Geopolitical Diary

 

2 May, 2014: Economic impact of losing control of parts of eastern Ukraine may ultimately be the cause of a rift within the Ukrainian government.

 

1 May, 2014: Russia may soon cast its gaze beyond eastern Ukraine to the strategic port city of Odessa.

 

20 Jan., 2012: A Turning Point in Syria (with rebel Free Syria Army supply line map):

 

26 Nov., 2011: Prospects for Intervention in Syria.

 

12 October, 2011: Alleged  plot to kill the Saudi envoy and the Iranian Navy’s 16th fleet of warships as a thorn in Washington’s eye.

 

15 September, 2011:  Seeking an easy target to project power in its region, Ankara may have miscalculated in heating up its rhetoric against Greek Cyprus.  Rumblings of war in eastern Mediterranean

 

August 19, 2011: Rebel fighters advancing toward Tripoli.

 

1 Jan. 2011: The World in 2011, the Next Month Out.

25 Oct., 2010: Afghan President Hamid Karzai openly admitted today that his office has received millions of dollars in financial aid from Iran for several years. What Next in Afghanistan?

17 Nov 2010: Probable Shakeup of Russian Spy Agencies Following Extradition of Viktor Bout.

 

1 Dec. 2010: The IranLeaks

 

7 Febr. 2011: What next with Egypt P.2: Focusing on the Opposition.

 

14 Febr. 2011: What Next In the Middle East?

 

22 Febr. 2011: Will China be Next?

 

28 Febr. 2011: The Upcoming Persian Gulf Crises.

 

14 March 2011: Gulf states send force to Bahrain following protests. In the case of Bahrain, Iran does not appear to be limited in covert assets, but has a broader strategic dilemma to consider in determining its next moves however.

 

29 March 2011: Where we looked at some of the reasons for intervention in Libya in the case of France and the U.K., today we do the same in the case of Italy. Also an analyses of the current situation on the ground plus what would happen if the rebels were armed by coalition forces now (with maps). Continue…

 

30 March 2011:  Until 4 May I will be in the Pacific Rim area, followed by a fact finding mission in the Middle East including Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

 

May 5, 2011: The reason for Pakistani finally decided on the collaboration of  the attack leading to the death of bin Laden, and the US attempts in this case of separating the extremists from the moderates? Plus what is next with Syria, continue:

 

May 12, 2011: Saudi’s and Iran at loggerheads in Syria and Yemen, most likely president Barack Obama stepping in to denounce the Syrian president.

 

May 19, 2011: Libya's rebel commanders are in advanced secret negotiations with Qaddafi's military chiefs. Saudi Arabia to replace the League. And Moscow adopts anti-US forces in the Mid East, Persian Gulf and N. Africa. Continue…

 

May 26, 2011: New Saudi-controlled republic in S. Yemen, and Obama turns down UK Libya-Afghanistan trade.

 

June 9, 2011: Yemen, Syria and Libya.

 

June 16, 2011: Syria and Lybia.

 

1 Jan. 2011: The World in 2011

 

1 Dec. 2010: The IranLeaks

 

17 Nov 2010: Probable Shakeup of Russian Spy Agencies Following Extradition of Viktor Bout.

 

25 Oct., 2010: Afghan President Hamid Karzai openly admitted today that his office has received millions of dollars in financial aid from Iran for several years. What Next in Afghanistan?

 

Jan. 23, 2010: Rumors out of Washington have it that the article in Newsweek by Richard Haass yesterday reflects President Obama's thinking on Iran. War rumors again, ore a US understanding with Iran?

 

30 Sept., 2010: By now it is evident that Iran's nuclear program is partly paralyzed by the invasion of the powerfully malignant Stuxnet software. But are the inventors of Stuxnet who planted it in Iran are still in control of the destructive malworm?

 

17 Sept., 2010: Pakistan using the latest Kashmir unrest in a bid to undermine Indian control of its section of the disputed region.

 

10 Sept., 2010: Afghanistan: US-dominated North and a Taliban-ruled South?

 

4 May, 2010: Obama’s Afghan war strategy change following Times Square bombing attempt. And the blanks in the bombing episode. Continue…

 

29 June, 2010:  The news cycle yesterday was dominated by reports of Israel and the United States preparing to conduct an air campaign against Iran. Continue…

 

23 April, 2010: Eurozone’s Debt crisis no longer just about Greece. Continue…

 

17 April, 2010:  US/Israel Redefining the Iran Problem.

 

10 April, 2010: While it will have little effect on the permission for the US to have a transit bases there, it is clear from the April 7 revolution in Kyrgyzstan, that Russia is capable of creating “color revolution”-style uprisings in countries where it wants to increase its influence. And why China might be concerned, plus Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, The Baltic States. Continue:

 

9 March, 2010: Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan:

 

14 Febr, 2010: Some 6,000 U.S. Marines, soldiers and Afghan National Army (ANA) troops launched a sustained assault on the town of Marjah in S.Afghanistan. Far from a monolithic movement however, the term “Taliban” encompasses everything from old hard-liners of the pre-9/11 Afghan regime to small groups that adopt the name as a ‘flag of convenience’. Plus the Afghan-Pakistani border is an unnatural political overlay on a fragmented landscape that is virtually impossible for a central government to control. Geostrategic Predicament of the War in Afghanistan:

 

Jan. 2, 2010: US President Barack Obama for the first time publicly accused an offshoot of al-Qaeda over the Christmas Day bomb plot to blow up a US plane. While Osama bin Laden and his close associates are losing in direct influence, as long as the ideology of jihadism survives, they will be able to recruit new militants and their war continue. This battle will oscillate between periods of high and low intensity as regional groups rise in power and are taken down.

