Geopolitical Diary



25 June, 2014: What is President Putin up to:


20 Jan., 2012: A Turning Point in Syria (with rebel Free Syria Army supply line map):


26 Nov., 2011: Prospects for Intervention in Syria.


9 June, 2011: Yemen, Syria and Libya.


26 May, 2011: New Saudi-controlled republic in S. Yemen, and Obama turns down UK Libya-Afghanistan trade.


19 May, 2011: Libya's rebel commanders are in advanced secret negotiations with Qaddafi's military chiefs. Saudi Arabia to replace the League. And Moscow adopts anti-US forces in the Mid East, Persian Gulf and N. Africa. Continue


12 May, 2011: Saudi’s and Iran at loggerheads in Syria and Yemen, most likely president Barack Obama stepping in to denounce the Syrian president.


29 March, 2011: Where we looked at some of the reasons for intervention in Libya in the case of France and the U.K., today we do the same in the case of Italy. Also an analyses of the current situation on the ground plus what would happen if the Lybia rebels were armed by coalition forces (with maps). Continue


7 Febr., 2011: What next with Egypt: Focusing on the Opposition.


17 Nov, 2010: Probable Shakeup of Russian Spy Agencies Following Extradition of Viktor Bout.


17 Sept., 2010: Pakistan using the latest Kashmir unrest in a bid to undermine Indian control of its section of the disputed region.


23 April, 2010: Eurozone’s Debt crisis no longer just about Greece. Continue


10 April, 2010: While it will have little effect on the permission for the US to have a transit bases there, it is clear from the April 7 revolution in Kyrgyzstan, that Russia is capable of creating “color revolution”-style uprisings in countries where it wants to increase its influence. Why China might be concerned, plus Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, The Baltic States. Continue:


9 March, 2010: Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan:


14 Febr., 2010: Some 6,000 U.S. Marines, soldiers and Afghan National Army (ANA) troops launched a sustained assault on the town of Marjah in S.Afghanistan. Far from a monolithic movement however, the term “Taliban” encompasses everything from old hard-liners of the pre-9/11 Afghan regime to small groups that adopt the name as a ‘flag of convenience’. Plus the Afghan-Pakistani border is an unnatural political overlay on a fragmented landscape that is virtually impossible for a central government to control. Geostrategic Predicament of the War in Afghanistan:


10 Oct., 2009: Having mentioned this more than a year ago, the BBC today now confirms that Turkey and Armenia are preparing to sign a historic agreement normalizing relations.


July 23, 2009: Details behind the Iran file's bomb revealed. Including Tehran betting on Barack Obama as next US president. And clash between the US and Iran hovering in sight?


25 July 2009: China Today.


17 July, 2009:  Jemaah Islamiah is most likely behind the fatal blasts in two Jakarta hotels today. Jemaah Islamiah and Global Jihad.


23 June, 2009: Drawing attention to the upcoming elections on March 1, we posted a historical and sociological overview about Iran. Following the announcement of the 12 June election results, major street protests took place. What Next In Iran.


11 April, 2009: Thailand declares emergency, cancels Asian summit. Broader Implications.


24 Feb., 2009: Iran and the Protest in Saudi-Arabia Today. The Shi’ite-Suni Devide.


18 Febr., 2009: With the landmark Khmer Rouge show trial that started yesterday we investigated: The Paranoid Thruth of Khmer Rouge Terror.


17 Febr., 2009:  Suggested by us on Febr.5: Russia is hinting that it could take a harder stance vis a vis  Iran, but is waiting to see what kind of a deal Secretary of State Clinton offers when she meets with Deputy Foreign Minister Lavrov in Geneva. Continue...


6 Febr., 2009:  The New US Administration and Sub-Saharan Africa.


10 Jan., 2009: The Problems with Israel and Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel.


7 Jan., 2009: The Problems with Israel and Palestine P2: Geostrategy of the Palestinians.


5 Jan., 2009: Having already commented on the Israeli military incursion into the Gaza Strip which grabbed the headlines this week, we investigated P1:  Geostrategy of Israel.


