farther south, including lands that are
today’s Southeast Asian countries. Göbekli Tepe Revisited Part Three.
Following is part one of two of a major case study we started on
25 Sept. 2021. Contrary to expectations, the result of the Pearl Harbour
came only after five additional days, whereby it was Hiter's declaration of
war on the United States, much more than Pearl Harbor, which created a new
global strategic reality and, ultimately, a new world. Major Case Study: The Pearl Harbour Attack And Its
Consequences Part One.
Yesterday the highly anticipated COP26 climate change summit begins
later in the Scottish city of Glasgow. Delegates from about 200 countries
will announce how they will cut emissions by 2030 and help the
planet. Twenty years ago, we feared rampant overpopulation. Today’s
most urgent task is to nurture those alive and yet to be born to ensure the
survival of humanity through this century. The Search For
Nextpolis.
The United States, Hitler had told his foreign minister, was contesting
Japan and Germany’s right to exist. He regarded war with Roosevelt as
inevitable, and he had already accepted that the campaign in the east would
not be completed by the end of the year. Should Japan become engaged in a
war against the United States, Ribbentrop, therefore, told Japanese
ambassador Hiroshi Oshima, Germany, of course, would join the war
immediately. There is absolutely no possibility of Germany’s entering into
a separate peace with the United States under such circumstances. The Führer
is determined on that point. The Japanese did not tell the Germans that the
Combined Fleet had already been put to sea. Berlin had, in effect, issued
Tokyo with a blank check, which it could cash at a moment of its own
choosing. Major Case Study: The Pearl Harbour Attack And Its Consequences
Part Two.
Back in Mach 2018, The New Yorker published an article
titled "Why Jewish History Is So Hard to Write" the article,
in particular, criticizes the two most common approaches to
writing Jewish history. Intrigued by this critique we decided on a
third approach. The Way To Zionism.
While the Jews of Europe were being incinerated in the name of the
Nazis’ vision of racial purity, the Jews of America were offered a golden
opportunity to prove their allegiance to the American spirit, to make
anti-Semitism, and anti-Jewish discrimination unacceptable, and to secure
complete social integration. This process effectively transformed them into
members of white society and faithful adherents of the American creed that
embraced Catholics and Protestants, emphasizing their liberal common ground
over religious differences. The Way To Zionism Part Two.
Although leaders from China declined to attend COP26 in Glasgow,
Beijing reaffirmed its climate targets of peaking carbon dioxide emissions
before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. Early in
October US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the Chinese government
to 'act responsibly when handling the Evergrande crisis. Whereby the
question now is: How
Concerned Should We Be When Chinese Growth Runs Out?
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At precisely the time of a profound moral crisis among liberal
American Jews, who search for a new Jewish, ethical, a universal foothold
in the face of assimilation, the disintegration of communities, and the
increasing alienation from Israel, the Israeli Century will require, more
than anything else, Jewish creativity that is both rooted and cosmopolitan,
which will find a new balance among the threats, both from within and
without, facing Jews in Israel and across the Diaspora. This struggle will
be decided in various contexts, forums, and communities worldwide, but the
most crucial battlefield will be the norms, laws, and values that define
the Jewish state itself. The Way To Zionism Part Three.
On November 15-16 an International Conference on Quran in
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia will take place. And while renewed discussions no
doubt will take place about manuscripts found in 2015 appear to
confirm the tradition that Muhammad’s immediate successor, Abu Bakr
(632–634 CE), ordered the creation of an authoritative text of the
Prophet’s visions. Whereby for a wider context of what the early spread of
Islam concerns we also have to look at the context of Rome and Persia
at War, the bubonic plague, and the fight and split in reference
to the Holy Trinity. Major Case Study: Early Islam And The Decay Of Rome Part One.
After six years at Medina, Muhammad announced that he would make a
pilgrimage back to Mecca. The return was put off while Muhammad negotiated
with the Quraysh. In the end, the two sides agreed to the Treaty of
Hudaybiya, according to which Muhammad would be allowed to make a
pilgrimage to Mecca in ten years’ time. Two years later, Muhammad claimed
the Quraysh had violated the agreement and announced that he would come
immediately to Mecca. Early Islam And The Decay Of Rome Part Two.
On November 18-19, 2021 the major ICQPQM: International Conference
on Quantum Probability and Quantum Mechanics will take place in Singapore.
As the title suggests it bring together leading academic scientists,
researchers, and research scholars to exchange and share their experiences
and research results on all aspects of Quantum Probability and Quantum
Mechanics. But as Nassim Nicholas Taleb recently wrote
"survivorship bias implies that the highest performing realization
will be the most visible." I fact as we shall see this also very much
applies to Quantum Mechanics. The Disputes About Quantum Mechanics.
As Holy Roman emperor, Charles V is a figure who is in many ways
evocative of the Roman emperor Heraclius. Heraclius failed to recognize the
weakness of his empire in the wake of the Persian war and then proceeded to
alienate many of the subjects who returned to his sway after years of
Persian rule. If he had realized that he needed to negotiate his authority
rather than impose it, the door to the Arab conquest might not have opened.
Charles’ open contempt for his German subjects and his evident weakness in
the face of the challenge of the Ottoman state invited revolt. Like
Muhammad, Luther emerged from the context of a religious reform movement to
play a crucial role in uniting opposition to the status quo. Also, like
Muhammad, he did not shape the state that emerged as a result of his
preaching, that was left to others who took his ideas in directions that he
often did not approve of. His poor relationship with Henry VIII is a case
in point. The Holy Roman Empire, The
Reformation, And The Birth Of The Netherlands.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said nearly 100,000
Russian soldiers near Ukraine’s border and that Western countries had
shared information about active Russian troop movements with Kyiv. The
ruble weakened on the news, slipping 0.5% against the dollar toward its
first weekly loss in three. Ruble bonds fell for a second day, with the
yield on 10-year debt climbing three basis points to 8.07%. Stocks headed
for their biggest drop in two weeks. Ans while in our opinion this
alleged major invasion is not likely to happen soon this is a good time to
take a closer lookat the history that led to the current situation. Why Putin Claims That Most Of Ukraine “Was Given”
To Russia.
As we have seen in parts one and two of ‘Islam,’ radical change
‘always begins with ideas that took shape on the fringes.’ The “mainstream”
has been inherently conservative throughout time, allowing for incremental
change but essentially dedicated to preserving its power structures as the
dominant ideology justifies existing relationships. Not all radical groups
are the same, and all the groups will explore take advantage of challenges
that have already shaken the social order. They ‘take advantage of mistakes
that have challenged belief in the competence of existing institutions’ to
be effective. In July 1914, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia faced a
dilemma, mainly of his own making. Franz-Ferdinand, heir apparent to the
throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, had been murdered by a Serbian
terrorist on June 28. The
Transformation Of The Russian Empire Part One.