 

Dec. 11, 2009: The US making Baluchistan a key focus might indicate this is where Osama bin Laden currently is. Continue:

 

Dec. 2, 2009: With U.S. President Barack Obama’s announcement of his strategy in Afghanistan yesterday evening, the U.S.- has decided to increase its focus on the Afghan war while continuing to withdraw from Iraq. But only finding a way to alleviate Pashtun frustration in Afghanistan and getting Pakistan to give up its decades-old policy of supporting Islamists in power there will change anything fundamental. Continue…

 

Oct. 10, 2009: Having mentioned this more than a year ago, the BBC today now confirms that Turkey and Armenia are preparing to sign a historic agreement normalizing relations.

 

11 Sept 2009: Does it matter whether bin Laden is found?

 

25 July 2009: China Today.

17 July 2009:  Jemaah Islamiah is most likely behind the fatal blasts in two Jakarta hotels today. Jemaah Islamiah and Global Jihad.

June 23, 2009: Drawing attention to the upcoming elections on March 1, we posted a historical and sociological overview about Iran. Following the announcement of the 12 June election results, major street protests took place. What Next In Iran.

 

April 11, 2009: Thailand declares emergency, cancels Asian summit. Broader Implications.

Febr. 24, 2009: Iran and the Protest in Saudi-Arabia Today. The Shi’ite-Suni Devide.

Febr. 20, 2009: The United States was given unofficial approval from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan for the transit of non-lethal supplies to U.S. troops in Afghanistan Agence France-Presse reported.

Febr. 18, 2009: With the landmark Khmer Rouge show trial that started yesterday we investigated: The Paranoid Thruth of Khmer Rouge Terror.

Febr. 17, 2009:  Suggested by us on Febr.5: Russia is hinting that it could throw Iran under the bus, but is waiting to see what kind of a deal Secretary of State Clinton offers when she meets with Deputy Foreign Minister Lavrov in Geneva. Continue...

Febr. 6, 2009:  The New US Administration and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Jan. 10, 2009: The Problems with Israel and Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel.

Jan. 7, 2009: The Problems with Israel and Palestine P2: Geostrategy of the Palestinians.

Jan. 7, 2009: As expected Russia today upped the stakes shutting off natural gas to the Ukraine and thereby also Europe. Europe to Start Accommodation.

Jan. 5, 2009: Having already commented on the Israeli military incursion into the Gaza Strip which grabbed the headlines this week, we investigated P1:  Geostrategy of Israel.

Jan. 4, 2009: As suggested by us earlier, an Israeli groundincursion has now taken place and is rapidly moving southwards today. And now Iran?

Dec. 16, 2008: Case Study Indian Subcontinent Today P.3 of 3: The Pakistan/India Military Imbalance.

Dec. 14, 2008: Case Study Indian Subcontinent Today P.2 of 3: Kashmiri Groups Cut Loose.

Dec. 12, 2008: While so far we have seen New Delhi threaten to take action, with nothing measurable that could be convincingly described as preparation for a war. We however, still expect actions that  take the form of unilateral precision strikes inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir along with special-forces action on ground. In this context we have prepared a case study about the current Geostrategic environment. Case Study Indian Subcontinent Today P.1 of 3:  From Geography to Crisis in Indian-Pakistani Relations.

Dec. 7, 2008: Following a conference on Oct. 25  it is expected that Ruthenians, supported by Russia, will declare independence from Ukraine during the first quarter of 2009. Yet Ruthenian secession also holds strategic importance for Slovakia Poland and Romania. Enter for Case Study:

Dec. 3, 2008: The Intelligence War Behind The Mumbai Siege and India’s Military Option Today.

Dec. 2, 2008: Will the United States be able to rein in the Indians? The Upcoming Rice/ New Delhi Visit.

Nov. 26, 2008: Following an earlier comment by us, the FBI warned that Al Qaeda may be targeting New York's subways and railroads. Continue...

Nov. 18, 2008: Taliban threatened to strike in Paris

Nov. 13, 2008: Iceland: A Sign of Things to Come?

Nov. 5, 2008: Barack Obama, having won the election, will now have to face a range of foreign policy issues that will challenge his ideology and policies, and where his personality will matter little. He will be dealing with people like Vladimir Putin, Hu Jintao and Angela Merkel, none of whom are swayed by charisma and all of whom govern countries with interests very different than those of the United States.

Nov. 4, 2008: With US Election Day tomorrow, there has been a notable silence from al Qaeda. This might be due to the frequency of airstrikes carried out by drones in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, scoring hits against al Qaeda members and managers in the process. These strikes have made it more difficult for al Qaeda leaders to move around and interact with each other.

Nov. 2, 2008: As the U.S. election approaches, countries around the world are watching. However, most will ultimately be disappointed with whoever wins, since the world’s perceptions are based on the assumption that the U.S. president can somehow ameliorate or deteriorate the relationship between the United States and another country on his own accord.

Oct. 17, 2008: Following an assessment of Europe and East Asia, we turn our sights to Latin America. As a region that has been relatively isolated from the immediate effects of the collapse of international financial sectors, a significant slowdown is to be expected. Continue...

Oct. 15, 2008: Geopolitical and strategic consequences exemplified by Central Asia, the Persian Gulf, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Middle East, S. America today.  An Assessment:

Oct. 15, 2008: The Financial Crisis in Asia: China and Japan

Oct. 14, 2008: Where today saw the end of a Khmer Rouge trial, early 2009 will see the high level trial of chief interrogator Kaing Guek Eav, also known as Duch. And while the reason for the genocidal craze remained a mystery to date, we investigated and discovered the utopian longings and delusions of lost or stolen grandeur combined with delusions of persecution along with virulent conspiracy theories. The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror.

Oct. 13, 2008: Both Europe and the United States are now in a race against time. But because the underlying reason for Europe’s vulnerability is not rooted  in the U.S. subprime as most people think, regionalized and interconnected weaknesses are much broader and deeper. Europe Looming Financial Crises: The Make and Break Countries.

Oct. 8, 2008: While the US bailout plan could mark the beginning of the end of the crisis for the United States, the American credit crunch is only the beginning of the story for the world’s other two major economic pillars: Europe and Japan.  What can be Done:

Oct. 7, 2008: A country soon to collapse, Russia's Geostrategic loan to Iceland. Plus the world's central banks and governments will soon be running out of ammo in the face of a financial crisis that has been intensifying by the hour. Enter for the countries that will survive the credit crunch:

 

Sept. 25, 2008: Case Study: A Modern History of Burma.

 

Sept. 24, 2008: Burma blast as anniversary looms.

Sept. 15, 2008: Following our exclusive worldwide overview of Radical Islam and Global Jihad, it appears in place now to present an overview of the same for India and Asia. Enter:

 

 

Sept. 14, 2008: Five bomb blasts leave 21 people dead in New Delhi. Attacks claimed by "Indian Mujahadeen" like recent attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur. Media reports said 10 people had been arrested.

 

Sept. 6, 2008: Today Turkey's President Abdullah Gul has made a landmark visit to Armenia. Due to Turkey’s denial of an Armenian genocide, normally such contact would take place. In fact it is only recently that also Germany’s historical role in the Armenian drama is emerging. And one reason why Germany was so complacent in the matter might have been because Wilhelm II hatched a plan where Turkey would be colonized by Germans. Case Study:

August 28, 2008: Communal violence is continuing in the Indian state of Orissa, and since this has been going on for some time we investigated: Why Orissa?

August 20, 2008: Following our case study about the two latest terror attacks in India, it might be of interest to note that Pakistan’s ISI seems not involved. Comment:

August 7, 2008: France has rejected Rwandan claims accusing French officials of playing an active role in the Rwandan genocide of 1994. But what are the real facts? Case Study The French Rwanda File:

July 28, 2008:  After Tuesday's serial explosions in Jaipur, India has again blamed "the foreign hand”. Who and what is behind the latest two attacks in India?

 

Sept. 20, 2008: Truck-bombing of the Marriott hotel in Islamabad today is a warning from Islamic militants to Pakistan's new civilian leadership. The above pictured Al Qaida video released to mark the anniversary of  Sept. 11, 2001,  threatened attacks against Western interests in Pakistan. 2008.World-Journal.net Comment:

Sept. 7, 2008: As for what is happening in regards to Turkey’s overtures to Armenia: Plans have been discussed for the Turkish, Azeri and Armenian foreign ministers to meet. How this came about is:

News reports yesterday that President George Bush had personally approved a plan to attack al Qaeda in its Pakistani border sanctuaries, indicate a manhunt for Bin Laden has now begun.

Sept. 4, 2008: Kurdish-Shiite frictions in Iraq are building up. 2008.World-Journal.net Comment:

Sept. 3, 2008: Dutch newspaper claimed that the US would decide within weeks to attack nuclear plants with unmanned aircraft to avoid endangering air crews. Acknowledging the fact, a senior Iranian military commander argued the next day that it would lead to a new world war. President Sarkozy in turn, is to discus in Damascus today, how to generate conditions that make an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear installations unnecessary. 2008.World-Journal.net Comment:

August 29, 2008: Coming on the heels of Putin’s accusation that the United States pushed Georgia towards war--our contact in Moscow told us that the Kremlin considers to drop troops on the Crimean Peninsula, around the time US Vice President Richard Cheney visits Georgia and Ukraine Sept. 2. 2008.World-Journal.net Comment:

August 12, 2008: Russian president gives orders to halt military action in Georgia, yet Russia masses naval force opposite Georgia’s third sensitive region, Ajaria. Russia however denied having had intentions to overthrow the Georgian president, and that President Bush was misled to believe otherwise. 2008.World-Journal.net Comment:

August 11, 2008: The invasion Georgia today came despite a Russian claim that they had no plans to enter Georgian territory. The overall picture that now emerges (including in the Middle East theater) is:

August 10, 2008: There is talk that the Russians might want a new government in Georgia. 2008.World-Journal.net Comment:

August 9, 2008:  With the events in Georgia, countries from the Baltics to Ukraine to Central Asia will start rethinking just what it means to share a border with Russia.

August 8, 2008: Russia Strikes Georgia, plus the "Oil" factor. 2008.World-Journal.net Comment:

End of the games, 1,432 days to go for London:

August 4, 2008: While smog still obscures Beijing's stadium an assault kills 16 four days before the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. Case Study The Uigur and Central Asia File.

August 3, 2008: While Iran was defiant on nuclear deadline, visiting Syrian head of  State Assad-- expressed support for the Iranian nuclear program.  Plus more on the strange death of an Assad nuclear confident.

August 1, 2008: While the BBC reported that Pakistan PM has hard time winning over skeptical US--at the core of this is a deepening rift over the war on Taliban and al Qaeda between Washington and the new Islamabad regime.

July 31, 2008: Fearing the loss of US basis there; Iraqi’s Kurds likely on the move before November.

July 30, 2008: But is China’s behavior really that of a country trying to show its best side for the international community, or that of a nation simply concerned about potential terrorist or public relations threats to the Olympic games? China's upcoming economic caveat:

July 29, 2008:  At a news conference on Friday, a Chinese reporter asked furthermore, if there were any recommendations to help Olympic visitors discern the difference between polluted skies and cloudy ones. Plus China rights worsen with Games?

July 25, 2008: Does the Qantas Airways Boeing 747 that made an emergency landing at the international airport in Manila today, show evidence of foul play? The fact that the plane was not totally destroyed does not rule out the possibility that an attack was attempted. Continue...

July 24, 2008: Today Iranian Vice President Reza Aghazadeh said July 24 in Vienna after meeting with Mohamed El-Baradei, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency, that negotiations with world powers on his country’s nuclear program could help solve problems in Lebanon and Iraq, Naharnet reported. Elsewhere, NATO announced that it will not hunt Taliban fighters on Pakistani soil but reserves the right to attack militants there if they attack alliance troops in Afghanistan, NATO chief Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said today, Reuters reported.

July 23, 2009: Details behind the Iran file's bomb revealed. Including Tehran betting on Barack Obama as next US president. And  clash between the US and Iran hovering in sight?

July 22, 2008: Reminder of an old propaganda game, a number of reports from the Russian media have surfaced the last two days about the possibility of Russia deploying bombers or submarines to Cuba.  Comment:

July 14, 2008: Today the BBC reported Pakistan fears over US air raids. In fact there is, a Western military buildup in Afghanistan along the border with Pakistan. The United States however, has neither the troops nor the legal authority to attempt to command the ground in-- much less reconstruct -- Pakistani territory. Nevertheless there will be repercussions which remain to be watched. Area View:

On July 11 the English language website of Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq al-Awsat quoted an unnamed Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) official as saying that the United States will not inform GCC states of any details regarding a possible military strike against Iran but that U.S. logistical preparedness in the region was still at a normal level. In turn, Israeli officials on July 11 denied a Jerusalem Post report claiming that Israeli warplanes have been using U.S. airbases in Iraq and conducting maneuvers there to prepare a possible strike against Iran. Government spokesman Mark Regev told Bloomberg News that the report – which originated in the Iraqi press and was recirculated by numerous other media – was “erroneous,” adding that Israel has no hostile intentions toward Iran...

July 9, 2008: Iran tested a series of missiles during military exercises today. Thus further to the July 1 worldview for the next three months, a brief update about the alleged Israeli strike against Iran. For one, the Bush administration does not want to exercise its military option against Iran; neither has Israel made any final decisions on a timeline for an attack, and is instead looking at striking Iran’s Middle East surrogates: Hizballah in Lebanon and the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.   Continue...

July 3, 2008:  Containing some new insights as to the German plans for WWI, is the soon to be released "Schienen für den Sultan” by Wolfgang Korn. It details how when  Wilhelm II called for a Muslim Jihad against the British, the German Kaiser in fact counting on its demise --planned on populating the Osman Empire with Germans-- hence the new German railroad to Bagdad. See also:

July 1, 2008: Intend as an update to P.1 and P.2 the following is how we see worldwide developments during the next three months. Continue...

June 19, 2007: A report leaked by US government officials of an Israeli air force drill over Greece for an apparent strike against Iran, triggered an oil price surge of 5 percent to $135.92.This upward trend is likely to continue with two initial opinions dominating the analyst scene: 1) If they wanted to really attack, they would shut up and do it. 2) Hitting Iran fast, taking the hit and then calming the markets by showing that the Iranians can’t disrupt tanker traffic makes more sense than creating unknowns. Continue...

Note Febr. 26, 2008: Coming full circle what the Bush administration concerns, the U.S-Russian tug-of-war over India is now in full swing. Comment.

Note Febr. 25, 2008: Today Russia announced  the idea for the mainly Serbian region of northern Kosovo breaking away from Kosovo and rejoining Serbia proper if the region wishes. Comment:

Febr. 22, 2008: What Next With Kosovo?

Intelligence Update Febr. 21, 2008: Middle East Gamble.

Note Febr. 19, 2008: What Next With Kosovo.

Note Febr. 18, 2008: While Iran once more vowed Israels’s Demise today, is  Hezbollah gearing up for a new attack ?  Comment.

Note Febr. 7, 2008: While  Turkey's parliament  voted for  headscarves at Universities, Turkish police uncovered a plot to assassinate the Turkish Prime Minister. Comment.

Note Febr. 6, 2008: The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan jihadist coalition today said it would halt attacks against Pakistani security forces. But like we explained earlier, the cease-fire is not likely to last long.

Note Jan. 31, 2008: South Korean and U.S. officials met on Wednesday to discuss ways to rebuild momentum in the stalled six-party process to denuclearize North Korea. Comment.

January 30, 2008: Kosovo plans to declare independence from Serbia, with Western backing, by Feb. 10. EU Foreign Policy Comment.

Note January 29, 2008: Bush Says 20,000 Troops To Return From Iraq. Comment.

Note Jan. 27, 2008: Following a bomb in Beirut as part of an effort to step up an anti-government campaign, todays riots further will play in the hand of Syrian covert plans. Comment.

Jan. 24, 2008: Hamas de-facto took over a strip of Egypt under the cover of  sending  thousands of civilians shopping across the border. Egypt in turn, must maintain a stable relationship with Hamas for fear of inciting the Muslim Brotherhood within its own borders.Exclusive: The Hamas File.

Note Jan. 21, 2008: Pakistan Unveiled Update.

Note Jan. 20, 2008: Yesterday Russia (Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky on state run TV), said it will use nuclear weapons,"even preventively", to protect itself and its allies. Comment.

Jan. 17, 2008: Important Gulf, Vienna, Washington and Moscow, Intelligence News. Consequences of US Pres. Bush’s visit in the Middle East.

Intelligence Briefing Jan. 10, 2008: Bush in Israel and Beyond P.1 of 2.

Analysis Jan. 9, 2008: Russia's Turf War.

Note Jan. 8, 2008: Bush, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq, and Iran. Comment.

Note Jan. 2, 2008:  Oil Above 100$ Today.

Note Dec. 30, 2007: Eurasia Today.

Note Dec. 27, 2007: Within hours after the Murder of  Pakistan’s Benazir Bhutto was known, Washington gave orders for the below pictured  USS Enterprise to get ready --  for if need be.  Comment.

Dec. 15, 2007: Today an official report confirmed our Dec.6 announcement that Russia is sending warships in the Mediterranean-potentially the strongest Russian naval move in more than a decade. Comment.

Dec. 16, 2007: The Valkyrie Debate. Since filming started, the Valkyrie movie today is stirring a debate in  Germany, why the Catholic nobility like the von Staufenberg's where supporting Hitler, or how this differed from the Protestant support for the Nazi's. For this and more see our extensive report below.

Comment Dec. 17, 2007: As an update to our report from Dec.13,  the Russians said on Monday they have delivered their first fuel shipment to the Iranian power plant at Bushehr. Continue...

Note Dec. 18, 2007: With the appearance of Ahmadinejad in Mecca as seen below it should not come as a surprise that the White House skedualed its own trip to the Middle East. Comment.

Conclusion Dec. 3, 2007

 

 

Note Jan. 6, 2008:  Musharraf and al-Quada Today.

Comment Jan.11, 2007: Al Qaeda Intelligence Update: Bin Laden Found.

Note Jan 14, 2008: The Taliban/Serena Hotel Attack

Nov. 18, 2007: What next with Kosovo?

Nov 24, 2007: Right on the heels of our reference yesterday of al Qaeda's move to among other Pakistan, two suicide bombings struck their today.

Nov 26, 2007: Iran Hitting Back.

Nov 23, 2007: From al Qaeda to Annapolis Today.

Note Dec. 20, 2007: Further negotiations over Kosovo "will not make a difference," the United States and the European Union said in a joint statement yesterday after the U.N. Security Council failed to reach a settlement.

Nov 29, 2007: Today the Serbian government ordered all ministries to prepare plans for “helping the Serb and other non-Albanian populations in Kosovo” should there be a unilateral proclamation of independence. Comment.

Nov 30, 2007: While Olmert warns of 'end of Israel' pro Syrian army chief as new president of Lebanon already fixed.

Dec. 1, 2007: Belgium coalition talks collapse, once more brings “The Belgian Question” to the forefront. Comment.

Lebanon: A New Middeast Crises in the Making?

Pakistan Today

Nov. 23, 2007: The Lebanese government rejected as unconstitutional President Emile Lahoud's decision to hand control of the country's security to the army, Agence France-Presse reported. Continue...

Nov. 8, 2007: While we published at the start of this website that Oil would hit 100$ people now ask us, what about the USD versus Euro. Comment.

Dec. 13, 2007: The Middle East Realignment.

There will be no U.S. attack on Iran.

The Day After: Paris – Germany- Russia.

Nov. 7, 2007: Exclusive: U.S. Preparing Attack On Iran Report P.3.

 Nov. 15, 2007: Exclusive: U.S. Preparing Attack On Iran Report P.4.

Oct. 30, 2007: U.S. preparing attack on Iran Report P.1 of 3.

Oct. 31, 2007: U.S. preparing attack on Iran Report P.2 of 3.

Oct. 25 Comment: What next with Iran?

Turkish helicopter gunships and possibly fixed wing aircraft once more struck at targets in northern Iraq yesterday and today. As previously suggested a large scale invasion wont take place:

 

 

Note Oct. 23, 2007: From Turkey to Ahmadinejad

Oct. 23, 2007: While Turkey is willing to talk in order to let its terms known, it is clear by now that Turkey has become a rgonal force to be reckoned with. However what is coming to the surface now comes directly from Turkey’s Cold War era. Contested Identity: Cold War Turkey

Oct. 24, 2007: A momentary resolution on the PKK issue does not solve the underlying issue for Turkey, the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, which Ankara opposes:

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit Ankara next week, meaning high level negotiations have started with apparently the US willing to join in and figt the PKK -- Turkey has leverage as pointed out. In fact currently the Russians and Iranians are baiting each other while the Americans are sounding out the Russians, and today, the Iranians are entertaining an American offer to negotiate on Iraq. Where all this will develop is of course entirely up in the air.

 

 

Oct. 27, 2007: While the situation remains just as bleak as when we last commented on Oct.25, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported today, that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is willing to present his list of demands (one of these demands has already surfaced earlier) for possible cease fire during a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush on  Nov. 5. Comment.

Note Oct. 22, 2007: President of Iraq is claiming that the PKK is to announce ceasefire this evening, the United States in addition just called on the Iraqi central government today (Oct. 22), to halt Kurdish rebel attacks against Turkey, saying Washington does not want the conflict to broaden.  Turkish troops head toward Iraq. Comment:

Note Oct. 21, 2007: Turkish President Abdullah Gul today is presiding over an emergency Cabinet meeting  which will be attended by the country's top military leaders and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, CNN reported, citing a Turkish government source. The emergency session comes in the wake of an attack by Kurdish rebels on government troops that resulted in the death of at least 12 soldiers near Turkey's border with Iraq and Iran-- with Turkish forces responding to the attack by killing 23 Kurds. Comment:

Note Oct. 20, 2007: Where President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad succeeded in removing Ali Larijani, he next  sent the Revolutionary Guards missile and artillery commander (not reported on BBC), Gen. Mahmoud Chaharbaghshe, to warn that, in the first minute of an attack on Iran, the Islamic Republic would fire 11,000 missiles and mortars against enemy (US and Israeli) bases. The scale of ordnance threatened implied Tehran’s certainty that Syria, Hizballah, Hamas and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq would join the assault. Continue...

Oct. 19, 2007: Following our observation "Pakistan's Security force didn't stop" (the truck), B.Bhutto now accused former army officials of being behind the twin bomb attacks. Since this has not been proven beyond reasonable doubt let us ad for now that...

Sept. 19, 2006: From the UK Financial Times to China, Belgium was in the news today. And although we made a silent suggestion it might have been created along colonial lines, now, a break-up?

Thousends of Iraqi Kurds protest the attack by Turkey, in Duhuk, neear the border with Turkey:

Note Oct. 18, 2007: Pakistan's Security force didn't stop a truck packed with explosives to get directly in front of the car holding returning former President B.Bhutto, resulting in more then 125 dead (our comment follows tomorrow once the dust settles).

Comment Oct. 15, 2007: Like we first referred to in our Turkey forign policy analysises from on Oct.12, a pending resolution before the U.S. Congress that calls the 1915 killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks genocide has brought to light a growing strain in U.S.-Turkish relations. Yet now there is more...

Note Oct. 15, 2007: Last night the BBC and other newsmedia broke the story that Putin has been warned of a plot to assassinate him during a visit to Iran. Yet although there are plenty of Islamist radicals who would like to see Putin dead, they are mostly Sunnis, not Shia. Continue...

Oct. 12, 2007: While along with Turkey's Consumers' Union today asking the country citizens to boycott U.S.-manufactured products, and Turkye’s is recalling its ambassador to Washington, we now take a deeper look at how Ankara’s attitude towars foreign policy came to be Turkey's Contested Foreign Policy P.2: US and Middle East:

Update Oct. 11, 2006: Nuclear-armed Iran not in Russia's interest. Comment.

Update: In line with our suggestion on Oct.5, that we "not believe, at this time, that the bloody and destructive hegemonic wars of yesteryear represent the inevitable fate of the Pacific Rim in the twenty-first century."Chinese President Hu Jintao called for an end to the "state of hostility" between mainland China and Taiwan and a "new phase of peaceful development," while remaining firm that Taiwan will never be independent, according to an advance draft of his opening speech for the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China distributed to the press, Agence France-Presse reported today Oct.15, 2007.

Note Oct. 4, 2006: The mention in our Sept. 26 geopolitical overview "Russia must secure Ukraine" and that in the case of Georgia "Russians will be unpredictable " the writing on the wall for this is now in place. Comment.

Update: U.S. President George W. Bush said on Oct 3 that he would be prepared to negotiate with Iran if it suspended its nuclear weapons program. Comment.

Note P.1 Oct. 16, 2007: As expected (our note Oct. 15) Putin arrived well, with Iran now seeking Russian help fending off new UN sanctions. Comment:

In September (see below left) we mentioned that the Putin visit "could" give the U.S. nightmares. And whereby this was obviously vague, today this has become more transparent (Attack On Iran Is An Attack On Russia), continue...

Reminescent of what happened during the Tianmen square aftermath, in this case, four thousand (4,000) monks detained in Burma's main city of Rangoon, will be sent to prisons in the far north of the country.

The murder of a Japanese reporter triggered speculation that Tokyo could suspend humanitarian aid to the country, while on the same day another report claimed that the military junta destroyed more than 3,000 villages in eastern Burma during a campaign against ethnic Karen rebels--blocking humanitarian assistance to that region. Update Oct.16: Following the EU, Japan is the first country in Asia to take a step that affects the Junta.

 

Note Nov. 5, 2007: The release by the PKK of eight captured Turkish soldiers plus upcoming talks in Washington are bend to avoid a large scale invasion of northern Iraq, even surgical operations pinpointing PKK targets are still inevitable. Comment.

Note Nov. 3, 2007: Following our 'Pakistan Unveiled' from Oct. 6, in an additional move Musharraf has now declared emergency rule. Comment.

Comment Nov. 5, 2007: As expected, larger protests erupted throughout Pakistan on Nov. 5 against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's emergency rule declaration. Continue for map and more...

Note Nov. 6, 2007:  Pakistan's sacked chief justice has called for the people to "rise up" and restore the constitution. Comment.

Having recently commented on Belgium, today images of the Turkish quarter of Brussels flashed trough the newswires exemplified above. Continue...

Note Oct. 25, 2007: Suggested by us on Oct. 23, Turkey today made clear invasion inevitable—while US Congress huridly delays Armenia vote

Note Oct. 26, 2007: Washington sources report the US president George W. Bush is skeptical of the international Middle East peace conference intend on discussing Palestinian Independence and sees little point in the event taking place, so a source close to Bush told.

Comment Oct. 17, 2007: Due to an unwillingness of Arab rulers to put in an appearance US Secretary Rice is advicing  president Bush to postpone the international peace conference regarding Palestine, plus here what will happen to Olmert in Moskau,  continue...

The Dalai Lama has been the top US civilian honour - in a move that has infuriated China.

Introduction Oct. 17, 2007: Tomorrow we will continue with our case study about Turkey. Introducing this today with a comment about the current relationships between Turkey and Syria.

Update Oct. 20, 2007: At the start of this website among its many subjects, we also placed a lecture at the time, suggesting 100$ oil. In fact with oil currently at 90$ we are pretty close to this long term prediction, although at the same time calls for an intermediate comment.

Note Nov. 6, 2007: Istanbul Conference Iranian Proposal

Note Nov. 7, 2007:  Georgia's Instability to Increase.

Note Oct.10, 2007: What Next with Pakistan?

Oct. 10, 2007: Turkey to Invade Iraq Comment:

Marking the birthday of Mahatma Gandhi , 25,000 landless people marched 325km (202 miles) in order to ask for land reform in New Delhi. In fact there is a current crisis in India where hitherto trusted methods of moral enquiry have become sterile. According to a recent WHO report to cite one example, less than 5% of Indian medical schools offer any systematic instruction in Ethics. Luckily there is a trickle of hope now for the landless who whent trough this major effort to draw attention to their plight; met by a promise for a panel to be set up. However giving past experiences, it could take twenty years  before such a panel leads to any conclusions.

Oct. 20, 2007: Identity in Japan.

Oct. 30, 2007: Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah arrives for a controversial visit in the UK today while warning, the fight against Muslim extremism (‘terrorism’ he said) would take 20-30 years. Of couse topic of discussion at Downingstreet will be Iran. The remark about a 20-30 year timeframe, in our opinion confirms the fact that the threat of an Islamist takeover in the Middle East is unrealistic on a long term basis. Because the Islamists' vision of state and society ultimatly is incompatible with today's realities, making it too radical an alternative.

August 26, 2006: Iraq Unveiled

August 27, 2006: Decline of US Power? European/Worldwide View

While the September 7 bin Laden video is a fake, the voice recording is real. Enter for comment:

Overview: The World during October/November 2007

August 26, 2007: An explosion ripped through a crowd watching a laser show at an outdoor amphitheater in the Indian city of Hyderabad on the evening of Aug. 25. At about the same time, a second device detonated in a popular outdoor restaurant in the city. The twin blasts killed at least 42 people and injured about 80. Plus Indian police reportedly recovered as many as 19 unexploded devices of which they detailed two. Case Study: Fundamentalist Violence in Asia+India.

 

August 31, 2007: Azerbaijan finds itself in a pressure cooker as Russia and Iran attempt to redefine their neighborhoods. Comment.

August 31, 2007: President(General)Musharraf will have to concede his position as military chief if he intended to stay on as a civilian president, and will have no choice but to work out a political agreement with Pakistan's opposition parties, specifically Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party. Pakistan Update.

August 25, 2007: A Russian military plane was shot down Aug. 22 over Georgia's Kodori Gorge, Interfax reported Aug. 24, citing two unnamed local residents. The report follows a statement by the Georgian Interior Ministry that a Russian plane was fired upon. Comment.

 

 

Dec. 9, 2006: Then arrests, but no evidence 'al-Quaeda' wanted to murder Pope.

Nov. 18, 2006: To this day, the Turkish government refuses to acknowledge the Armenian genocide. This is strange, since the historical evidence of what happened is plentiful. Spiteful , Turkey on Nov. 16, suspended all military ties with France, a move that should be also seen related to the warning two weeks earlier from the EC. The Armenian genocide however also offers an insight in what continued during WWII:

Nov. 16, 2006: Today following  a breakfast with Putin in Moscow, Bush arrived in Singapore. Thus we ask East is East? Case Study: Singapore's neo-Confusianism. Plus a short overview of the geostrategic dynamic Bush will encounter during his  travels to East Asia.

Nov. 14, 2006:  Playing Dice in Bagdad:
   Update: The severe attack in Bagdad Nov. 23, is tied to the upcoming policy shifts – Sunni insurgent groups and foreign jihadists want to derail whatever hope there is for a resolution.

Nov. 3, 2006: Reported by us more than a week ago, we now can briefly add that the USS Essex ESG and the USS Kitty Hawk, so far, did not move farther than the South China Sea. Although Iran given it is firing its longer ranged missil now, is justifiable concerned. Comment:


US Carrier In Gulf showed on Iranian TV

Oct. 17, 2006: Oceanic Powers: The U.S. Marine Corps will participate in unprecedented exercises with the Sri Lankan navy at the end of October. Update.
 

 

Sept. 6, 2007: Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said today that Damascus is giving serious consideration to to a midnight incident in which an Israeli overflight  into northeastern Syria greeted by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Syria thus can be expected to make much of the incursion in order to hype its air defenses. Comment:

Sept. 2, 2007: Since Oct.27 we have made repeated suggestions the USA is prepairing for an breach into Iran. Now, The Sunday Times reveals the "Pentagon ‘three-day blitz’ plan for Iran."

Update August 30, 2007: We were first to mention, and repeated here, the last Iranian military offensive against  Kurds in Iraq that started on June 8. Finally taking note, yesterday European lawmakers chide Iran for attack on Iraqi Kurds, still ongoing.

Update August 30, 2007: Middle East Update:
Pentagon draws up plans for "three-day blitz" on Iranian military targets.

August 28, 2007: Thoughts of the day and Questions we are Working on:

August 17, 2007: Russia is engaged in a systematic campaign to both reassert its sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union and take advantage of U.S. preoccupation in the Middle East in order to redefine regional relationships.Russia is at a balance point, and Ukraine is the key. If Putin succeeds in pulling Ukraine into the Russian orbit over the course of the next six weeks, then Russia will have secured its core. Comment:

August 15, 2007: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards chief hit back at US plan to list his force as terrorist by declaring on life TV: “Our coast-to-coast missiles can now reach the breadth and length of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea and no warships can pass in the Persian Gulf without being in range of our coast-to-sea missiles.” Apparently he was referring to the new generation shore-to-ship C-802, recently acquired by Iran and supplied to Syria and Hizballah. Comment.

August 4, 2007: Future Wars from the Point of View of America and its Allies.

(A next section will do the same with from the point of view of Europe and its allies, and finally we will return to Asia where of course we just completed an excellent introduction by stating with past, actions, there.)

Update Jan. 25, 2007: Yesterday Jordan’s General Muhammad Zaaby claimed that tens of thousands of Iran’s agents aggressively disseminating the Shiite creed by mass conversions while operating under cover as paramilitary and intelligence networks in half a dozen Arab countries.

Thailand and S.E.Asia Today into 2007.
Two Pictures from The Bangkok Post August 10, 2007. Left: frontpage, small retailers protest the building of a superstore. Right: anti-coup protesters send of arrow messages.

Oct. 16, 2006:  Following our recent report about the Middle East we should add that jihadist groups in northern Iraq are in the process of creating an "emirate," an independent region in the Sunni areas. Also:

Will Iran adopt a more reconciliatory approach , and is al-Qaeda less of a priority for the US, our focus on the world from now till end November.

Where Prime Minister Blair, put the blame for the violence in Iraq on outside forces, a joint Chiefs of Staff Marine admitted that US forces had no plan for Post-Saddam Iraq.