16 Dec., 2008: Case Study Indian Subcontinent Today P.3 of 3: The Pakistan/India Military Imbalance.


14 Dec., 2008: Case Study Indian Subcontinent Today P.2 of 3: Kashmiri Groups Cut Loose.


12 Dec., 2008: While so far we have seen New Delhi threaten to take action, with nothing measurable that could be convincingly described as preparation for a war. We however, still expect actions that take the form of unilateral precision strikes inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir along with special-forces action on ground. In this context we have prepared a case study about the current Geostrategic environment. Case Study Indian Subcontinent Today P.1 of 3:  From Geography to Crisis in Indian-Pakistani Relations.


7 Dec., 2008: Following a conference on Oct. 25 it is expected that Ruthenians, supported by Russia, will declare independence from Ukraine during the first quarter of 2009. Yet Ruthenian secession also holds strategic importance for Slovakia Poland and Romania. Enter for Case Study:


3 Dec., 2008: The Intelligence War Behind The Mumbai Siege and India’s Military Option Today.


17 Oct., 2008: Following an assessment of Europe and East Asia, we turn our sights to Latin America. As a region that has been relatively isolated from the immediate effects of the collapse of international financial sectors, a significant slowdown is to be expected. Continue...


6 Sept., 2008: Today Turkey's President Abdullah Gul has made a landmark visit to Armenia. Due to Turkey’s denial of an Armenian genocide, normally such contact would take place. In fact it is only recently that also Germany’s historical role in the Armenian drama is emerging. And one reason why Germany was so complacent in the matter might have been because Wilhelm II hatched a plan where Turkey would be colonized by Germans. Case Study:


7 Aug., 2008: France has rejected Rwandan claims accusing French officials of playing an active role in the Rwandan genocide of 1994. But what are the real facts? Case Study The French Rwanda File:


4 Aug., 2008: While smog still obscures Beijing's stadium an assault kills 16 four days before the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. Case Study The Uigur and Central Asia File.


28 July, 2008:  After Tuesday's serial explosions in Jaipur, India has again blamed "the foreign hand”. Who and what is behind the latest two attacks in India?


Note Jan. 31, 2008: South Korean and U.S. officials met on Wednesday to discuss ways to rebuild momentum in the stalled six-party process to denuclearize North Korea. Comment.


24 Jan., 2008: Hamas de-facto took over a strip of Egypt under the cover of sending thousands of civilians shopping across the border. Egypt in turn, must maintain a stable relationship with Hamas for fear of inciting the Muslim Brotherhood within its own borders. Exclusive: The Hamas File.


End of the games, 1,432 days to go for London:


7 Nov., 2007:  Georgia's Instability to Increase.


Tomorrow we will continue with our case study about Turkey. Introducing this today with a comment about the current relationships between Turkey and Syria.


24 Oct., 2007: A momentary resolution on the PKK issue does not solve the underlying issue for Turkey, the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, which Ankara opposes:

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit Ankara next week, meaning high level negotiations have started with apparently the US willing to join in and figt the PKK -- Turkey has leverage as pointed out. In fact currently the Russians and Iranians are baiting each other while the Americans are sounding out the Russians, and today, the Iranians are entertaining an American offer to negotiate on Iraq. Where all this will develop is of course entirely up in the air.


23 Oct., 2007: From Turkey to Ahmadinejad


23 Oct., 2007: While Turkey is willing to talk in order to let its terms known, it is clear by now that Turkey has become a rgonal force to be reckoned with. However what is coming to the surface now comes directly from Turkey’s Cold War era. Contested Identity: Cold War Turkey


22 Oct., 2007: President of Iraq is claiming that the PKK is to announce ceasefire this evening, the United States in addition just called on the Iraqi central government today (Oct. 22), to halt Kurdish rebel attacks against Turkey, saying Washington does not want the conflict to broaden.  Turkish troops head toward Iraq. Comment:


P.1 16 Oct., 2007: As expected (our note Oct. 15) Putin arrived well, with Iran now seeking Russian help fending off new UN sanctions. Comment:


15 Oct., 2007: Like we first referred to in our Turkey forign policy analysises from on Oct.12, a pending resolution before the U.S. Congress that calls the 1915 killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks genocide has brought to light a growing strain in U.S.-Turkish relations. Yet now there is more...