Tsarist Russia and Weimer Germany were failing states before either
Lenin or Hitler came along. But that does not mean their victories were
foregone conclusions. Neither man had ever run anything; their immediate
supporters hadn't either. Powerful slogans and mass demonstrations were
more critical to their campaigns than the capacity to point to any active
achievements in public policy. The Transformation Of The Russian Empire
Part Two.
More than meets the eye to the affair surrounding the Chinese tennis
star Peng Shuai, who disappeared after accusing a former top Chinese
official of raping her than meets the eye. After a substantial
international flap, she has reappeared, telling the International Olympic
Committee she is safe and sound. And are Peng’s allegations the spontaneous
outburst of an outraged woman or part of the internecine power struggle in
Beijing? If Zhang gets taken down for corruption, the answer will be the
latter scenario. In China, when officials are charged with a crime, often
the charges include sexual impropriety.
Despite occasional outbursts, the meeting at Yalta had been
conducted in an atmosphere of goodwill. Potsdam, according to Hugh Lunghi,
was ’a bad-tempered conference’. The alliance of personalities that held
things together was dissolving. Within days, Roosevelt would be out of
office, replaced by Clement Attlee. By the end of the Potsdam gathering,
only Stalin would remain from the wartime Big Three leaders. late in
February 1946, George Kennan, the No. 2 at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, sent
his momentous “long telegram” to the State Department analyzing Stalin’s
malign designs on Europe and sketching a containment strategy. Putin And The Cold War Part One.
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The unpredictability of the human species is well known.
Idiosyncratic traits of each family swamp the generic predictors, no matter
how cleverly they are combined. It’s a reassurance to people who worry
artificial intelligence will soon predict our every move, but also a
chastening smackdown of our pretensions to understand the causal network in
which we find ourselves fully. The Logic Of Human Nature And Causal
Networks.
For all the conquests of the reality mindset, the mythology mindset
still occupies swaths of territory in the landscape of mainstream
belief. Thankfully, Western religious belief is safely parked in the
mythology zone, where many people are protective of its
sovereignty. Another zone of mainstream unreality is the national myth
which is closely related to historical fiction. Whereby when the
events come too close to the present, or the fictionalization rewrites
important facts, historians can sound an alarm, as when Oliver Stone
brought an assassination conspiracy theory to life in the 1991 movie JFK.
In 2020, others objected to the television series The Crown, a dramatized
history of Queen Elizabeth and her family, which took liberties with many
depicted events. Rationality And Progress.
In January 1986 Gorbachev proposed the elimination of all nuclear weapons
by the year 2000. Yet what led to the collapse of the USSR is that Gorbachev’s Reforms, intended to
modernize and democratize the Soviet Union, deprived the government of
resources and empowered separatism.
As we have seen, the conventional chronology of WWII from 1939-45 is
no longer helpful, and the war must be understood as a global event in
direct consequence to WWI. Mobilization of empire manpower varied
widely. How The Various
Countries Justified WWII Part One.
History in East Asia is not just the past; it’s very much current
affairs. Yet the lack of attention to East Asian history in the Western,
and specifically perception is causing an increasingly problematic
distortion in Western understandings of the contemporary world. Because of
its economic and geopolitical weight and the dangerous tensions inherent
within it, East Asia will matter to the world in the 2020s more than it has
for perhaps two hundred years. Today, some of the world’s most dangerous
potential clashes are in the Asia–Pacific region:
o The nuclear threat from North Korea
o Maritime conflicts in the South and East China
Seas
o The possibility of a war over Chinese reunification
with Taiwan
o The China–India clash in the Himalayas
o The military coup of 2021 in Myanmar
Every single one of these very contemporary flashpoints has its
origins in modern East Asian history. The
Importance Of South And East Asia.
The New Order constructed by the European Axis faced an entirely
different geopolitical reality. However, it too was built and ruined by war
even more fully than the empire of Japan. The countries invaded and
occupied in 1940 and 1941 were not colonies but independent sovereign
states with their own political, legal, and economic structures. Hitler's
Germany's principal aggressor, which rescued Mussolini's failing
imperialism in Europe and North Africa. As a result, the shape of the New
Order was determined mainly from Berlin and in German interests. The
central concept of a German-dominated Grossraum (literally 'Great Area')
was not unlike the idea behind the Co-Prosperity Sphere, where conventional
Western notions of sovereignty were set aside in favor of an array of
states and territories acknowledging the unique role of the imperial center
as the directing hand of the whole. Creating
A New World Order Part One.
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The war in Korea demonstrated the extent to which the broader Cold
War confrontation was fuelled by the crisis points of decolonization, as in
the later Vietnam War. But the outcome reflected only a limited extent the
suggestion that this was also a clash of Soviet and American ‘empires’
rather than an ideological confrontation. This is not merely a semantic
difference. Korea was divided into two independent sovereign states after
thirty-five years as a colony, and they remained independent after four years
of war. The Soviet and American hegemons played their part in the outcome
and aftermath, as did newly Communist China. Still, the end of the Japanese
empire in 1945 was not an invitation to recolonize. From the 1930s to the
violent post-war years, the long Second World War ended not only a
particular form of an empire but discredited the more extended history of
the term. The Second World War Created The
Conditions For Transforming Europe And The Entire Global Geopolitical Order.
The Second Sino-Japanese War between the Empire of Japan and the
Republic of China had been in progress since 7 July 1937, with hostilities
dating back as far as 19 September 1931 with the Japanese invasion of
Manchuria. However, it is more widely accepted that the Pacific War itself
began on 7 December when Japan staged a surprise attack on Pearl
Harbor, or was it? The Five Days That Made
Pearl Harbours As A Key For The Worldwide War.
As we have seen in the last part between the Pearl Harbor attack and
Hitler’s declaration of war on the United States, five days passed during
which the future of those disconnected struggles was decided, and every
significant power was forced to commit to one of two camps. This interval
was the crucible for a new global alignment that would dramatically alter
the course of deadly conflict and reverberate far beyond the war. If
for Hitler the die was cast, things were still very much uncertain
in Washington and London. Axis
States Understood They Settled The Moral Low Ground.
The geopolitical transformation following Pearl Harbour in only a
matter of weeks produced a fundamental shift in the relationship between
the United States and its imperial ally. According to the Total War
Institute in a publication in early 1942, all the peoples in the sphere
would obtain their ‘proper positions,’ the inhabitants would all share a
‘unity of people’s minds, but the globe would have the empire of Japan at
its center. The Old Order Is
Crumbling, And A New Order Is Rising.
The trustee powers were the same powers that had operated the
territories as League of Nations Mandates. Still, this time their activity
as trustees was to be supervised by a United Nations Committee on
Information from Non-Self-Governing Territories and a Trusteeship
Council. The Post-WWII New
Order Part One.
The ideological underpinning of the Japanese New Order was essential
to the self-understanding of the thousands of officials, propagandists, and
planners who radiated out from Japan to help run the new territories. But
this was not intended as a ‘Wilsonian moment’ in which Japan would grant
unconditional independence because President Wilson’s promises in 1918 were
regarded among Japanese leaders as mere hypocrisy. The Post-WWII New Order Part Two.
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In the end, as we
have seen there is very little evidence if any at all about Sean McMeekin’s
contention in his recent 2021 book that the Second World War was more
Stalin’s war. In fact, there is very little evidence that Stalin had any
firm notions in 1944-45 about developing some sort of Communist bloc in
Eastern Europe after the war. This will be shown on hand of our new
research results which will post in the coming weeks, including that in the
end, it was Hitler’s intervention in reference to Pearl Harbor that truly
created a world war and transformed international history. Russia, Germany, And
Poland Part Sixteen.
Called Asia’s
orphaned cinderella, many people in Myanmar are now are on their
own. The most prominent ethnic armed group in Myanmar, unrecognized by
the Myanmar government except as a “unique region, recently has introduced
fines and harsh criminal sentences for anyone caught aiding illegal border
crossings. Roughly the size of Belgium, mainly without Myanmar ID cards but
determinately not Chinese, it might soon be a critical area that determines
the future of Myanmar. There is the potential for international
escalation as Chinese troops are reported to be assembling at the border
with troops that are said to have rapid response capabilities. Major Case Study: Myanmar
And The Looming War For Its Borderlands Part One.
Biden defends the
decision to withdraw from Afghanistan after the Taliban’s rapid return to
power, and his administration is now weighing whether to recognize Taliban
rule officially. But there were also fears of worse to come. It was unclear
whether Western governments would continue evacuations at the airport
should they lose control of the perimeter to Taliban forces. What Next With Afghanistan.
Aside from
providing buffers, already early on it was important for China to have its
borderlands under its control. This was particularly important about the
southern border where Yunnan province meets Laos and Myanmar with almost no
major roads. During World War II, the United States struggled to build the
Burma Road to reach Yunnan and supply Chiang Kai-shek’s forces. The battle
at Kunlong bridge and the ensuing eradication of their old base areas in
central Burma turned out to be a turning point for the Burmese communists.
The government's army had managed to contain them in remote mountains along
the Chinese border, such as Kokang and the Wa Hills, where they did not
belong and had never intended to stay. Major Case Study: Myanmar And The Looming War For
Its Borderlands Part Two.
The Allies
originally envisaged a seaborne invasion of Burma and Malaya, but the
demand for ships and landing craft in the Mediterranean scotched this. The
Japanese had about one million men in Southeast Asia as a whole. In
addition, the Japanese could call upon about 80,000 friendly troops in the
Indian National Army and the Burma Independence Army; the Japanese could
call upon about 80,000 friendly soldiers in the Indian National Army and
the Burma Independence Army. An never before insight into the creating of
Myanmar/Burma now called the last frontier. Major Case Study: Myanmar And The Looming War For Its Borderlands
Part Three.
Today's called
Asia’s orphaned cinderella has an important history which I reveal for
maybe the first time ever. For the first time in history, the Wa has become
a unified nation with its own de facto state. That is no mean achievement
by a people who were head-hunters until only a few decades ago then used as
little more than cannon fodder for fulfilling the dream of a group of
Burmese communists whose language they do not even speak. Major Case Study: Myanmar And The Looming War For Its Borderlands
Part Four.
Spurned by the
West, Aung San Suu Kyi turned to China for sympathy and assistance. She
traveled to Beijing to meet Xi and was promised political support and
loans, and credits. Also an apparent friendly attitude toward the Tatmadaw
in the uncertain situation that followed the coup could have jeopardized
the past partnerships China has established, not only with Myanmar but also
with the other ASEAN members. Major Case Study: Myanmar And The Looming War For Its Borderlands
Part Five.
Several thousand
Indigenous people marched in the Brazilian capital of Brasilia on Wednesday
ahead of a major land rights ruling. Jair Bolsonaro’s government in
contrast attempts to further open up Indigenous lands to mining and other
commercial activities that could exacerbate the destruction of the Amazon
rainforest. Why The Political Climate In Brazil Matters
To The Rest Of The World.
Currently in the
process of hastily letting go of 20-year occupation that began shortly
after Sept. 11, cost over $2 trillion, took more than 170,000 lives and
ultimately failed to defeat the Taliban. Vowing retaliation for the recent
Kabul attack in its final move, the US carried out what it called a
defensive airstrike in Kabul, targeting a suspected ISIS-K suicide bomber
who posed an "imminent" threat to the airport, US Central Command
said Sunday. The Pentagon has said the strike resulted in secondary explosions,
and those explosions may have been what killed the civilians. Ten family
members, including children, died after the final US strike in Kabul. What Can Be
Said About US Involvement And The Current Situation In Afghanistan.
While Michael Lewis,
the author of bestsellers including the big short and liar’s poker, is
taking on a topic perhaps even more corrosive than Wall Street:
Coronavirus. Meanwhile, Adam Tooze came out with Shutdown: How Covid Shook
the World's Economy his, not to mention several others. A Plethora Of Authors Writing About The
Covid Fallout.
When the American
Psychiatric Association released the fifth Diagnostic and Statistical
Manual of Mental Disorders, the DSM-5. Gary Greenberg claimed the disorders
listed aren't real -- they're invented. Author of Manufacturing Depression:
The Secret History of a Modern Disease and contributor to The New Yorker,
Mother Jones, The New York Times, and other publications, Greenberg is a
practicing psychotherapist. The Book of Woe: The Making of the DSM-5 and
the Unmaking of Psychiatry is his exposé of the business behind creating
the new manual. The Secrets Behind The Making Of The Diagnostic And Statistical
Manual Of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part One.
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Originally
intended to be in four parts which shorten it to three. We already posted a
pilot version of it some years back but that now has been greatly expanded
on and corrected. The various Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental
Disorders (DSM)'s is a fractionation one but also a disturbing one. We will
cover DSM and psychiatric diagnosis aspects that make clinicians and
researchers vulnerable to biased diagnostic decisions. These include
Value-laden and vague concepts of mental disorder, upon which the entire
DSM nosology is based. Criterion biases, biases within diagnostic criteria
for specific disorders. Clinician bias, unfolding in a clinician–client
interaction. We will also add further clarifications and examinations of
bias in psychiatric diagnosis to understand it best and how diagnostic
decision-making may be linked to clinical competency to serve better
clients who seek our help. The Secrets Behind The Making Of The Diagnostic
And Statistical Manual Of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Two.
While in Part One
of our overview of the (in spite of its worldwide use by Psychiaters and
Medical Doctors) disputed Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental
Disorders (DSM) (and at times adventurous as we have seen) we
focused among others on it’s protagonist Robert L. Spitzer and the
construction of DSM-III. In Part Two we then also focused on both the
intra-professional external forces involved with DSM-IV and DSM-5
revision attempts. Yet observable symptoms persist in defining the DSM
diagnoses, a situation that general medicine surmounted more than a century
ago. The chemical and physical operations of the brain have yet to provide
clues that may unravel the mysteries of human consciousness and its
distortions. Mental disorders could require understandings that cannot be
completely removed from personal life experiences. The future of the DSM is
clearly at a crossroads, but the path it should take has no roadmap. The Secrets Behind The Making
Of The Diagnostic And Statistical Manual Of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part
Three.
Bias occurs
across a wide variety of judgment domains. People in all demographic groups
display it, and it is exhibited even by expert reasoners, the highly
educated, and the intelligent. Studies have shown a tendency toward the
biased search for evidence, biased evaluation of evidence, biased memory of
outcomes, and biased evidence manual. So What
To Do About Bias?
The Order of
Malta has 14,000 members, gathered forty-seven national associations, and
exchanged diplomatic representatives in 107 governments with its sovereign
Character. The cars of the Grand Master high officials and ambassadors have
diplomatic privileges and distinguish with CD number plates. The Order can
issue internationally recognized diplomatic passports. It has taken a look
at this subject for a few years which accumulated the insights in many
intrigues created by its self-styled mimic Orders, some of which have
been involved with issuing fake passports, fostering extremists groups, and
the like. The Hidden History
Of The Order Of Malta And Orders Of St. John Part One.
When German
military personnel retreating from Ukraine and took with them not only
thousands of sympathetic White officers, including several who went on to serve
the National Socialist cause in high-profile capacities but also a fateful
copy of the anti-Semitic forgery The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, which
came to play a role in the mimic Orders of Malta also called St. John and
their interplay with extreme right-wing forces. The Hidden
History Of The Order Of Malta And Orders Of St. John Part Two.
As we have seen
in part two following the First World War, the transfer extremist
anti-Bolshevik and anti-Semitic White views found their way in various
mimic Orders of Malta and St.John as a story which is becoming increasingly
more interesting. The Hidden History Of The Order Of Malta And
Orders Of St. John Part Three.
We are continuing
with our description of the various entanglements that led to the many fake
orders of Malta and Knights of St. John of which more than 20 groups that
claim a descendant of a nonexisting Russian tradition's the 1930s, a
Knights of St. Johngroup also ran a strange-sounding political The Ancient
and Noble Order of the Blue Lamoo. Factually the organization is called The
Ancient and Noble Order of the Blue Lamoo. The group, we would judge from
the type of stuff they advocate, is a super-Aryan cult and may have some
small following in this and other countries. Essentially its tenets are
those of all the shirt groups that have sprung up here and elsewhere, and
they but slightly exaggerate the policies of Nazi organizations. The Hidden
History Of The Order Of Malta And Orders Of St. John Part Four.
When the Pichel
Knights mimic Ordre of Malta assembled a ‘Military Affairs Committee’ that
included retired military officers from the CIA, including retired Gen.
Charles Willoughby and Colonel Philip J. Corso. Admiral Sir Barry Domvile,
interned by the British during World War II for his fascist sympathies, was
listed as the Knight’s ‘Honorary Grand Admiral.’Yet another Knight with
far-right connections was Prince Mihail R. Sturdza, a former leading member
of the interwar Romanian fascist movement Iron Guard Foreign Minister under
the Antonescu dictatorship. Thus some of the Knights may have served as a
‘cover’ or liaison to émigré groups the Army wished to use. Some of these,
the Shickshinny Knights, may have operated as a cover for sections of the
US military who were still committed to a vision of using far-right émigré
networks for special warfare operations despite strong resistance from the
CIA and OPC (Office of Policy Coordination) in particular. Through the
Knights, elements in the military maintained their off-the-books version of
Volunteer Freedom. The article also contains a section about the so-called
Episcopi vagantes (Latin for 'wandering bishops' or 'stray bishops').
The Hidden History Of The Order Of Malta And
Orders Of St. John Part Five.
In our earlier
assessment about the 1931 'Manchurian Incident,' that we posted on our
website in April 2021, we did so to gouge a potential
relationship between the Pacific war in 1944-45 and a potential future one
when, for example, about Taiwan, which President Xi covets and which
America is (ambiguously) committed to defending against invasion, a
commitment that increasingly lacks credibility as the balance of military
power shifts in East Asia. (The growing vulnerability of American aircraft
carriers to Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF-21D is just
one problem the Pentagon lacks a good solution.) Meaning if American
deterrence fails and China gambles on a coup de main, the United States
will face the grim choice between fighting a long, brutal war, as Britain
did in 1914 and 1939. Major Case Study: From The
Manchurian Incident To Word War II Part One.
As Kana Miller
whose books we have quoted in our article series recently wrote; though
Manchuria was a Chinese Territory, controlled by warlords loyal (in name if
not in the realm) to China's nationalist government, thousands of Japanese
soldiers were stationed there under the terms of an earlier treaty. This
enabled Japanese forces to overrun the area quickly. Within weeks of the
Manchurian Incident, they controlled the southern part of Manchuria, with
the north following by early 1932. Major
Case Study: From The Manchurian Incident To
Word War II Part Two.
Even after the
German invasion of Poland on 1 September, Chamberlain allowed him to withdraw
his forces rather than face a world war. Only a complete German
capitulation to British and French demands to end the violence would have
averted world war, and by 1 September, that was the least likely outcome. Major
Case Study: From The Manchurian Incident To
Word War II Part Three.
During the Great
Depression of the 1930s, Japan sought to solve its economic and demographic
woes by forcing its way into China, starting in 1931 with an invasion of
Manchuria. When a commission appointed by the League of Nations condemned
the attack, Japan withdrew from the international organization; it would
occupy Manchuria until 1945. The conventional chronology of WWII as from
1939-45 is no longer helpful. WWII must be understood as a global event
since the Asian and Pacific theatres were as important as the European
ones, and possibly more so in their consequences. Major
Case Study: From The Manchurian Incident To
Word War II Part Four.
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A subject, we covered extensively further below China in retrospect
now suddenly honors 4 soldiers who died during
the Galwan clash, disproves AltNews’ sly attempts to discredit
India’s claims of Chinese casualties...
The following map shows the largest trading partner of each
European country.
When President Joe Biden entered the White House determined to
restore the world’s confidence in the United States. That task is
particularly important in context of China. Where Will The China/US Competition Lead The World?
In the following, we proceed with investigating the dynamics of modern
China, Korea, and a strengthened Japan. The period under discussion is when
the non-Western world focused increasingly upon issues of race and
ethnicity, nationality and sovereignty, and the multiple ways East Asians
formed and re-formed their own realities in the wake of the First World
War. Can A Potential Future Pacific War Be Avoided?
The U.S.-Japan rivalry escalated in the aftermath of the First World
War to the point where the new Republican administration under President
Warren Harding felt that it was necessary to initiate a naval
limitation conference when strategic thinking permeated the Japanese Navy.
Of course, the Japanese Navy was far from being a monolithic entity as
illustrated by the clash between Admiral Katō Tomosaburō and Vice Admiral
Katō Kanji, who differed vastly in their view of global naval strategy and
the future course that Japan should take. Part Two Can A Potential Future
Pacific War Be Avoided?
Having recently covered; Where will the China/US competition lead the world? Turning
our view to SE Asia China looks the more likely prize-winner. It is the
region’s biggest trading partner and pumps in more investment than America
does. At least one South-East Asian country, Cambodia, is in effect already
a Chinese client state. And none is willing to cross China by openly siding
with America in the superpowers’ many rows. Trade and investment among the
countries of South-East Asia outweigh the business they do with China.
Another mechanism is strengthening ties with other Asian countries such as
Japan and South Korea, one ASEAN has rightly embraced. The Rivalry Between America And China In South-East Asia.
Having aspired to be a member of the civilized community by
adopting the Western political and social norms, the Chinese now discovered
that the nation-state system was not fair and open; rather, it was
dominated by Western powers eager to protect their own interests the
Chinese realized that Westernization alone would not win them recognition
in international affairs. Instead, they focused on recovering national
sovereignty through diplomatic negotiations and treaty revisions.
Paradoxically they believed that although the nation-state system was a
tool used by the Western powers to control the world, the system allowed a
discussion of national sovereignty as expounded in Wilson’s Fourteen
Points. To them, the only way to beat the system was to protect China’s
territorial sovereignty. Part Three Can A Potential Future Pacific
War Be Avoided?
On 9 March Asia Pacific commander Philip Davidson said that China
could invade Taiwan in the next six years and that (as has been clear for
sometime China is the world's rising power while the US is currently a
declining power) Beijing wants to take Washington’s world leadership role
by 2050. This comes after Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on troops
to "put all (their) minds and energy on preparing for war" in a
visit to a military base in the southern province of Guangdong. Following
is an overview of the wider background that led up to the current situation. Major Case Study. The Lead Up To Present-Day China And The Making Of The Chinataiwan
Crisis.
After a year of canceled concerts, closed-door sporting events, and
restricted air travel, vaccine passports are being touted as a way to
quicken the route back to normalcy. But as explained, there are still some
open questions including some reasons for concern. Papers, Please, And Then:
Based on the invention of Erich von Däniken, whose origins we will
explore, with on the side some remnants of the theories by neo-Nazi's like
Ernst Zundel, Wilhelm Landig, and Rudolf J. Mund, who argued that Nazis
invented flying saucers had taken their breakthrough technology to bases
deep under the South Pole, the American History Channel has a series titled
"Ancient Aliens" that claims to explore the controversial theory
that extraterrestrials have visited Earth for millions of years from the
age of the dinosaurs to ancient Egypt and present what as we will see can
best be described as a sensationalized bricolage. Secret Nazis And The Return Of The Ancient
Aliens.
Following the heated debate during the US-China Alaska meeting,
President Joe Biden got a taste of what the next four years may look like:
a new era of bitter superpower competition with China since it opened
diplomatic relations with the United States. This is also where Japanese
and U.S. defense chiefs agreed in their meeting last week to cooperate in
the event of a military clash between China and Taiwan closely. Making it
time for us to continue our multi-article, the purpose of this is too to
understand potentially could lead to a futures second pacific war if China
follows up on its threats to attack Taiwan with as a purpose to take
control of what China terms the South China Sea. Part Four Can A Potential Future
Pacific War Be Avoided?
Efforts to dislodge stuck Suez Canal ship with tug boats suspended till
today with authorities cannot predict when it may be dislodged.
On Saturday, China and Iran, both subject to U.S. sanctions,
signed a 25-year cooperation agreement. The deal is expected to
increase bilateral trade and military cooperation as US rivals move to
deepen ties. As we will point out, this does not come as a surprise as this
relationship goes back many years. The Enduring Relationship Between
China And Iran.
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At the heart of the conflict between the United States and Japan
during the 1930s was the importance of two competing ideologies of
world order, liberal internationalism and Pan-Asianist regionalism. From
the Manchurian crisis of 1931 up through fruitless negotiations in the fall
of 1941 discord consistently turned on basic principles about world governance,
tied to rising geopolitical stakes. This also includes the American
reception of the Japanese government's efforts to shape American public
opinion in the 1930s through a vigorous program of cultural diplomacy. By
tapping the empire’s cultural riches or “soft power.” Japan’s leaders hoped
to combat negative perceptions in the United States and legitimize their
regionalist aspirations on the continent. Part Five Can A Potential Future Pacific
War Be Avoided?
Chinese military aircraft simulated missile attacks on a US
aircraft carrier during an incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone three
days after Joe Biden’s inauguration, according to intelligence from the US
and its allies.The revelations highlight that the intense military
competition between the two superpowers around Taiwan and the South China
Sea has not eased, posing a challenge to any attempts the Biden
administration might make to improve US relations with Beijing. Part Six Can A Potential Future
Pacific War Be Avoided?
Because so many people in Myanmar supported the military's 2017
slaughter of Rohingya, the generals seem to have concluded that they can
get away with shooting people in Myanmar whom they don't like, such as
pro-democracy protesters. Only concerted pressure can get the
generals to talk to the civilians and thereby put Myanmar onto a less
ruinous path. The alternative is a failed state at the heart of Asia. What Next With Myanmar.
Yesterday Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the island will
defend itself "to the very last day" if attacked by China. While
yesterday the U.S. blacklists seven Chinese supercomputing entities
citing national security concerns. Accidental war and territorial
sovereignty. Part
Seven Can A Potential Future Pacific War Be Avoided?
Last week, UNESCO commemorated the Rwandan genocide against the
Tutsis. 27 years ago the Rwandan genocide erupted following the plane
crash of then-President Juvenal Habyarimana. For the next 100 days, armed
militias engaged in a killing spree against the ethnic minority Tutsis and
moderate Hutus. In total, some 800,000 people died. The French, who were
allies of the Hutu government under Habyarimana, had sent a special force
to evacuate their citizens and set up safe zones. Although they witnessed
the horror all around them, to this day, they are accused of having done
very little to stop the killing. Major Case Study. Investigating The Real Story Behind The Rwandan Genocide Against The
Tutsis.
Context is as important for Artificial Intelligence(AI) as it is
for people. Just like people need to orient when looking for answers (you
don’t look for iPhone solutions in a car repair manual), AI's data source
requires curation and context. For sure is, data governance is more
important than ever. What data is owned by the organization? What can be
done with it? What are the data sources, and how is it being consumed or
translated by other systems and processes? How well is data being leveraged
to produce value for the enterprise and the customer? How can data issues
be addressed and remediated? Dismantling The Myths Of AI.
Enchanted determinism explains newspaper headlines such as ‘Can
algorithms prevent suicide?’ or ‘can AI read emotions?’ Nobody has come
close to such remarkable results, yet the dream that a machine can read
emotions or stop people from ending their life is stronger than ever. These
illusions distract from the far more relevant questions: Whom do these
systems serve? What are the political economies of their construction? And
what are the wider planetary consequences? In part two of dismantling
Artificial Intelligence's myths (AI), we look, among others at, the new
Mappa Mundi? AI, the Myth of Clean Tech, AI and algorithmic exceptionalism,
games without frontiers, facial recognition, and language prediction. Dismantling The Myths
Of AI Part Two.
Following is an analysis of positive thinking, self-help, and
certain strands of modern Psychology. As we will see some psychologists see
the present limitations of their field clearly. We also indicate how an
ascendant power elite defined by the concurrent drives to do well and do
good, to change the world while also profiting from the status quo. It
consists of enlightened businesspeople and their collaborators in the
worlds of charity, academia, media, government, and think tanks. So What Is With Psychological Science?
After the ‘sofa-gate’ incident in the EU, President Biden is now
posed to be the first US President who dares to use the genocide word in
reference to the systematic annihilation of Armenians. We explain; Why, And What Happened.
US Threat Perceptions:
Source: Office of the
Director of National Intelligence
Where until last
month, the danger that China could attack Taiwan and risk a war with the US
was mainly the daily talk in the Pacific region and the US, however,
following the news that the UK is sending its largest Carrier Strike
Group since the Falklands War to the Taiwan Strait and the South China
Sea it now also is the talk in Europe with even Angela Merkel expressing
her concern. Fact is, the prospects for war are actually higher in the next
five years than the period thereafter because of how successfully China has
closed the military capability gap with the US. Every day President Xi
Jinping delays, his potential adversaries in a battle over Taiwan (which
would undoubtedly include the US, Japan, Australia, and the UK) are
investing enormous effort to prepare for war and once again expand the
capability gap. So we proceeded with the conclusion of our question: Can
A Potential Future Pacific War Be Avoided?
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Today the World Health Organization has warned against “vaccine
nationalism,” cautioning richer countries that if they keep treatments to
themselves they cannot expect to remain safe if poor nations remain
exposed. It is no secret that Scientists fear that the
current pandemic could lead to a geopolitical fight over vaccines. And that
‘vaccine nationalism’ threatens the global plan to distribute COVID-19
shots fairly. But there are also other approaches. Vaccine Nationalism And Its
Alternatives.
Beirut explosion: Angry protesters take to streets.
Tonight, Lebanon's government stepped down, less than a week after
a massive explosion in Beirut killed more than 160 people and sparked days
of violent protests.
People wash their clothes as Mount Sinabung in Indonesia spews ash:
World Population Projections.
Minsk, Belarus:
The economy of Colonialism: Major Case Study: Part
One, Part
Two, Part
Three.
Replica of planet earth using NASA imagery goes on display in the Painted
Hall of the Old Royal Naval College, Greenwich.
Unsealed Archives Give Fresh Clues to Pope Pius XII’s Response to
the Holocaust Several documents that have emerged from the newly opened
Vatican Archives on the papacy of Pius XII bolster accusations of
indifference to Jewish suffering. Still some scholars say the whole picture
has yet to emerge. Major
Case Study: The
Vatican Archives And World War II.
This week, Indian troops moved firmly and preemptively to stop
China’s new attempt at land grabs. China’s People’s Liberation Army was
getting active in areas south of the strategically important Pangong Lake.
But Indians took the heights near Rezang La and Requin La, allowing them an unfettered view of a critical
garrison inside China. The operation was led by India’s covert
Special Frontier Force, mostly from Tibetans whose families escaped
Chinese oppression.
Two Myanmar soldiers have admitted on video to the mass killing and
rape of Rohingya Muslims in 2017. The video confessions
of the two deserters were filmed by a rebel group fighting the Myanmar
military and deemed credible by a human rights group. If the confessions
are legitimate, they will represent the first admissions by members of
Myanmar's military that a campaign of violence against the minority ethnic
group took place in the country's western Rakhine State. The two soldiers
are believed to now be in the Hague at the International Criminal Court,
where an investigation into the Rohingya crisis is underway. As for now,
there is no apparent end to the ongoing tragedy that faces the Muslim Rohingya communities of
western Myanmar.
Nevertheless, with crucial national elections scheduled for
November 2020 and an economy battered by the global COVID-19 shutdown,
Myanmar faces a confluence of grave challenges. Under these conditions,
critical decision-makers in Naypyitaw may hope that international scrutiny
of violence against the Rohingya will fade. Given these court actions,
however, this is unlikely. She will not recover her reputation whatever
sympathy we may have for Aung San Suu Kyi’s predicament. And she will
forever face hard questions about her inability to prevent, and, more
importantly, refusal to condemn, ethnic cleansing.
We published an extensive five-part study of Russian Freemasonry;
we now like to revisit our earlier topic of Freemasonry during the fascist
era. Nazi Policy on Masons became unequivocal after the Night of the Long
Knives – the savage purge of the SA and other political enemies. After
that, the SS assumed control of the Masonic Question. And in the spring of
1935, the former Masonic organizations were told to dissolve themselves
completely or be forced to do so. Yet, we also will see how and why Hitler toned
down his initial anti-masonic rhetoric. Major Case Study: Freemasonry During The Nazi
State.
Having highlighted Nazi-Germany, we next move on to Spain, where
there was a belief, shared by all the different forces on the Nationalist
side, that a conspiratorial Masonic influence permeated the Republic so
thoroughly that almost anyone could be an instrument of the Lodges. An
intriguing part of this history, as we will see, is a spy network known as
APIS, which transmitted dozens of fake Masonic documents. One can safely
say that APIS was the espionage equivalent of the excellent Taxil hoax
of the late nineteenth century. Major Case Study: The War Against Freemasons In Spain.
A sense of history has always been crucial to Freemasonry. But as
we have seen all too often, the Masons have squeezed their history into
rosy identity narratives. Freemasonry’s past is as chequered as a
Lodge floor. Hence in part one, we saw how Hitler toned down his initial
anti-masonic rhetoric to focus primarily on his Jewish conspiracy theory,
whereby in Catholic Spain, Fascists were less restrained. In this third
part, now we come to our present era with, among others, Stephen Knight claims
about a Masonic conspiracy, activities like those of the Ndrangheta,
when as recently as four weeks ago, $193m in assets were seized, Dan
Brown's masonic musings in The Lost Symbol, including the role of
Freemasonry in British India and the little, researched influence on Indian
Nationalism. Major Case Study: Investigating
Freemasonry Today.
With or without a vaccine, the coronavirus will remain part of life
well into next year. Alas, as I show in the article, some governments
(including America’s and Britain’s) have been ruining the job. As illness,
death, and disruption are terrible in rich countries, COVID-19 costs poor
ones even more. Why Governments Get COVID-19 Wrong.
An Armenian soldier fires artillery during fighting with Azerbaijan’s
forces this while a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down an Armenian warplane
as fighting intensified near the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region and
fears grew of an outbreak of a new, full-scale war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan:
The United Kingdom and Canada have imposed travel bans and asset
freezes on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, his son, and other
senior officials while French President Emmanuel Macron called for a
"peaceful transition" in the country after he met the exiled
opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Lithuania on Tuesday. President
Macron also visited a military base with Lithuania's president on Tuesday:
The last quarter of 2020 furthermore will be among others a waiting
game -- like for example waiting for the results of the U.S. election in
November, waiting on economic numbers, and waiting to see how the COVID-19
crisis plays out.
President Trump was taken to Walter Reed hospital out of caution
after testing positive for Covid-19. At least seven people, including two
U.S. senators, who had attended Saturday’s Rose Garden ceremony announcing
Amy Coney Barrett as President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee have since
tested positive for the coronavirus. The White House on Saturday created a
startling amount of confusion on the timing of President Trump’s
coronavirus diagnosis and the status of his health through conflicting
statements, injecting an extraordinary degree of uncertainty into the
nation’s understanding of the president’s condition and who may have been
exposed to the deadly virus.
President Trump said he will not participate in the
next presidential debate with Joe Biden after the commission said it will
be held virtually. The Biden campaign rejected Trump's demand to delay
the next two debates. Whereby the other news in the US was that thirteen
people were charged Thursday in an alleged domestic terrorism plot to
kidnap Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, federal and state
officials announced.
Will we ever know the true toll that the coronavirus pandemic has
taken on the globe? We have the tally provided by Johns Hopkins, but there
is no way we can truly know how accurate the numbers are. This is
especially the case in countries in which the numbers are manipulated to
downplay the seriousness of the pandemic.
-The 2020 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to the United Nations
World Food Programme. “In the face of the pandemic, the World Food Program
has demonstrated an impressive ability to intensify its efforts,” Berit
Reiss-Andersen, the chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, said as she announced
the prize in Oslo.
-'The president is likely toast': Trump's woes raise GOP fears of a blue wave.
-More than 200 people have already been killed in fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, a
disputed enclave populated largely by (Christian) Armenians that broke away
from (Muslim) Azerbaijan as the Soviet Union collapsed. Armenia supported
it during a war that killed tens of thousands of people. America and Russia
helped bring about the ceasefire in 1994. But America has almost entirely
abandoned the long, thankless slog of routine peace maintenance. In a world
where the democratic superpower is resentful, consumed
and distracted, averting wars is far harder. That is one
reason why a recent rise in tension in the Taiwan Strait is
causing alarm. Few expect an imminent Chinese invasion. But America’s
commitment to the defense of Taiwan cannot be guaranteed.
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Trump’s last-ditch efforts to overturn results so far have failed
to make a dent in Biden's victory. With his denial of the outcome, Trump
has endangered America’s democracy and duped supporters into believing,
perhaps permanently, that Biden was elected illegitimately.
Obama on the cover of In Style Magazine:
The impact of Isaac Newton’s work is, in a word, legendary. The
size of his groundbreaking treatise, known as the Principia, in which
Newton laid out his three laws of motion, was until now thought to be
small, partly reflecting a long-held notion that the book was virtually
incomprehensible outside of a small circle of expert mathematicians. The
volumes cover 27 countries on five continents, including Africa and
Australia with nine copies that showed up in Japan. The astronomer Edmond
Halley took it upon himself to present copies to influential people,
including England’s King James II, Royal Society President Samuel Pepys,
and German polymath Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, who is commonly credited
with co-inventing calculus at the same time as Newton. A copy also likely
went to Christopher Wren, the architect of St. Paul’s Cathedral in London.
In a soon to be
published book written by Tonio Andrade "The Last
Embassy" tells the story of the Dutch mission of 1795, bringing to
light a dramatic but little-known episode that transforms our understanding
of the history of China and the West.
One challenge
created by all of this psychological diversity is that we generally see and
understand the world through our own cultural models and local intuitions.
When policymakers, politicians, and military strategists infer how people
in other societies will understand their actions, judge their behavior, and
respond, they tend to assume perceptions, motivations, and judgments
similar to their own. However, even when implemented perfectly, policies
can have one effect in London or Zurich and very different effects in
Baghdad or Mogadishu because the people in each of these places are
psychologically distinct. Major
Case Study. Developmental
Forces In East And West As Drivers Of Psychological Change.
Visualizing the Human Impact on the Earth’s Surface
The History Channel has a series titled "Ancient Aliens"
that claims to explore the controversial theory that extraterrestrials have
visited Earth for millions of years from the dinosaurs' age to ancient
Egypt and present what, as we will see, can be described as a
sensationalized bricolage. Investigating The Ancient Aliens
Theory.
The pandemic has reshaped expectations of higher education - but
it’s also created an opportunity for institutions to accelerate their
digital transformation. By providing more wellbeing resources, career
support, and flexibility, universities can drive trust and support their
students’ needs in the new normal.
Whereby The end of Europe's empires has so often been seen as
a story of high politics and warfare, using the new technology of
cheap printing presses, global travel, and the widespread use of French and
English, young radicals from across Asia were able to communicate in ways
simply not available before. These clandestine networks stretched to the
heart of the imperial metropolises: to London, to Paris, but also
increasingly to Moscow. They created a secret global network that was
for decades engaged in bitter fighting with imperial police forces. They
gathered in the great hubs of empire - Calcutta, Bombay, Singapore, Penang,
Batavia, Hanoi, Shanghai, and Hong Kong - and plotted with ceaseless
ingenuity, both through persuasion and terrorism, the end of the colonial
regimes. Then on 24 July 1924 five at Canton when an unsuccessful
attempt was made on the life of M Martial Henri Merlin, Governor-General of
French Indochina. Major Case Study. Asia's Secret Networks Part One.
The myth of the absence of politics was shared across colonial Asia.
In the Indies, the Dutch called the zaman normal, a return to ‘normal
time’, or rather the pretense of it. Normal time revived the illusion that
colonial governments could dictate political futures. Imperial regimes
never provided an adequate answer to the question as to what precisely was
on offer for colonial subjects who still sought to work within the system
and its laws. The reality was, in most cases, far less than was offered
earlier. Major Case Study. Asia's Secret
Networks Part Two.
China had been thrown into a revolutionary ferment by the
depredations of Western powers beginning with the First Opium War in 1839.
As we have seen there were many grievances against the Qing emperor and the
social structure, as had often been the case in Chinese history, but what
ultimately discredited these entities was their failure to defend China and
their obvious inadequacy compared to the leading powers. While
anti-imperialism was already present therefore in the minds of Chinese
intellectuals, Marxism was nearly nonexistent in China before the popular
movement that began on May 4, 1919. Major Case Study. The
Chinese Nationalist Kuomintang and its unexpected relationship with
Communism: Asia's Secret Networks Part Three.
Very different from the Revolution in Russia the May 4, 1919
protests in China was a Nationalist reaction objecting to the decision
of the victorious Allied powers at the Versailles conference to award
former German possessions in the Shandong Peninsula to Japan. Yet the shock
of defeat at the hands of foreigners had not only ignited nationalist
sentiment it also slowly and fitfully led to a recognition that
fundamental political, and economic changes would be necessary if China
were to survive, let alone compete, in the modern world. The Chinese
Communist Party was founded two years later with even the Nationalist
Kuomintang developing a relationship with the Bolshevists in
Moskau. Major
Case Study. Asia's Secret
Networks Part Four.
The most populous countries in the world are China, India, and the U.S—but
global population trends may be shifting faster than you think:
After Nicholas II of Russia abdicated in 1917 meanwhile, the
world's tempests outside blew directly into the households of Surabaya and Semarang.
On seizing power, Vladimir Lenin had looked to Europe’s working classes to
foster wider revolution. When that hope fizzled, the revolutionary
potential of Asian peasantries, whom Lenin, like the colonialists, had
hitherto deemed backward, was reassessed. Asian radicals were now summoned
to Moscow. Major
Case Study. Asia's
Secret Networks Part Five.
In 1902, Japan allied with Britain in East Asia, and now events
drew her closer to France. A series of sensationalist reports in the Écho
de Paris in January 1905, headlined ‘The Yellow Peril,’ claimed that Japan
planned to use Taiwan, now also a colony of Japan, as a base to attack the
French in Indochina. By strange osmosis of animosity and opportunism, Japan
responded by strengthening ties with France. A Franco-Japanese Treaty was
signed in 1907, and the French immediately used it to pressure on Japan’s Vietnamese
émigrés. As the Governor-General of Indochina explained it to the minister
of the colonies in Paris in July 1908, the people of Vietnam could not be
indifferent ‘to the events occurring in this theatre of nations’ when their
country, because of its long border with Siam, rail links to China and sea
lanes to the ports of China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, lay in the middle
of ‘the great Far Eastern highway.’ Major
Case Study. Asia's Secret Networks Part Six.
In June 1919, a petition circulated among delegates to the peace
conference at Versailles. The “Demands of the Annamite People” claimed to
speak for the inhabitants of the part of French Indochina that is today the
heart of Vietnam. “Nguyen the Patriot” (today better known as Ho Chi
Minh) was in some way important. They were to maintain that conviction for
more than three decades. Briefly, Nguyen Ai Quoc would break cover, for
instance, to address political meetings in Paris, scruffily dressed. Yet
the expanding secret-police files on him reflected official frustration. He
lied about his age, name, origins, and profession. He changed his accent to
suit. Time and again, Nguyen Ai Quoc slipped like quicksilver through the
fingers of imperial powers. His shadow was found in libraries, cafés, and
boarding houses across France, in port cities such as Singapore and New
York, and even in the London suburb of Ealing; one rumor had him as a
pastry chef under the great Escoffier. His writings surfaced in illicit
journals in China and Korea. But just when the Sûreté Générale picked up
his scent again, he was gone. Major Case Study. Asia's
Secret Networks Part Seven.
Xiang Jingyu, head of the Women’s Bureau of the Chinese Communist
Party, was executed by the Kuomintang in Hankou, 1928.
A recent article asked will the COVID-19 vaccine bet in China pay
off? An emergency use authorization, based on China’s Vaccine
Management Law, allows the use of unapproved vaccine candidates among
people at high risk of infection for a limited period of time. Chinese
Vaccine And Patriotic Drive.
Transnational Asia was without borders. The opening of the Suez
Canal in 1867 brought the west dramatically closer. Asia's wealth,
goods, and styles had never been more accessible to the European public. It
was a time of great ‘universal’ expositions – Paris in 1900, Brussels in
1910, the Festival of Empire in London in 1911 – which brought in colonial
products, and even imperial subjects, as objects of curiosity. The London
extravaganza of 1911 – together with the Imperial Institute in South Kensington,
imperial-themed clubs, museums and monuments, and the Imperial College of
Science and Technology – marked the crescendo of attempts to fashion London
into a city that better reflected its world-encompassing status. It was
certainly a lure to its new colonial subjects. This was still a world of
circulating monarchs, and Indian and Malay princes gravitated to the courts
of Europe and took the waters at their aristocratic playgrounds, in a
reprise of the old Grand Tour. Major
Case Study. Asia's
Secret Networks Part Eight.
Europe's first wave vs its second wave. Notice for
example Slovakia initially was a poster boy of successfully dealing
with the virus but then recently had to declare a national state of
emergency. Similarly in Slovenia.
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We
are mapping the world’s urban population, on the left, the year 2018 on the
right is 2050.
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