A statement, which comes more than a month after the coup that removed Thaksin based on the former prime minister's alleged corruption, threatens the interim government's legitimacy. More important, it indicates that Sonthi and the ruling military junta are working out an arrangement with Thaksin and his allies.  Comment:

Oct. 10, 2006: Preliminary results of scientific tests appear to confirm that North Korea did carry out a nuclear test last Monday. But:

Elsewhere today, missile fired from a hand-held launcher damaged a mosque in Mostar, Bosnia-Herzegovina. Comment:

Today on Oct.1, 2006 Gen. Surayud Chulanont was appointed as interim prime minister of Thailand. Comment:

 

Sept. 26, 2006: Rumblings of US Foreign Policy

Dinner in The White House. Comment:

From Bill Clinton to 9/11: The enigmas of double agents.

 

Ayman al-Zawahiri cites Khomeini in apparent overture to Hezbollah and Shi'ites as a whole. It is a jihad (holy war) for the sake of God and will last until (our) religion prevails ... from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahri said in a video aired today. "We will attack everywhere." Comment:

While The Wall Street Journal claims that: The Supreme National Security Council of Iran chose the August 22 date, “for a very precise reason.”(1) The ferocity of the latest fighting may signal the ensuing Lebanese political battle, will soon begin. But as this goes, so goes the larger Middle East: Plus, will Aug. 22, 2006, be ‘apocalyptic’? Enter:

In August, the largest Sufi order, the Qadri in Iraq, announced the formation of a militia for fighting the Americans, to be called after its founder the Jihad Brigades of Abd Qader Jiliani. Overview Iraq Today:

 

 

July 28, 2006: While Arab News plays the "Crusade" card: Iranian sources report that Hizballah will start firing its Zelzal missiles at Tel Aviv this weekend. The Secret Palestinian War:

Hizballah knows from long experience to maximizing Lebanese civilian casualties. The Qana Trap.

What North Korea's tests do is highlight the evolution of forces in Asia and the Pacific Region at a time when nationalism at the expense of neighbors is becoming a prevalent political tool. North Korea may be gaining all the press, but it is only the tip of the iceberg. India's ballistic missile program is more robust than North Korea's, and,will have a definete impact on regional, and later global security. A fifth test of the Russia's newest submarine-launched ballistic missile, the SS-NX-30 Bulava, is due before the end of the month. And Beijing, is currently benefiting, as the only voice that can influence North Korea. We investigated this both from a historical, and, a today's point of view:

Today Wednesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the 34-day conflict between Hezbollah and Israel a "victory" for Islam. Following a promise by Bush, French defense minister Michele Alliot-Marie to announced tonight that France is willing to lead a new UN presence in Lebanon at least until February, so long as it has a clear mandate. Comment:

(Intelligence News) Palestine Thursday Evening: The Unlikely Peace-Deal:

Plus today Sunday, Hizballah’s blitz against Israel peaked, killing 15 Israelis, injuring more than 200. Israeli ground troops in the village of Mahbib in southeastern Lebanon uncovered a cache of about 60 mortar shells Aug. 6. And President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday the solution to the Middle East crisis is to destroy Israel. Also Sunday, Hezbollah/Hassan Nasrallah ordered all members of his senior command to go underground, and refuse media interviews in the present period which he sees as marking the decisive stage of the war. Comment:

 

 

Today's comment, plus the CIA once more.

Last month we were the first ever, to present an in depth research report with the geostrategic background history of Iran, and initial action taken by the US based on this information. And now, the Iran War Plans.

Not only does it make a difference how al-Zarqawi was given away:  Zarqawi's Successor Already Appointed Two Weeks Ago by bin-Laden.

While Ahmadinejad yesterday announced that  the US has been "defeated," former PM of Malaysia Mahathir, who had described the US as a "mass murderer" claims Iranians have trained 14,000 suicide bombers who "will not confine themselves to Iran."

The invitation to Iran's president reflects Moscow's and Beijing's attempts to raise the profile of the SCO as an international body, while sending a signal to Washington. Confirming this, we also explained in" shrinking U.S."why, we currently also follow what is happening with Iraq:

June 27, 2006: While we reported last week about The New Damascus-Tehran-Moscow Axis, our current investigation centers on the fact that:

Updated: Geopolitical Assessment of the World today.
Postscript: Europe Sucked into the Islamic Front?

When former PM of Malaysia Mahathir upon his return from a visit in Iran claimed 14,000 (Si’ite, not the often Sunni-) suicide bombers will not confine themselves to Iran, it should be reminded that this was the possible cause for the forced expulsion of former Dutch lawmaker Ayaan Hirsi Ali as it  followed an announcement by Iran's Revolutionary Guard the Netherlands would become a target if Ali’s next movie (still in production) comes out.

A bomb has ripped through a bus in southern Afghanistan, killing 10 workers at a coalition-run airport, as NATO warned it would not let the country revert to a "training camp for terrorists." We take a closer look at why:

 

 

An anti-terror raid in east London apparently foiled a plot to attack targets in the UK, with in addition 14 arrested in Toronto (targeting Canada). Caught between the need to reassure the British public and not giving away too much, British intelligence prefers to present British Islamist terror plotters and perpetrators as al-Qaeda sympathizers who operate at the local level, independent of the world jihadist organization. This view conflicts with the consensus of most counter-terror agencies, which see the various local cells as linked to a worldwide network engaged in a war of terror on the West. Around the same time as the arrests British Islamists launched a campaign (see poster on the right) branding British values as sick and depraved.


Canadian Islamists planned to storm parliament and behead the prime minister. Plus there was a network link with the UK group.

The statement from al Qaeda’s bin Laden no doubt was intended as a first salvo in an overall al Qaeda plan of attack for the current year, meaning we could see attacks in the region, and even in Europe, in the months ahead. Hence let’s look at this, plus related issues, also in the regions surrounding the Middle East:

May 11, 2006: China and the New Pearl Harbor. P.1: The Scenario

May 12, 2006: China and the New Pearl Harbor. P.2: The Assessment

May 13, 2006: China and the New Pearl Harbor. P.3: Today and Tomorrow  

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