12 Oct., 2007: While along with Turkey's Consumers' Union today asking the country citizens to boycott U.S.-manufactured products, and Turkye’s is recalling its ambassador to Washington, we now take a deeper look at how Ankara’s attitude towars foreign policy came to be Turkey's Contested Foreign Policy P.2: US and Middle East:


In September (see below left) we mentioned that the Putin visit "could" give the U.S. nightmares. And whereby this was obviously vague, today this has become more transparent (Attack On Iran Is An Attack On Russia), continue...


6 Sept., 2007: Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said today that Damascus is giving serious consideration to to a midnight incident in which an Israeli overflight  into northeastern Syria greeted by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Syria thus can be expected to make much of the incursion in order to hype its air defenses. Comment:


31 Aug., 2007: Azerbaijan finds itself in a pressure cooker as Russia and Iran attempt to redefine their neighborhoods. Comment.


17 Aug., 2007: Russia is engaged in a systematic campaign to both reassert its sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union and take advantage of U.S. preoccupation in the Middle East in order to redefine regional relationships.Russia is at a balance point, and Ukraine is the key. If Putin succeeds in pulling Ukraine into the Russian orbit over the course of the next six weeks, then Russia will have secured its core. Comment:


4 Aug., 2007: Future Wars from the Point of View of America and its Allies.


(A next section will do the same with from the point of view of Europe and its allies, and finally we will return to Asia where of course we just completed an excellent introduction by stating with past, actions, there.)


Thailand and S.E.Asia Today into 2007.
Two Pictures from The Bangkok Post August 10, 2007. Left: frontpage, small retailers protest the building of a superstore. Right: anti-coup protesters send of arrow messages.


18 Nov., 2006: To this day, the Turkish government refuses to acknowledge the Armenian genocide. This is strange, since the historical evidence of what happened is plentiful. Spiteful , Turkey on Nov. 16, suspended all military ties with France, a move that should be also seen related to the warning two weeks earlier from the EC. The Armenian genocide however also offers an insight in what continued during WWII:


16 Nov., 2006: Today following a breakfast with Putin in Moscow, Bush arrived in Singapore. Thus we ask East is East? Case Study: Singapore's neo-Confusianism. Plus a short overview of the geostrategic dynamic Bush will encounter during his  travels to East Asia.


17 Oct., 2006: Oceanic Powers: The U.S. Marine Corps will participate in unprecedented exercises with the Sri Lankan navy at the end of October. Update.


Reminescent of what happened during the Tianmen square aftermath, in this case, four thousand (4,000) monks detained in Burma's main city of Rangoon, will be sent to prisons in the far north of the country.

The murder of a Japanese reporter triggered speculation that Tokyo could suspend humanitarian aid to the country, while on the same day another report claimed that the military junta destroyed more than 3,000 villages in eastern Burma during a campaign against ethnic Karen rebels--blocking humanitarian assistance to that region. Update 16 Oct.: Following the EU, Japan is the first country in Asia to take a step that affects the Junta.


4 Oct., 2006: The mention in our Sept. 26 geopolitical overview "Russia must secure Ukraine" and that in the case of Georgia "Russians will be unpredictable" the writing on the wall for this is now in place. Comment.


From Bill Clinton to 9/11: The enigmas of double agents.


19 Sept., 2006: From the UK Financial Times to China, Belgium was in the news today. And although we made a silent suggestion it might have been created along colonial lines, now, a break-up?


While The Wall Street Journal claims that: The Supreme National Security Council of Iran chose the August 22 date, “for a very precise reason.” (1) The ferocity of the latest fighting may signal the ensuing Lebanese political battle, will soon begin. But as this goes, so goes the larger Middle East: Plus, will Aug. 22, 2006, be ‘apocalyptic’? Enter:


In August, the largest Sufi order, the Qadri in Iraq, announced the formation of a militia for fighting the Americans, to be called after its founder the Jihad Brigades of Abd Qader Jiliani. Overview Iraq Today:


23 July, 2006: Geopolitical Assessment of the World today.


27 June, 2006: While we reported last week about The New Damascus-Tehran-Moscow Axis, our current investigation centers on the fact that: